Captive breeding cannot sustain migratory Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii without hunting controls

To evaluate the potential contribution of captive breeding to the conservation of exploited migratory Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii, we estimated release numbers required to stabilise a population in a hunting concession (14,300 km2), under scenarios of local licensed hunting and flyway-scale protection. We developed a population model, initially 2350 adult females, re-sampling parameters measured through fieldwork and satellite telemetry, over 1000 iterations. With current flyway-scale unregulated harvest, and without any licensed hunting in the concession, populations declined at 9.4% year-1 (95% CI: –18.9 to 0% year-1); in this scenario a precautionary approach (85% probability λ≥ 1.0) to population stabilisation required releasing 3100 captive-bred females year-1 (131% x initial wild numbers). A precautionary approach to sustainable hunting of 100 females year-1 required releasing 3600 females year-1 (153% initial wild numbers); but if interventions reduced flyway-scale hunting/trapping mortality by 60% or 80%, sustaining this quota required releasing 900 or 400 females year-1, 38% and 17% of initial wild numbers, respectively. Parameter uncertainty increased precautionary numbers for release, but even with reduced precaution (50% probability λ≥ 1.0), sustainable hunting of 100 females year-1 required annual releases of 2200 females (94% wild) without other measures, but 300 (13%) or no (0%) females under scenarios of a 60% or 80% reduction in flyway-scale hunting/trapping. Captive breeding cannot alone sustain migrant populations of wild C. macqueenii because it risks replacement and domestication. Trade and exploitation must be restricted to avoid either extinction or domestication. For exploited populations, supplementation by captive breeding should be used with caution

What can the abundance of Grey Parrots on Príncipe Island tell us about large parrot conservation?

While populations of the Endangered Grey Parrot Psittacus erithacus have collapsed across its range, the species remains remarkably abundant on the island of Príncipe, Gulf of Guinea. We examine how aspects of its ecology interplay with local environmental conditions, to inform conservation strategies for this species and other large parrots. On Príncipe, parrots breed in large trees of common species, with nest densities (42 ± 34 km-2) greatly exceeding those for any comparably sized parrot. Productivity is high (1.9 chicks per cavity), probably reflecting the absence of nest competitors and predators. Food sources are abundant and much of the island is inaccessible to trappers, so many nests are successful each year. Historically harvest has involved taking only chicks from trees in a few traditional patches. These conditions have combined to allow Grey Parrots to thrive on Príncipe, while elsewhere nest trees are timber targets, nest competition and nest predation are likely to be more intense, trapping is indiscriminate, and few areas remain unexploited by trappers. Preservation of large trees as breeding refugia, and vigilance against the indiscriminate trapping of adult birds, are identified as key conditions to stabilize and recover mainland Grey Parrot populations and indeed large parrots generally, given their very similar ecological traits and anthropogenic circumstances

Deforestation dynamics in an endemic-rich mountain system: Conservation successes and challenges in West Java 1990–2015

While much has been published on recent rates of forest loss in the Sundaic lowlands, deforestation rates and patterns on Java’s endemic-rich mountains have been rather neglected. We used nearly 1000 Landsat images to examine spatio-altitudinal and temporal patterns of forest loss in montane West Java over the last 28 years, and the effectiveness of protected areas in halting deforestation over that period. Around 40% of forest has been lost since 1988, the bulk occurring pre-2000 (2.5% per annum), falling to 1% per annum post-2007. Most deforestation has occurred at lower altitudes (<1000 m above sea level), both as attrition of the edges of forested mountain blocks as well as the near-total clearance of lower-altitude forested areas. Deforestation within protected areas was rife pre-2000, but greatly decreased thereafter, almost ceasing post-2007 in protected areas of high International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status. While this trend is welcome, it must be stressed that the area of remaining forest is only 5234 km2, that most accessible lower-altitude forest has already disappeared, and that the extant montane forest is largely fragmented and isolated. The biological value of these forests is huge and without strong intervention we anticipate imminent loss of populations of taxa such as the Javan Slow Loris Nycticebus javanicus and Javan Green Magpie Cissa thalassina

Consistent nest-site selection across habitats increases fitness in Asian Houbara

Nest-site choice profoundly influences reproductive success and the survival of incubating adults. Asian Houbara (Chlamydotis macqueenii) nest in subtly contrasting habitats where the main cause of nest failure is predation. We examined nest-site selection across three semi-arid shrub habitats that differed in vegetation structure and hypothesized that increased concealment would reduce nest predation. We quantified vegetation structure at 210 nests and 194 random control sites at two scales, the ‘nest area’ (50 m radius, considering mean ‘shrub height’ and mean ‘shrub frequency’) and ‘nest scrape’ (2 m radius,  considering a ‘concealment index’). Variance ratio tests showed variance in both shrub height and concealment index were lower at nests than at random sites, indicating non-random selection. Analysis of the probability of nest occurrence for nest area indicated consistent selection of intermediate shrub heights (shrub height + shrub height2) in the Astragalus, Salsola arbuscula and S. rigida shrub assemblages (29.5–31.5 cm), although this was not supported statistically in S. rigida as the vegetation available was already similar to the optimal nest structure. Nest survival analysis, controlling for date, showed that shrub height (but not its quadratic term) in the nest area reduced nest predation rate. Females likely traded off nesting in even taller shrubs that may confer greater nest success against the ability to see approaching danger and thus to reduce the risk of being depredated themselves (head height during vigilance when incubating is ~30cm), as we have no records of females being depredated on the nest. At the nest scrape, females strongly selected better concealed locations, although the concealment index did not affect nest success. We suggest that concealing the scrape among shrubs may have other roles, such as thermoregulation

Genetic diversity and divergence in the endangered Cape Verde warbler Acrocephalus brevipennis

Genetic factors play an important role in the long-term persistence of populations and species, and conservation strategies should take such factors into account. We use neutral molecular markers to assess diversity and divergence between the three remaining island populations of a little-studied endemic passerine, the Cape Verde warbler Acrocephalus brevipennis. Variation at both microsatellite loci and the cytochrome b gene reveal low diversity within the species overall, but considerable divergence among the populations on Santiago, Fogo and São Nicolau islands. The genetic markers show a gradient of genetic diversity with population size, with the smallest population of S. Nicolau being the least diverse, and the largest, Santiago, the most diverse. The more geographically isolated population on S. Nicolau is also more divergent from Santiago and Fogo than these two are from each other. The Cape Verde warbler diverged from its sister species, the greater swamp warbler Acrocephalus rufescens, within the last million years, and the three populations became isolated from one another 165,000–199,000 years ago. There is also evidence of population bottlenecks, especially on S. Nicolau. This population seems to have decreased during the last century, with potential for further decreases and even extinction. As the three populations are genetically distinct, with no evidence of gene flow between them, we argue they should be treated as separate management units for the successful conservation of this species

Multi‐decadal land use impacts across the vast range of an iconic threatened species

Abstract Aim To explore spatiotemporal changes in Hyacinth Macaw Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus distribution and the impacts of land use change over 25 years, across its vast range in central/eastern South America. Location Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, South America, covering almost 3 million km2. Methods We use a novel, multi-temporal species distribution model, to combine both year-specific occurrence records and land use/cover data in a single model that is subsequently projected over a land cover time series. We investigate changes in geographic range over 25 years and potential drivers of range extent at multiple spatial scales (10 and 30 km) and time-lags (current and 10 years previously). We also assess protected area coverage and impacts from degazettement within the remaining range and highlight priority areas to search for undiscovered populations. Results The modelled range of the species increased by 75,000 km2 to over 500,000 km2 between 1995 and 2019, during which period agriculture and pasture increased by 600,000 km2 within the species' extent of occurrence. Habitat suitability was influenced most strongly by distribution of palms, forest cover and changes in pasture over 10 years and usually by predictors measured at larger spatial scales. Just 8% of the macaw's modelled range falls within protected areas, and more than 20,500 km2 of protected areas overlapping with the range have been degazetted in the last 40 years. We highlight key areas to search for undiscovered populations in under-sampled and remote areas, especially led by community citizen science initiatives involving indigenous groups and protected area staff. Main conclusions Novel modelling methods, combining multi-temporal occurrence records and land cover data, appropriate for small sample sizes per year, have revealed habitat dynamics and changes to the range of this threatened species over 25 years. The method may have wide applicability for a range of species, including elusive and poorly studied species

Assessing range–wide conservation status change in an unmonitored widespread African bird species.

ABSTRACT Aim With the exception of South Africa there are no systematic, long-term, large-scale bird monitoring programmes in Africa, and for much of the continent the most comprehensive available data for most species are incidental occurrence records. Can such data be used to assess range-wide conservation status of widespread low-density species? We examine this using Kori Bustard Ardeotis kori, a large, easily identifiable species with an extensive African range. Location Southern and East Africa, 14 countries. Methods A comprehensive and systematic review of published and unpublished sources provided 1948 unique locality records spanning the years 1863-2009; these included 410 non-atlas records and 97 historical (pre-1970) records. Range-size changes were examined by comparing minimum convex polygons to quantify Extent of Occurrence pre-and post-1970, and by testing whether more historical records fell outside the recent (post-1970) 95% probability kernel than expected by chance. Additionally, qualitative evidence of changes in abundance was obtained from historical published accounts and contemporary assessments by in-country experts. Results Since the late 19th century, range-size (measured as Extent of Occurrence) has contracted, by 21% in East Africa and 8% in southern Africa. There is strong qualitative evidence of considerable pre-and post-1970 population declines in all range states, except Zambia (slight increase) and Angola (trend unclear). In some countries, declines occurred from the early 1900s. Thus, while relatively modest change in range-size has occurred in over 100 years, numbers have greatly reduced throughout the species&apos; range. Main conclusions Our methodology allowed objective appraisal of continentwide Kori status. Despite lacking quantitative population estimates and trends, and poor understanding of the species&apos; autecology, common issues for many African species, incidental occurrence records can be used to assess range-wide changes in status. We recommend that this or similar approaches be applied to other widespread low-density species that probably also have rapidly declining populations despite apparently stable range extents

Spatio-temporal dynamics of consumer demand driving the Asian Songbird Crisis

Many South-East Asian bird species are in rapid decline due to offtake for the cage-bird trade, a phenomenon driven largely by consumption in Indonesia and labelled the ‘Asian Songbird Crisis’. Interventions aimed at reducing this offtake require an understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the trade. We surveyed the bird-keeping habits of over 3000 households from 92 urban and rural communities across six provinces on Java, Indonesia, and compared prevalence and patterns of bird-keeping with those from surveys undertaken a decade ago. We estimate that one-third of Java's 36 million households keep 66–84 million cage-birds. Despite over half of all birds owned being non-native species, predominantly lovebirds (Agapornis spp.), the majority of bird-keepers (76%) owned native species. Ownership levels were significantly higher in urban than rural areas, and were particularly high in the eastern provinces of the island. Overall levels of bird ownership have increased over the past decade, and species composition has changed. Notably, lovebirds showed a seven-fold increase in popularity while ownership of genera including groups with globally threatened species such as leafbirds (Chloropsis spp.) and white-eyes (Zosterops spp.) also rose sharply. The volume of some locally threatened birds estimated to be in ownership (e.g., >3 million White-rumped Shama Kittacincla malabarica) cannot have been supplied from Java's forests and research on supply from other islands and Java's growing commercial breeding industry is a priority. Determining temporal and spatial patterns of ownership is a crucial first step towards finding solutions to this persistent, pervasive and adaptive threat to the regional avifauna

Notes on the behaviour, plumage and distribution of the White-tailed Swallow Hirundo megaensis

The White-tailed Swallow Hirundo megaensis is a threatened and poorly known bird endemic to southern Ethiopia, where it is restricted to a small area of Acacia savanna. Despite the paucity of previous nest records, we found 67 nests in the years 2010–14, commonly in village huts lived in by people, and report the first confirmation of nesting (two certain records) in termite mounds. Its nests are small mud cups lined with grass and animal hair, fixed to roof joists and similar to those of its sister species, the Pearl-breasted Swallow H. dimidiata of southern Africa, although it appears to lay larger clutches (3–4 pure white eggs) and breed less frequently, producing one brood in each of its two rain-driven breeding seasons (April–June and October–November). The same nests are reportedly used in these two seasons, presumably by the same pairs. Incubation lasts 16–17 days, with some broods showing clearly smaller chicks and hence presumably asynchronous hatching. Study of nestlings in the hand and museum skins confirmed that juveniles can be determined by their shorter tails, browner heads and frequently also wings, and reduced white in the tail. Although birds are typically seen singly or in pairs, flocks of up to 50, sometimes mixed with other hirundines, can occur. The breeding range appears to be almost identical to that of the Ethiopian Bush-crow Zavattariornis stresemanni but regular sightings of White-tailed Swallows since 2005 at the Liben Plain, 120 km to the east of the core area, suggest that the birds are frequent visitors there.We are grateful to the numerous funding bodies which have supported this research over several years: NERC, RSPB, British Birdfair, African Bird Club, British Ornithologists’ Union, Gesellschaft für Tropenornithologie, Tim Whitmore Zoology Fund, Magdalene College (Cambridge), Cambridge Philosophical Society, and BirdLife Preventing Extinctions Programme; and especially to Julian Francis. We also thank Robert Prys-Jones at the Natural History Museum (NHMUK) for access to specimens; Les Colley for his photograph used in Fig. 5; Stefanie Rick for her excellent drawings used in Fig. 9; Steve Rooke (Sunbird Tours), Bernard, Willem and Sjoerd Oosterbaan, Simon Busuttil, Merid Gabremichael and Claire Spottiswoode for providing additional information and sightings; Alazar Dakar, Abiy Dange, Birhan Dessalegn, Solomon Desta, Okotu Dida, Ali Guche, Sam Jones, Gufu Kashina, Stuart Marsden, Tesfaye Mekonnen, Samson Zelleke and many others including all the staff of Borana National Park for help with fieldwork; Angela Turner and John Atkins for their services as referees; and the Borana villagers who so kindly allowed us into their homes to study the White-tailed Swallow’s nests and without whose hospitality our knowledge of this species would be much poorer.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from African Bird Club

Spatio-temporal dynamics of consumer demand driving the Asian Songbird Crisis

Many South-East Asian bird species are in rapid decline due to offtake for the cage-bird trade, a phenomenon driven largely by consumption in Indonesia and labelled the ‘Asian Songbird Crisis’. Interventions aimed at reducing this offtake require an understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the trade. We surveyed the bird-keeping habits of over 3000 households from 92 urban and rural communities across six provinces on Java, Indonesia, and compared prevalence and patterns of bird-keeping with those from surveys undertaken a decade ago. We estimate that one-third of Java's 36 million households keep 66–84 million cage-birds. Despite over half of all birds owned being non-native species, predominantly lovebirds (Agapornis spp.), the majority of bird-keepers (76%) owned native species. Ownership levels were significantly higher in urban than rural areas, and were particularly high in the eastern provinces of the island. Overall levels of bird ownership have increased over the past decade, and species composition has changed. Notably, lovebirds showed a seven-fold increase in popularity while ownership of genera including groups with globally threatened species such as leafbirds (Chloropsis spp.) and white-eyes (Zosterops spp.) also rose sharply. The volume of some locally threatened birds estimated to be in ownership (e.g., >3 million White-rumped Shama Kittacincla malabarica) cannot have been supplied from Java's forests and research on supply from other islands and Java's growing commercial breeding industry is a priority. Determining temporal and spatial patterns of ownership is a crucial first step towards finding solutions to this persistent, pervasive and adaptive threat to the regional avifauna