Identifying predictors of international fisheries conflict

Marine capture fishery resources are declining, and demand for them is rising. These trends are suspected to incite conflict, but their effects have not been quantitatively examined. We applied a multi-model ensemble approach to a global database of international fishery conflicts between 1974 and 2016 to test the supply-induced scarcity hypothesis (diminishing supplies of fishery resources increase fisheries conflict), the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis (rising demand for fishery resources increases fisheries conflict), and three alternative political and economic hypotheses. While no single indicator was able to fully explain international conflict over fishery resources, we found a positive relationship between increased conflict over fishery resources and higher levels of per capita GDP for the period 1975–1996. For the period 1997–2016, we found evidence supporting the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis, and the notion that an increase in supply of fishery resources is linked to an increase in conflict occurrence. By identifying significant predictors of international fisheries conflict, our analysis provides useful information for policy approaches for conflict anticipation and management

Comparing spatial patterns of marine vessels between vessel-tracking data and satellite imagery

Monitoring marine use is essential to effective management but is extremely challenging, particularly where capacity and resources are limited. To overcome these limitations, satellite imagery has emerged as a promising tool for monitoring marine vessel activities that are difficult to observe through publicly available vessel-tracking data. However, the broader use of satellite imagery is hindered by the lack of a clear understanding of where and when it would bring novel information to existing vessel-tracking data. Here, we outline an analytical framework to (1) automatically detect marine vessels in optical satellite imagery using deep learning and (2) statistically contrast geospatial distributions of vessels with the vessel-tracking data. As a proof of concept, we applied our framework to the coastal regions of Peru, where vessels without the Automatic Information System (AIS) are prevalent. Quantifying differences in spatial information between disparate datasets—satellite imagery and vessel-tracking data—offers insight into the biases of each dataset and the potential for additional knowledge through data integration. Our study lays the foundation for understanding how satellite imagery can complement existing vessel-tracking data to improve marine oversight and due diligence

A rapid assessment of co-benefits and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals

Achieving the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) results in many ecological, social, and economic consequences that are inter-related. Understanding relationships between sustainability goals and determining their interactions can help prioritize effective and efficient policy options. This paper presents a framework that integrates existing knowledge from literature and expert opinions to rapidly assess the relationships between one SDG goal and another. Specifically, given the important role of the oceans in the world's social-ecological systems, this study focuses on how SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and the targets within that goal, contributes to other SDG goals. This framework differentiates relationships based on compatibility (co-benefit, trade-off, neutral), the optional nature of achieving one goal in attaining another, and whether these relationships are context dependent. The results from applying this framework indicate that oceans SDG targets are related to all other SDG goals, with two ocean targets (of seven in total) most related across all other SDG goals. Firstly, the ocean SDG target to increase economic benefits to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and least developed countries for sustainable marine uses has positive relationships across all SDGs. Secondly, the ocean SDG target to eliminate overfishing, illegal and destructive fishing practices is a necessary pre-condition for achieving the largest number of other SDG targets. This study highlights the importance of the oceans in achieving sustainable development. The rapid assessment framework can be applied to other SDGs to comprehensively map out the subset of targets that are also pivotal in achieving sustainable development

Towards greater transparency and coherence in funding for sustainable marine fisheries and healthy oceans

This final manuscript in the special issue on “Funding for ocean conservation and sustainable fisheries” is the result of a dialogue aimed at connecting lead authors of the special issue manuscripts with relevant policymakers and practitioners. The dialogue took place over the course of a two-day workshop in December 2018, and this “coda” manuscript seeks to distil thinking around a series of key recurring topics raised throughout the workshop. These topics are collected into three broad categories, or “needs”: 1) a need for transparency, 2) a need for coherence, and 3) a need for improved monitoring of project impacts. While the special issue sought to collect new research into the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of funding for ocean conservation and sustainable fisheries, the insights collected during the workshop have helped to highlight remaining knowledge gaps. Therefore, each of the three “needs” identified within this manuscript is followed by a series of questions that the workshop participants identified as warranting further attention as part of a future research agenda. The crosscutting nature of many of the issues raised as well as the rapid pace of change that characterizes this funding landscape both pointed to a broader need for continued dialogue and study that reaches across the communities of research, policy and practice.S

Nation-wide hierarchical and spatially-explicit framework to characterize seagrass meadows in New-Caledonia, and its potential application to the Indo-Pacific

Despite their ecological role and multiple contributions to human societies, the distribution of Indo-Pacific seagrasses remains poorly known in many places. Herein, we outline a hierarchical spatially-explicit assessment framework to derive nation-wide synoptic knowledge of the distribution of seagrass species and communities. We applied the framework to New Caledonia (southwest Pacific Ocean) and its 36,200 km2 of reefs and lagoons. The framework is primarily field-based but can leverage various habitat maps derived from remote sensing. Field data collection can be stratified by map products and retrospectively contribute to developing new seagrass distribution maps. Airborne and satellite remote sensing alone do not allow for the spatial generalisation of the finest attributes (species distribution and types of seagrass beds), but staged stratified field sampling provides synoptic views of these attributes. Using three examples, we discuss how the hierarchical and spatial information generated from this framework's application can inform conservation and management objectives

Aerobic growth index (AGI): An index to understand the impacts of ocean warming and deoxygenation on global marine fisheries resources

Ocean warming and deoxygenation are affecting the physiological performance of marine species by increasing their oxygen demand while reducing oxygen supply. Impacts on organisms (e.g., growth and reproduction) can eventually affect entire populations, altering macroecological dynamics and shifting species’ distribution ranges. To quantify the effect of warming and deoxygenation on marine organisms, Penn et al. (2018) and Deutsch et al. (2020) developed two metabolic indices that integrate physiological, biogeographic and climatic data. Here, we develop an alternative index, referred to as Aerobic Growth Index (AGI) based on an approach that integrates the von Bertalanffy growth and metabolic theory. We compare the results derived from the application of AGI with those of the two previously published metabolic indices for six species: Atlantic blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), sharpsnout seabream (Diplodus puntazzo), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Australian spiny lobster (Panulirus cygnus), red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) and common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis). The baseline (1971–2000) habitat suitability values of AGI are significantly and positively correlated with both metabolic indices (R2 ≥ 0.92). All three indices also show similar spatial patterns and magnitudes of viable habitat loss by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) relative to baseline conditions under a high greenhouse gas trajectory (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Our results support the applicability and use of AGI to better understand the impacts of warming and deoxygenation on global marine fishery resources. Given the uncertainties surrounding mechanisms linking temperature, oxygen and biogeography, there is a need for different indicators to account for these uncertainties in climate change projections

Adaptive management for the sustainable exploitation of lagoon resources in remote islands: lessons from a massive El Niño-induced giant clam bleaching event in the Tuamotu atolls (French Polynesia)

Small-scale mariculture of high-value species for trade in remote islands can offer valuable alternative livelihoods to local communities. The endangered giant clam species Tridacna maxima is naturally abundant in some atolls in French Polynesia (FP) and has been the focus of commercial mariculture activities since 2012. Shortly after spat collectors became operational in two atoll lagoons, FP rose to become one of the main exporters of giant clams for the aquarium trade. However, this activity has been threatened recently by a mass clam-bleaching event triggered by the 2015–2016 El Niño. This study reviews the roles that international (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) and national regulatory frameworks play in the development of this activity in a small island context, and how they can indirectly promote better science and monitoring in order to inform adaptive management strategies. The links between the nine main groups of stakeholders show the necessary adaptation measures required to mitigate climate-driven mortalities. While this case study remains specific to giant clam farming in FP, general lessons are provided that could help in mitigating economic impacts from climate-related events on other islands

Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios

Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fishery conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends, and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (“scramble for the Atlantic”), the East China Sea (“the remodeled empire”), the coast of West Africa (“oceanic decolonization”), and the Arctic (“polar renaissance”). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security