Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Synthesis and solid-state characterisation of 4-substituted methylidene oxindoles

Background 4-substituted methylidene oxindoles are pharmacologically important. Detailed analysis and comparison of all the interactions present in crystal structures is necessary to understand how these structures arise. The XPac procedure allows comparison of complete crystal structures of related families of compounds to identify assemblies that are mainly the result of close-packing as well as networks of directed interactions. Results Five 4-substituted methylidene oxindoles have been synthesized by the Knoevenagel condensation of oxindole with para-substituted aromatic aldehydes and were characterized in the solid state by x-ray crystallography. Hence, the structures of (3E)-3-(4-Bromobenzylidene)-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one, 3a, (3E)-3-(4-Chlorobenzylidene)-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one, 3b, (3E)-3-(4-Methoxybenzylidene)-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one, 3c, (3E)-3-(4-Methylbenzylidene)-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one, 3d and (3E)-3-(4-Nitrobenzylidene)-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one, 3e, were elucidated using single crystal X-ray crystallography. Conclusions A hydrogen bonded dimer molecular assembly or supramolecular construct was identified in all the crystal structures examined along with a further four 1D supramolecular constructs which were common to at least two of the family of structures studied. The 1D supramolecular constructs indicate that once the obvious strong interaction is satisfied to form hydrogen bonded dimer it is the conventionally weaker interactions, such as steric bulk and edge-to-face interactions which compete to influence the final structure formation

Astrocytic Ion Dynamics: Implications for Potassium Buffering and Liquid Flow

We review modeling of astrocyte ion dynamics with a specific focus on the implications of so-called spatial potassium buffering, where excess potassium in the extracellular space (ECS) is transported away to prevent pathological neural spiking. The recently introduced Kirchoff-Nernst-Planck (KNP) scheme for modeling ion dynamics in astrocytes (and brain tissue in general) is outlined and used to study such spatial buffering. We next describe how the ion dynamics of astrocytes may regulate microscopic liquid flow by osmotic effects and how such microscopic flow can be linked to whole-brain macroscopic flow. We thus include the key elements in a putative multiscale theory with astrocytes linking neural activity on a microscopic scale to macroscopic fluid flow.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figure

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK 'Alert Level 4' phase of the B-MaP-C study

BACKGROUND: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. METHODS: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated 'standard' or 'COVID-altered', in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. FINDINGS: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had 'COVID-altered' management. 'Bridging' endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2-9%) using 'NHS Predict'. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of 'COVID-altered' management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown

Synthesis and Evaluation of a 2,11-Cembranoid-Inspired Library.

The 2,11-cembranoid family of natural products has been used as inspiration for the synthesis of a structurally simplified, functionally diverse library of octahydroisobenzofuran-based compounds designed to augment a typical medicinal chemistry library screen. Ring-closing metathesis, lactonisation and SmI2 -mediated methods were exemplified and applied to the installation of a third ring to mimic the nine-membered ring of the 2,11-cembranoids. The library was assessed for aqueous solubility and permeability, with a chemical-space analysis performed for comparison to the family of cembranoid natural products and a sample set of a screening library. Preliminary investigations in cancer cells showed that the simpler scaffolds could recapitulate the reported anti-migratory activity of the natural products

A survey of haptics in serious gaming

Serious gaming often requires high level of realism for training and learning purposes. Haptic technology has been proved to be useful in many applications with an additional perception modality complementary to the audio and the vision. It provides novel user experience to enhance the immersion of virtual reality with a physical control-layer. This survey focuses on the haptic technology and its applications in serious gaming. Several categories of related applications are listed and discussed in details, primarily on haptics acts as cognitive aux and main component in serious games design. We categorize haptic devices into tactile, force feedback and hybrid ones to suit different haptic interfaces, followed by description of common haptic gadgets in gaming. Haptic modeling methods, in particular, available SDKs or libraries either for commercial or academic usage, are summarized. We also analyze the existing research difficulties and technology bottleneck with haptics and foresee the future research directions

Tinnitus referral pathways within the National Health Service in England: a survey of their perceived effectiveness among audiology staff

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the UK, audiology services deliver the majority of tinnitus patient care, but not all patients experience the same level of service. In 2009, the Department of Health released a Good Practice Guide to inform commissioners about key aspects of a quality tinnitus service in order to promote equity of tinnitus patient care in UK primary care, audiology, and in specialist multi-disciplinary centres. The purpose of the present research was to evaluate utilisation and opinions on pathways for the referral of tinnitus patients to and from English Audiology Departments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed all audiology staff engaged in providing tinnitus services across England. A 36-item questionnaire was mailed to 351 clinicians in all 163 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts identified as having a tinnitus service. 138 clinicians responded. The results presented here describe experiences and opinions of the current patient pathways to and from the audiology tinnitus service.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most common referral pathway was from general practice to a hospital-based Ear, Nose & Throat department and from there to a hospital-based audiology department (64%). Respondents considered the NHS tinnitus referral process to be generally effective (67%), but expressed needs for improving GP referral and patients' access to services. 'Open access' to the audiology clinic was rarely an option for patients (9%), nor was the opportunity to access specialist counselling provided by clinical psychology (35%). To decrease the number of inappropriate referrals, 40% of respondents called for greater awareness by referrers about the audiology tinnitus service.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Respondents in the present survey were generally satisfied with the tinnitus referral system. However, they highlighted some potential targets for service improvement including 1] faster and more appropriate referral from GPs, to be achieved through education on tinnitus referral criteria, 2] improved access to psychological services through audiologist training, and 3] ongoing support from tinnitus support groups, national charities, or open access to the tinnitus clinic for existing patients.</p

Controlled experiments in lithic technology and function

From the earliest manifestations of tool production, technologies have played a fundamental role in the acquisition of different resources and are representative of daily activities in the lives of ancient humans, such as hunting (stone-tipped spears) and meat processing (chipped stone tools) (Lombard 2005; McPherron et al. 2010; Lombard and Phillipson 2010; Brown et al. 2012; Wilkins et al. 2012; Sahle et al. 2013; Joordens et al. 2015; Ambrose 2001; Stout 2001). Yet many questions remain, such as how and why technological changes took place in earlier populations, and how technological traditions, innovations, and novelties enabled hominins to survive and disperse across the globe (Klein 2000; McBrearty and Brooks 2000; Henshilwood et al. 2001; Marean et al. 2007; Brown et al. 2012; Režek et al. 2018).Projekt DEALinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

[18F]AV-1451 PET in behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia due to MAPT mutation

The validation of tau radioligands could improve the diagnosis of frontotemporal lobar degeneration and the assessment of disease-modifying therapies. Here, we demonstrate that binding of the tau radioligand [18F]AV-1451 was significantly abnormal in both magnitude and distribution in a patient with familial frontotemporal dementia due to a MAPT 10 + 16C>T gene mutation, recapitulating the pattern of neuropathology seen in her father. Given the genetic diagnosis and the non-Alzheimer's pathology, these findings suggest that [18F]AV-1451 might be a useful biomarker in primary tauopathies. Largerscale in vivo and post-mortem studies will be needed to assess the technique's specificity.TEC is supported by the Association of British Neurologists and the Patrick Berthoud Charitable Trust. JRH, JK, and SF are supported by funding to Forefront, a collaborative research group dedicated to the study of frontotemporal dementia and motor neuron disease, from the National Health and Medical research Council of Australia program grant (1037746). JBR is supported by the Wellcome Trust (103838). The Cambridge Brain Bank, JPC, WRBJ, MGS, and LP are supported by the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. MGS is supported by the UK MRC.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via https://doi.org/10.1002/acn3.36