10 research outputs found
Comparison of boreal ecosystem model sensitivity to variability in climate and forest site parameters
Ecosystem models are useful tools for evaluating environmental controls on carbon and water cycles under past or future conditions. In this paper we compare annual carbon and water fluxes from nine boreal spruce forest ecosystem models in a series of sensitivity simulations. For each comparison, a single climate driver or forest site parameter was altered in a separate sensitivity run. Driver and parameter changes were prescribed principally to be large enough to identify and isolate any major differences in model responses, while also remaining within the range of variability that the boreal forest biome may be exposed to over a time period of several decades. The models simulated plant production, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, and evapotranspiration (ET) for a black spruce site in the boreal forest of central Canada (56°N). Results revealed that there were common model responses in gross primary production, plant respiration, and ET fluxes to prescribed changes in air temperature or surface irradiance and to decreased precipitation amounts. The models were also similar in their responses to variations in canopy leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, and surface organic layer thickness. The models had different sensitivities to certain parameters, namely the net primary production response to increased CO2 levels, and the response of soil microbial respiration to precipitation inputs and soil wetness. These differences can be explained by the type (or absence) of photosynthesis-CO2 response curves in the models and by response algorithms of litter and humus decomposition to drying effects in organic soils of the boreal spruce ecosystem. Differences in the couplings of photosynthesis and soil respiration to nitrogen availability may also explain divergent model responses. Sensitivity comparisons imply that past conditions of the ecosystem represented in the models\u27 initial standing wood and soil carbon pools, including historical climate patterns and the time since the last major disturbance, can be as important as potential climatic changes to prediction of the annual ecosystem carbon balance in this boreal spruce forest
Recommended from our members
Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements
Nine ecosystem process models were used to predict CO2 and water vapor exchanges by a 150-year-old black spruce forest in central Canada during 1994â1996 to evaluate and improve the models. Three models had hourly time steps, five had daily time steps, and one had monthly time steps. Model input included site ecosystem characteristics and meteorology. Model predictions were compared to eddy covariance (EC) measurements of whole-ecosystem CO2exchange and evapotranspiration, to chamber measurements of nighttime moss-surface CO2release, and to ground-based estimates of annual gross primary production, net primary production, net ecosystem production (NEP), plant respiration, and decomposition. Model-model differences were apparent for all variables. Model-measurement agreement was good in some cases but poor in others. Modeled annual NEP ranged from â11 g C mâ2 (weak CO2source) to 85 g C mâ2 (moderate CO2 sink). The models generally predicted greater annual CO2sink activity than measured by EC, a discrepancy consistent with the fact that model parameterizations represented the more productive fraction of the EC tower âfootprint.â At hourly to monthly timescales, predictions bracketed EC measurements so median predictions were similar to measurements, but there were quantitatively important model-measurement discrepancies found for all models at subannual timescales. For these models and input data, hourly time steps (and greater complexity) compared to daily time steps tended to improve model-measurement agreement for daily scale CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration (as judged by root-mean-squared error). Model time step and complexity played only small roles in monthly to annual predictions
Moisture effects on microbial activity and community structure in decomposing birch litter in the Alaskan taiga
The Effects of Different Climate Input Datasets on Simulated Carbon Dynamics in the Western Arctic
Recommended from our members
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback