Hernia Reduced by Cupping: Extract from My Note Book

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Using schedulers to test probabilistic distributed systems

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00165-012-0244-5. Copyright © 2012, British Computer Society.Formal methods are one of the most important approaches to increasing the confidence in the correctness of software systems. A formal specification can be used as an oracle in testing since one can determine whether an observed behaviour is allowed by the specification. This is an important feature of formal testing: behaviours of the system observed in testing are compared with the specification and ideally this comparison is automated. In this paper we study a formal testing framework to deal with systems that interact with their environment at physically distributed interfaces, called ports, and where choices between different possibilities are probabilistically quantified. Building on previous work, we introduce two families of schedulers to resolve nondeterministic choices among different actions of the system. The first type of schedulers, which we call global schedulers, resolves nondeterministic choices by representing the environment as a single global scheduler. The second type, which we call localised schedulers, models the environment as a set of schedulers with there being one scheduler for each port. We formally define the application of schedulers to systems and provide and study different implementation relations in this setting

Rabies, Still Neglected after 125 Years of Vaccination

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Determinants of health seeking behaviour following rabies exposure in Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to identify factors that determine medical treatment seeking behaviour following potential rabies exposure after being bitten by a suspected dog and the likelihood of compliance to receive sufficient doses of post-exposure prophylaxis after the visit to a health centre visit. A detailed survey based on case investigation was conducted on suspected rabid dog bite cases in three areas of Ethiopia. Two multivariable logistic regression models were created with a set of putative variables to explain treatment seeking and compliance outcomes. Based on the registered bite cases at each health centre and the set of unregistered bite cases derived by contact tracing, 655 bite victim cases were identified to have occurred between September 2013 and August 2014. Of these evaluated bite incidences, 465 cases were considered to have been caused by a potentially rabid dog. About 77% of these suspected rabid dog bite victims visited a health centre, while 57% received sufficient doses of PEP. The overall likelihood of seeking medical services following rabies exposure was higher for people bitten by dogs of unknown ownership, where the bite was severe, being bitten on the leg, spend of more than 100 USD per month and where the victim lived close to the nearest health centre, while the likelihood of receiving sufficient doses of PEP was sensitive to monthly spending and distance to health centre. However, the evaluated factors did only explain a part of the variation among the three districts. The district in which victims lived appeared to have a relevant influence on the likelihood of seeking medical treatment but did not improve the prediction on the likelihood of treatment compliance. Given the insights obtained from this study, improvements in the rural districts with regard to accessibility of post-exposure prophylaxis delivering health centres in shorter distance could improve health seeking behaviour. In addition, in rural districts, majority of exposed persons who seek medical treatment tend to comply with treatment regimen, indicating that the promotion of medical treatment through awareness creation campaigns could be beneficial

Quantifying the burden of rhodesiense sleeping sickness in Urambo district, Tanzania

Sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis - HAT) is a disease transmitted by tsetse flies and is always fatal if left untreated. The disease occurs in foci affecting poor communities with limited access to health service provision and as such the disease is often left undiagnosed, mistaken for more common afflictions. Even if diagnosed, sleeping sickness is costly to treat, both for health services and patients and their families in terms of costs of diagnosis, transport, hospital care, and the prolonged period of convalescence. Here we estimate the health burden of the acute form T. b. rhodesiense sleeping sickness in Urambo District, Tanzania in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), the yardstick commonly used by policy makers to prioritize disease management practices, representing a year of healthy life lost to disease. In this single district, the burden of the disease over one year was estimated at 979 DALYs and the estimated monetary costs to health services for the 143 treated patients at US$11,841 and to the patients themselves at US$ 3,673 for direct medical costs and US$ 9,781 for indirect non-medical costs. Sleeping sickness thus places a considerable burden on the affected rural communities and health services

Designing programs for eliminating canine rabies from islands: Bali, Indonesia as a case study

<p>Background: Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.</p> <p>Methodology/Principal Findings: Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, of rabies in dogs, to be ~1·2, almost identical to that obtained in ten–fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.</p> <p>Conclusions/Significance: The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.</p&gt

Rabies Situation in Cambodia

In Cambodia, rabies still elicits fear in the communities. Since 1998 the Institut Pasteur in Cambodia (IPC), Phnom Penh has been the only source of free post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and post mortem diagnosis. During 1998–2007, on average ∼12,400 patients received PEP annually at IPC (range 8,907–14,475) and 63 fatal human cases presenting with encephalitis following a dog bite were reported including 73% who tested positive by fluorescent-antibody test on brain samples or/and by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction on skin, cerebrospinal fluid, or urine. In 2007, 14,475 patients received PEP (100 PEP/100,000 people in Cambodia) including 95% who resided in Phnom Penh city (615 PEP/100,000) or five neighboring provinces. Using a step-by-step probability model, we estimated that 810 human rabies deaths would occur in 2007 (95% confidence interval [CI] 394–1,607); an incidence of 5.8/100,000 (95%CI 2.8–11.5). As a result, despite high attendance at the IPC's PEP center most Cambodians living in peripheral provinces in Cambodia may not have adequate access to PEP. Finally, the model generated one of the highest incidences of rabies worldwide. A national rabies control program is needed to improve surveillance and access to PEP, and to initiate vaccination campaigns in dogs

Epidemiology of Coxiella burnetii infection in Africa: a OneHealth systematic review

Background: Q fever is a common cause of febrile illness and community-acquired pneumonia in resource-limited settings. Coxiella burnetii, the causative pathogen, is transmitted among varied host species, but the epidemiology of the organism in Africa is poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review of C. burnetii epidemiology in Africa from a “One Health” perspective to synthesize the published data and identify knowledge gaps.<p></p> Methods/Principal Findings: We searched nine databases to identify articles relevant to four key aspects of C. burnetii epidemiology in human and animal populations in Africa: infection prevalence; disease incidence; transmission risk factors; and infection control efforts. We identified 929 unique articles, 100 of which remained after full-text review. Of these, 41 articles describing 51 studies qualified for data extraction. Animal seroprevalence studies revealed infection by C. burnetii (≤13%) among cattle except for studies in Western and Middle Africa (18–55%). Small ruminant seroprevalence ranged from 11–33%. Human seroprevalence was <8% with the exception of studies among children and in Egypt (10–32%). Close contact with camels and rural residence were associated with increased seropositivity among humans. C. burnetii infection has been associated with livestock abortion. In human cohort studies, Q fever accounted for 2–9% of febrile illness hospitalizations and 1–3% of infective endocarditis cases. We found no studies of disease incidence estimates or disease control efforts.<p></p> Conclusions/Significance: C. burnetii infection is detected in humans and in a wide range of animal species across Africa, but seroprevalence varies widely by species and location. Risk factors underlying this variability are poorly understood as is the role of C. burnetii in livestock abortion. Q fever consistently accounts for a notable proportion of undifferentiated human febrile illness and infective endocarditis in cohort studies, but incidence estimates are lacking. C. burnetii presents a real yet underappreciated threat to human and animal health throughout Africa.<p></p&gt

Using molecular data for epidemiological inference: assessing the prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in Tsetse in Serengeti, Tanzania

Background: Measuring the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in tsetse populations is essential for understanding transmission dynamics, assessing human disease risk and monitoring spatio-temporal trends and the impact of control interventions. Although an important epidemiological variable, identifying flies which carry transmissible infections is difficult, with challenges including low prevalence, presence of other trypanosome species in the same fly, and concurrent detection of immature non-transmissible infections. Diagnostic tests to measure the prevalence of T. b. rhodesiense in tsetse are applied and interpreted inconsistently, and discrepancies between studies suggest this value is not consistently estimated even to within an order of magnitude. Methodology/Principal Findings: Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei s.l. and T. b. rhodesiense in Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania: (i) dissection/microscopy; (ii) PCR on infected tsetse midguts; and (iii) inference from a mathematical model. Using dissection/microscopy the prevalence of transmissible T. brucei s.l. was 0% (95% CI 0–0.085) for G. swynnertoni and 0% (0–0.18) G. pallidipes; using PCR the prevalence of transmissible T. b. rhodesiense was 0.010% (0–0.054) and 0.0089% (0–0.059) respectively, and by model inference 0.0064% and 0.00085% respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The zero prevalence result by dissection/microscopy (likely really greater than zero given the results of other approaches) is not unusual by this technique, often ascribed to poor sensitivity. The application of additional techniques confirmed the very low prevalence of T. brucei suggesting the zero prevalence result was attributable to insufficient sample size (despite examination of 6000 tsetse). Given the prohibitively high sample sizes required to obtain meaningful results by dissection/microscopy, PCR-based approaches offer the current best option for assessing trypanosome prevalence in tsetse but inconsistencies in relating PCR results to transmissibility highlight the need for a consensus approach to generate meaningful and comparable data