Impact of Small Group Size on Neighborhood Influences in Multilevel Models

Objective: Although there is a growing body of literature on sample size in multilevel or hierarchical modeling, few studies have examined the impact of group sizeMultilevel, Neighborhood, Body Weight, Obesity, Sample Size

Antiviral Resistance and the Control of Pandemic Influenza

BACKGROUND: The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir), combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness). Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing) that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance should be considered in pandemic planning and monitored closely during a pandemic

Annexins induce curvature on free-edge membranes displaying distinct morphologies

Annexins are a family of proteins characterized by their ability to bind anionic membranes in response to Ca2+-activation. They are involved in a multitude of cellular functions including vesiculation and membrane repair. Here, we investigate the effect of nine annexins (ANXA1-ANXA7, ANXA11, ANXA13) on negatively charged double supported membrane patches with free edges. We find that annexin members can be classified according to the membrane morphology they induce and matching a dendrogam of the annexin family based on full amino acid sequences. ANXA1 and ANXA2 induce membrane folding and blebbing initiated from membrane structural defects inside patches while ANXA6 induces membrane folding originating both from defects and from the membrane edges. ANXA4 and ANXA5 induce cooperative roll-up of the membrane starting from free edges, producing large rolls. In contrast, ANXA3 and ANXA13 roll the membrane in a fragmented manner producing multiple thin rolls. In addition to rolling, ANXA7 and ANXA11 are characterized by their ability to form fluid lenses localized between the membrane leaflets. A shared feature necessary for generating these morphologies is the ability to induce membrane curvature on free edged anionic membranes. Consequently, induction of membrane curvature may be a significant property of the annexin protein family that is important for their function

A Monte Carlo investigation of secondary electron emission from solid targets: spherical symmetry versus momentum conservation within the classical binary collision model

A Monte Carlo scheme is described where the secondary electron generation has been incorporated. The initial position of a secondary electron due to Fermi sea excitation is assumed to be where the inelastic collision took place, while the polar and azimuth angles of secondary electrons can be calculated in two different ways. The first one assumes a random direction of the secondary electrons, corresponding to the idea that slow secondary electrons should be generated with spherical symmetry. Such an approach violates momentum conservation. The second way of calculating the polar and azimuth angles of the secondary electrons takes into account the momentum conservation rules within the classical binary collision model. The aim of this paper is to compare the results of these two different approaches for the determination of the energy distribution of the secondary electrons emitted by solid targets.Comment: COSIRES2008. 9th Conference on Computer Simulation of Radiation Effects in Solids, Beijing, China, October 12-17, 200

Ising model for distribution networks

An elementary Ising spin model is proposed for demonstrating cascading failures (break-downs, blackouts, collapses, avalanches, ...) that can occur in realistic networks for distribution and delivery by suppliers to consumers. A ferromagnetic Hamiltonian with quenched random fields results from policies that maximize the gap between demand and delivery. Such policies can arise in a competitive market where firms artificially create new demand, or in a solidary environment where too high a demand cannot reasonably be met. Network failure in the context of a policy of solidarity is possible when an initially active state becomes metastable and decays to a stable inactive state. We explore the characteristics of the demand and delivery, as well as the topological properties, which make the distribution network susceptible of failure. An effective temperature is defined, which governs the strength of the activity fluctuations which can induce a collapse. Numerical results, obtained by Monte Carlo simulations of the model on (mainly) scale-free networks, are supplemented with analytic mean-field approximations to the geometrical random field fluctuations and the thermal spin fluctuations. The role of hubs versus poorly connected nodes in initiating the breakdown of network activity is illustrated and related to model parameters

Impact of Small Group Size on Neighborhood Influences in Multilevel Models

Objective: Although there is a growing body of literature on sample size in multilevel or hierarchical modeling, few studies have examined the impact of group size < 5. Design: We examined the impact of a group size less than five on both a continuous and dichotomous outcome in a simple two-level multilevel model utilizing data from two studies. Setting: Models with balanced and unbalanced data of group sizes 2 to 5 were compared to models with complete data. Impact on both fixed and random components were examined. Results: Random components, particularly group-level variance estimates, were more affected by small group size than were fixed components. Both fixed and random standard error estimates were inflated with small group size. Datasets where there are a large number of groups yet all the groups are of very small size may fail to find or even consider a group-level effect when one may exist and also may be under-powered to detect fixed effects. Conclusions: Researchers working with multilevel study designs should be aware of the potential impact of small group size when a large proportion of groups has very small (< 5) sample sizes

Psychosocial influences on vaccine responses

Interdisciplinary work between psychologists and immunologists has shown that factors like stress could be the trigger that lead to the development of a bout of illness. By studying the response to vaccination, we can examine immune function in the context of the rest of the body in a clinically meaningful way. This technique has been used to demonstrate consistent relationships between stress and the response to influenza vaccination and other vaccines, as well as links between other factors, such as social support and personality, and vaccination-induced protection against disease. There are several ways the vaccination response can be used to understand more about how stress influences immunity. In addition, specific types of stress and other factors that influence our immune response appear to differ across different populations, which emphasises the importance of taking a life course approach to studying these relationships

Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

Spatial distribution and activity of Na +/K +-ATPase in lipid bilayer membranes with phase boundaries

Abstract We have reconstituted functional Na +/K +-ATPase (NKA) into giant unilamellar vesicles (GUVs) of well-defined binary and ternary lipid composition including cholesterol. The activity of the membrane system can be turned on and off by ATP. The hydrolytic activity of \NKA\} is found to depend on membrane phase, and the water relaxation in the membrane on the presence of NKA. By collapsing and fixating the \{GUVs\} onto a solid support and using high-resolution atomic-force microscopy (AFM) imaging we determine the protein orientation and spatial distribution at the single-molecule level and find that \{NKA\} is preferentially located at l o/l d interfaces in two-phase \{GUVs\ and homogeneously distributed in single-phase GUVs. When turned active, the membrane is found to unbind from the support suggesting that the protein function leads to a softening of the membrane