Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model

The observation-error covariance matrix used in data assimilation contains contributions from instrument errors, representativity errors and errors introduced by the approximated observation operator. Forward model errors arise when the observation operator does not correctly model the observations or when observations can resolve spatial scales that the model cannot. Previous work to estimate the observation-error covariance matrix for particular observing instruments has shown that it contains signifcant correlations. In particular, correlations for humidity data are more significant than those for temperature. However it is not known what proportion of these correlations can be attributed to the representativity errors. In this article we apply an existing method for calculating representativity error, previously applied to an idealised system, to NWP data. We calculate horizontal errors of representativity for temperature and humidity using data from the Met Office high-resolution UK variable resolution model. Our results show that errors of representativity are correlated and more significant for specific humidity than temperature. We also find that representativity error varies with height. This suggests that the assimilation scheme may be improved if these errors are explicitly included in a data assimilation scheme. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland

Fast Ensemble Smoothing

Smoothing is essential to many oceanographic, meteorological and hydrological applications. The interval smoothing problem updates all desired states within a time interval using all available observations. The fixed-lag smoothing problem updates only a fixed number of states prior to the observation at current time. The fixed-lag smoothing problem is, in general, thought to be computationally faster than a fixed-interval smoother, and can be an appropriate approximation for long interval-smoothing problems. In this paper, we use an ensemble-based approach to fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing, and synthesize two algorithms. The first algorithm produces a linear time solution to the interval smoothing problem with a fixed factor, and the second one produces a fixed-lag solution that is independent of the lag length. Identical-twin experiments conducted with the Lorenz-95 model show that for lag lengths approximately equal to the error doubling time, or for long intervals the proposed methods can provide significant computational savings. These results suggest that ensemble methods yield both fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing solutions that cost little additional effort over filtering and model propagation, in the sense that in practical ensemble application the additional increment is a small fraction of either filtering or model propagation costs. We also show that fixed-interval smoothing can perform as fast as fixed-lag smoothing and may be advantageous when memory is not an issue

Seeing the baby, doing family: commercial ultrasound as family practice?

Medical sociologists and anthropologists have studied the social significance of obstetric ultrasound for families but little is known about how women and families make use of commercially available ultrasound scans. This article draws on interviews with women who booked a scan with a commercial company in the UK. For some women, commercial ultrasound can be understood as a family practice. We investigate this theme by examining who accompanies women to commercial scan appointments, how scan images are shared and how sonograms are used as prompts to resemblance talk. We argue that commercial scans are more than an additional opportunity to acquire ‘baby’s first picture’ and offer a flexible resource to do family, creating and affirming family relationships and rehearsing roles as parents, siblings and grandparents. Our findings confirm the importance of imagination in doing family and raise questions about the role of technology and commercial interests in shaping family practices

A Tonnetz Model for pentachords

This article deals with the construction of surfaces that are suitable for representing pentachords or 5-pitch segments that are in the same $T/I$ class. It is a generalization of the well known \"Ottingen-Riemann torus for triads of neo-Riemannian theories. Two pentachords are near if they differ by a particular set of contextual inversions and the whole contextual group of inversions produces a Tiling (Tessellation) by pentagons on the surfaces. A description of the surfaces as coverings of a particular Tiling is given in the twelve-tone enharmonic scale case.Comment: 27 pages, 12 figure

A demonstration of an affinity between pyrite and organic matter in a hydrothermal setting

One of the key-principles of the iron-sulphur world theory is to bring organic molecules close enough to interact with each other, using the surface of pyrite as a substrate in a hydrothermal setting. The present paper explores the relationship of pyrite and organic matter in a hydrothermal setting from the geological record; in hydrothermal calcite veins from Carboniferous limestones in central Ireland. Here, the organic matter is accumulated as coatings around, and through, pyrite grains. Most of the pyrite grains are euhedral-subhedral crystals, ranging in size from ca 0.1-0.5 mm in diameter, and they are scattered throughout the matrix of the vein calcite. The organic matter was deposited from a hydrothermal fluid at a temperature of at least 200°C, and gives a Raman signature of disordered carbon. This study points to an example from a hydrothermal setting in the geological record, demonstrating that pyrite can have a high potential for the concentration and accumulation of organic materials

An additional bolus of rapid-acting insulin to normalise postprandial cardiovascular risk factors following a high-carbohydrate high-fat meal in patients with type 1 diabetes: A randomised controlled trial.

AIM: To evaluate an additional rapid-acting insulin bolus on postprandial lipaemia, inflammation and pro-coagulation following high-carbohydrate high-fat feeding in people with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: A total of 10 males with type 1 diabetes [HbA1c 52.5 ± 5.9 mmol/mol (7.0% ± 0.5%)] underwent three conditions: (1) a low-fat (LF) meal with normal bolus insulin, (2), a high-fat (HF) meal with normal bolus insulin and (3) a high-fat meal with normal bolus insulin with an additional 30% insulin bolus administered 3-h post-meal (HFA). Meals had identical carbohydrate and protein content and bolus insulin dose determined by carbohydrate-counting. Blood was sampled periodically for 6-h post-meal and analysed for triglyceride, non-esterified-fatty acids, apolipoprotein B48, glucagon, tumour necrosis factor alpha, fibrinogen, human tissue factor activity and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1. Continuous glucose monitoring captured interstitial glucose responses. RESULTS: Triglyceride concentrations following LF remained similar to baseline, whereas triglyceride levels following HF were significantly greater throughout the 6-h observation period. The additional insulin bolus (HFA) normalised triglyceride similarly to low fat 3-6 h following the meal. HF was associated with late postprandial elevations in tumour necrosis factor alpha, whereas LF and HFA was not. Fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 and tissue factor pathway levels were similar between conditions. CONCLUSION: Additional bolus insulin 3 h following a high-carbohydrate high-fat meal prevents late rises in postprandial triglycerides and tumour necrosis factor alpha, thus improving cardiovascular risk profile

HIV Prevention in Care and Treatment Settings: Baseline Risk Behaviors among HIV Patients in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania.

HIV care and treatment settings provide an opportunity to reach people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) with prevention messages and services. Population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa have identified HIV risk behaviors among PLHIV, yet data are limited regarding HIV risk behaviors of PLHIV in clinical care. This paper describes the baseline sociodemographic, HIV transmission risk behaviors, and clinical data of a study evaluating an HIV prevention intervention package for HIV care and treatment clinics in Africa. The study was a longitudinal group-randomized trial in 9 intervention clinics and 9 comparison clinics in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania (N = 3538). Baseline participants were mostly female, married, had less than a primary education, and were relatively recently diagnosed with HIV. Fifty-two percent of participants had a partner of negative or unknown status, 24% were not using condoms consistently, and 11% reported STI symptoms in the last 6 months. There were differences in demographic and HIV transmission risk variables by country, indicating the need to consider local context in designing studies and using caution when generalizing findings across African countries. Baseline data from this study indicate that participants were often engaging in HIV transmission risk behaviors, which supports the need for prevention with PLHIV (PwP). TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01256463

Star Clusters

This review concentrates almost entirely on globular star clusters. It emphasises the increasing realisation that few of the traditional problems of star cluster astronomy can be studied in isolation: the influence of the Galaxy affects dynamical evolution deep in the core, and the spectrum of stellar masses; in turn the evolution of the core determines the highest stellar densities, and the rate of encounters. In this way external tidal effects indirectly influence the formation and evolution of blue stragglers, binary pulsars, X-ray sources, etc. More controversially, the stellar density appears to influence the relative distribution of normal stars. In the opposite sense, the evolution of individual stars governs much of the early dynamics of a globular cluster, and the existence of large numbers of primordial binary stars has changed important details of our picture of the dynamical evolution. New computational tools which will become available in the next few years will help dynamical theorists to address these questions.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, Te

Counting and effective rigidity in algebra and geometry

The purpose of this article is to produce effective versions of some rigidity results in algebra and geometry. On the geometric side, we focus on the spectrum of primitive geodesic lengths (resp., complex lengths) for arithmetic hyperbolic 2-manifolds (resp., 3-manifolds). By work of Reid, this spectrum determines the commensurability class of the 2-manifold (resp., 3-manifold). We establish effective versions of these rigidity results by ensuring that, for two incommensurable arithmetic manifolds of bounded volume, the length sets (resp., the complex length sets) must disagree for a length that can be explicitly bounded as a function of volume. We also prove an effective version of a similar rigidity result established by the second author with Reid on a surface analog of the length spectrum for hyperbolic 3-manifolds. These effective results have corresponding algebraic analogs involving maximal subfields and quaternion subalgebras of quaternion algebras. To prove these effective rigidity results, we establish results on the asymptotic behavior of certain algebraic and geometric counting functions which are of independent interest.Comment: v.2, 39 pages. To appear in Invent. Mat