The Formation and Gravitational-Wave Detection of Massive Stellar Black-Hole Binaries

If binaries consisting of two 100 Msun black holes exist they would serve as extraordinarily powerful gravitational-wave sources, detectable to redshifts of z=2 with the advanced LIGO/Virgo ground-based detectors. Large uncertainties about the evolution of massive stars preclude definitive rate predictions for mergers of these massive black holes. We show that rates as high as hundreds of detections per year, or as low as no detections whatsoever, are both possible. It was thought that the only way to produce these massive binaries was via dynamical interactions in dense stellar systems. This view has been challenged by the recent discovery of several stars with mass above 150 Msun in the R136 region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. Current models predict that when stars of this mass leave the main sequence, their expansion is insufficient to allow common envelope evolution to efficiently reduce the orbital separation. The resulting black-hole--black-hole binary remains too wide to be able to coalesce within a Hubble time. If this assessment is correct, isolated very massive binaries do not evolve to be gravitational-wave sources. However, other formation channels exist. For example, the high multiplicity of massive stars, and their common formation in relatively dense stellar associations, opens up dynamical channels for massive black hole mergers (e.g., via Kozai cycles or repeated binary-single interactions). We identify key physical factors that shape the population of very massive black-hole--black-hole binaries. Advanced gravitational-wave detectors will provide important constraints on the formation and evolution of very massive stars.Comment: ApJ accepted, extended description of modelin

Galaxy zoo builder:morphological dependence of spiral galaxy pitch angle

Spiral structure is ubiquitous in the Universe, and the pitch angle of arms in spiral galaxies provide an important observable in efforts to discriminate between different mechanisms of spiral arm formation and evolution. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian approach to galaxy pitch angle determination, using spiral arm data obtained through the Galaxy Builder citizen science project. We present a new approach to deal with the large variations in pitch angle between different arms in a single galaxy, which obtains full posterior distributions on parameters. We make use of our pitch angles to examine previously reported links between bulge and bar strength and pitch angle, finding no correlation in our data (with a caveat that we use observational proxies for both bulge size and bar strength which differ from other work). We test a recent model for spiral arm winding, which predicts uniformity of the cotangent of pitch angle between some unknown upper and lower limits, finding our observations are consistent with this model of transient and recurrent spiral pitch angle as long as the pitch angle at which most winding spirals dissipate or disappear is larger than 10°. © 2021 The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society

Galaxy Zoo builder:four-component photometric decomposition of spiral galaxies guided by citizen science

Multicomponent modeling of galaxies is a valuable tool in the effort to quantitatively understand galaxy evolution, yet the use of the technique is plagued by issues of convergence, model selection, and parameter degeneracies. These issues limit its application over large samples to the simplest models, with complex models being applied only to very small samples. We attempt to resolve this dilemma of "quantity or quality" by developing a novel framework, built inside the Zooniverse citizen-science platform, to enable the crowdsourcing of model creation for Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies. We have applied the method, including a final algorithmic optimization step, on a test sample of 198 galaxies, and examine the robustness of this new method. We also compare it to automated fitting pipelines, demonstrating that it is possible to consistently recover accurate models that either show good agreement with, or improve on, prior work. We conclude that citizen science is a promising technique for modeling images of complex galaxies, and release our catalog of models

Domain Walls and Metastable Vacua in Hot Orientifold Field Theories

We consider "Orientifold field theories", namely SU(N) gauge theories with Dirac fermions in the two-index representation at high temperature. When N is even these theories exhibit a spontaneously broken Z2 centre symmetry. We study aspects of the domain wall that interpolates between the two vacua of the theory. In particular we calculate its tension to two-loop order. We compare its tension to the corresponding domain wall in a SU(N) gauge theory with adjoint fermions and find an agreement at large-N, as expected from planar equivalence between the two theories. Moreover, we provide a non-perturbative proof for the coincidence of the tensions at large-N. We also discuss the vacuum structure of the theory when the fermion is given a large mass and argue that there exist N-2 metastable vacua. We calculate the lifetime of those vacua in the thin wall approximation.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figures. v2: minor changes in the introduction section. to appear in JHE

Galaxy Zoo : 3D – crowdsourced bar, spiral, and foreground star masks for MaNGA target galaxies

Funding: Funding for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV has been provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, and the Participating Institutions. We gratefully acknowledge the National Science Foundation’s support of the Keck Northeast Astronomy Consortium’s REU program through grants AST-1005024 and AST-1950797, the KINSC (Koshland Integrated Natural Sciences Centre) at Haverford College for Summer Scholar funding, and the Ogden Trust, UK for support for summer undergraduate internships.The challenge of consistent identification of internal structure in galaxies – in particular disc galaxy components like spiral arms, bars, and bulges – has hindered our ability to study the physical impact of such structure across large samples. In this paper we present Galaxy Zoo: 3D (GZ:3D) a crowdsourcing project built on the Zooniverse platform that we used to create spatial pixel (spaxel) maps that identify galaxy centres, foreground stars, galactic bars, and spiral arms for 29 831 galaxies that were potential targets of the MaNGA survey (Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory, part of the fourth phase of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys or SDSS-IV), including nearly all of the 10 010 galaxies ultimately observed. Our crowdsourced visual identification of asymmetric internal structures provides valuable insight on the evolutionary role of non-axisymmetric processes that is otherwise lost when MaNGA data cubes are azimuthally averaged. We present the publicly available GZ:3D catalogue alongside validation tests and example use cases. These data may in the future provide a useful training set for automated identification of spiral arm features. As an illustration, we use the spiral masks in a sample of 825 galaxies to measure the enhancement of star formation spatially linked to spiral arms, which we measure to be a factor of three over the background disc, and how this enhancement increases with radius.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Ovarian cancer symptom awareness and anticipated delayed presentation in a population sample

Background: While ovarian cancer is recognised as having identifiable early symptoms, understanding of the key determinants of symptom awareness and early presentation is limited. A population-based survey of ovarian cancer awareness and anticipated delayed presentation with symptoms was conducted as part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP). Methods: Women aged over 50 years were recruited using random probability sampling (n = 1043). Computer-assisted telephone interviews were used to administer measures including ovarian cancer symptom recognition, anticipated time to presentation with ovarian symptoms, health beliefs (perceived risk, perceived benefits/barriers to early presentation, confidence in symptom detection, ovarian cancer worry), and demographic variables. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the contribution of independent variables to anticipated presentation (categorised as < 3 weeks or ≥ 3 weeks). Results: The most well-recognised symptoms of ovarian cancer were post-menopausal bleeding (87.4%), and persistent pelvic (79.0%) and abdominal (85.0%) pain. Symptoms associated with eating difficulties and changes in bladder/bowel habits were recognised by less than half the sample. Lower symptom awareness was significantly associated with older age (p ≤ 0.001), being single (p ≤ 0.001), lower education (p ≤ 0.01), and lack of personal experience of ovarian cancer (p ≤ 0.01). The odds of anticipating a delay in time to presentation of ≥ 3 weeks were significantly increased in women educated to degree level (OR = 2.64, 95% CI 1.61 – 4.33, p ≤ 0.001), women who reported more practical barriers (OR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.34 – 1.91, p ≤ 0.001) and more emotional barriers (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.06 – 1.40, p ≤ 0.01), and those less confident in symptom detection (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42 – 0.73, p ≤ 0.001), but not in those who reported lower symptom awareness (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.91 – 1.07, p = 0.74). Conclusions: Many symptoms of ovarian cancer are not well-recognised by women in the general population. Evidence-based interventions are needed not only to improve public awareness but also to overcome the barriers to recognising and acting on ovarian symptoms, if delays in presentation are to be minimised

Planetary population synthesis

In stellar astrophysics, the technique of population synthesis has been successfully used for several decades. For planets, it is in contrast still a young method which only became important in recent years because of the rapid increase of the number of known extrasolar planets, and the associated growth of statistical observational constraints. With planetary population synthesis, the theory of planet formation and evolution can be put to the test against these constraints. In this review of planetary population synthesis, we first briefly list key observational constraints. Then, the work flow in the method and its two main components are presented, namely global end-to-end models that predict planetary system properties directly from protoplanetary disk properties and probability distributions for these initial conditions. An overview of various population synthesis models in the literature is given. The sub-models for the physical processes considered in global models are described: the evolution of the protoplanetary disk, the planets' accretion of solids and gas, orbital migration, and N-body interactions among concurrently growing protoplanets. Next, typical population synthesis results are illustrated in the form of new syntheses obtained with the latest generation of the Bern model. Planetary formation tracks, the distribution of planets in the mass-distance and radius-distance plane, the planetary mass function, and the distributions of planetary radii, semimajor axes, and luminosities are shown, linked to underlying physical processes, and compared with their observational counterparts. We finish by highlighting the most important predictions made by population synthesis models and discuss the lessons learned from these predictions - both those later observationally confirmed and those rejected.Comment: 47 pages, 12 figures. Invited review accepted for publication in the 'Handbook of Exoplanets', planet formation section, section editor: Ralph Pudritz, Springer reference works, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Ed

Theoretical Overview: The New Mesons

After commenting on the state of contemporary hadronic physics and spectroscopy, I highlight four areas where the action is: searching for the relevant degrees of freedom, mesons with beauty and charm, chiral symmetry and the D_{sJ} levels, and X(3872) and the lost tribes of charmonium.Comment: 10 pages, uses jpconf.cls; talk at First Meeting of the APS Topical Group on Hadronic Physic

Effect of pay-for-outcomes and encouraging new providers on national health service smoking cessation services in England: a cluster controlled study

YesPayment incentives are known to influence healthcare but little is known about the impact of paying directly for achieved outcomes. In England, novel purchasing (commissioning) of National Health Service (NHS) stop smoking services, which paid providers for quits achieved whilst encouraging new market entrants, was implemented in eight localities (primary care trusts (PCTs)) in April 2010. This study examines the impact of the novel commissioning on these services. Accredited providers were paid standard tariffs for each smoker who was supported to quit for four and 12 weeks. A cluster-controlled study design was used with the eight intervention PCTs (representing 2,138,947 adult population) matched with a control group of all other (n=64) PCTs with similar demographics which did not implement the novel commissioning arrangements. The primary outcome measure was changes in quits at four weeks between April 2009 and March 2013. A secondary outcome measure was the number of new market entrants within the group of the largest two providers at PCT-level. The number of four-week quits per 1,000 adult population increased per year on average by 9.6% in the intervention PCTs compared to a decrease of 1.1% in the control PCTs (incident rate ratio 1108, p<0001, 95% CI 1059 to 1160). Eighty-five providers held 'any qualified provider' contracts for stop smoking services across the eight intervention PCTs in 2011/12, and 84% of the four-week quits were accounted for by the largest two providers at PCT-level. Three of these 10 providers were new market entrants. To the extent that the intervention incentivized providers to overstate quits in order to increase income, caution is appropriate when considering the findings. Novel commissioning to incentivize achievement of specific clinical outcomes and attract new service providers can increase the effectiveness and supply of NHS stop smoking services

Seagrass restoration is possible:Insights and lessons from Australia and New Zealand

Seagrasses are important marine ecosystems situated throughout the world&rsquo;s coastlines. They are facing declines around the world due to global and local threats such as rising ocean temperatures, coastal development and pollution from sewage outfalls and agriculture. Efforts have been made to reduce seagrass loss through reducing local and regional stressors, and through active restoration. Seagrass restoration is a rapidly maturing discipline, but improved restoration practices are needed to enhance the success of future programs. Major gaps in knowledge remain, however, prior research efforts have provided valuable insights into factors influencing the outcomes of restoration and there are now several examples of successful large-scale restoration programs. A variety of tools and techniques have recently been developed that will improve the efficiency, cost effectiveness, and scalability of restoration programs. This review describes several restoration successes in Australia and New Zealand, with a focus on emerging techniques for restoration, key considerations for future programs, and highlights the benefits of increased collaboration, Traditional Owner (First Nation) and stakeholder engagement. Combined, these lessons and emerging approaches show that seagrass restoration is possible, and efforts should be directed at upscaling seagrass restoration into the future. This is critical for the future conservation of this important ecosystem and the ecological and coastal communities they support