Bayesian Model Selection of Regular Vine Copulas

Regular vine copulas are a flexible class of dependence models, but Bayesian methodology for model selection and inference is not yet fully developed. We propose sparsity-inducing but otherwise non-informative priors, and present novel proposals to enable reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulation for Bayesian model selection and inference. Our method is the first to jointly estimate the posterior distribution of all trees of a regular vine copula. This represents a substantial improvement over existing frequentist and Bayesian strategies, which can only select one tree at a time and are known to induce bias. A simulation study demonstrates the feasibility of our strategy and shows that it combines superior selection and reduced computation time compared to Bayesian tree-by-tree selection. In a real data example, we forecast the daily expected tail loss of a portfolio of nine exchange-traded funds using a fully Bayesian multivariate dynamic model built around Bayesian regular vine copulas to illustrate our model’s viability for financial analysis and risk estimation

Western Blot of Stained Proteins from Dried Polyacrylamide Gels

Western blotting of proteins is customarily performed following their separation on polyacrylamide gels, either prior to staining (1) or, as recently reported, following staining (2). We describe here Western blotting with stained gels, which had been dried and some of which had been stored for years. This procedure permits immunological analysis of proteins, to which antisera may have become available only later, or where the application of newly developed sensitive detection methods is desired. Once rehydration of the gels is achieved, proteins can be-transferred to blotting membranes by any appropriate protocol. Proteins stained with Coomassie Blue have to be detected with a non-chromogenic method, such as the film-based enhanced chemiluminescence (ECL)2) procedure (3). Silver stained proteins, which transfer in the colorless form, may be visualized by any detection method, although, because of the usually very low amounts of proteins, detection by ECL is preferable. Blotting of stained proteins from rehydrated gels is as rapid and as quantitative as from freshly prepared gels, in contrast to blotting from wet stained gels, which requires extensive washing and results in low transfer efficiency (2). Together with a photographic record of the gel pattern, unambiguous identification of immunoreactive proteins from complex mixtures is possible. Some further applications of this work are discussed

Möbeldekor aus Elfenbein

Die Arbeit befaßt sich mit der Rekonstruktion von Elfenbeinen, die aus Ausgrabungen im Vorderen Orient stammen und als Möbelverzierung angesprochen werden. Anhand eines ikonographischen Vergleichs mit Denkmälern der entsprechenden Regionen, Assyrien, Nordsyrien/Südostkleinasien und Phönizien, und unter Einbeziehung von Originalmaterial wird versucht, theoretische Möglichkeiten einer Rekonstruktion zu erarbeiten. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird den technischen Merkmalen an den Elfenbeinen geschenkt, die Auskunft über Herstellung und Befestigung mit dem Trägermöbel geben. Ein Überblick über generelle Gestaltungsprinzipien in den altorientalischen Kulturen leitet konkrete Vorschläge für die Zusammenfügung der Elfenbeindekoration an verschiedenen Möbel ein

De Dinorá às mocinhas do Passeio : as guerras conjugais no universo boêmio de Dalton Trevisan

Orientadora: Profª Drª Regina Maria PrzybycienDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Humanas, Letras e Artes, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Letras. Defesa: Curitiba, 2007Inclui bibliografi

Left ventricular hypertrabeculation/noncompaction with epilepsy, other heart defects, minor facial anomalies and new copy number variants

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular hypertrabeculation/noncompaction (LVHT) is a cardiac abnormality of unknown etiology which has been described in children as well as in adults with and without chromosomal aberrations. LVHT has been reported in association with various cardiac and extracardiac abnormalities like epilepsy and facial dysmorphism. CASE PRESENTATION: A unique combination of LVHT, atrial septal defect, pulmonary valve stenosis, aortic stenosis, epilepsy and minor facial anomalies is presented in a 5.5 years old girl. Microarray-based genomic hybridization (array-CGH) detected six previously not described copy number variants (CNVs) inherited from a clinically unaffected father and minimally affected mother, thus, most likely, not clinically significant but rare benign variants. CONCLUSIONS: Despite this complex phenotype de novo microdeletions or microduplications were not detected by array CGH. Further investigations, such as whole exome sequencing, could reveal point mutations and small indels as the possible cause

Die Rolle des Corporate Foresight im Innovationsprozess: Ziele, Ausgestaltung und Erfahrungen am Beispiel der Siemens AG

This article focuses on activities of corporate foresight that constitute one of the core elements of strategic innovation management. Hence, corporate foresight plays a crucial role for the mid- to longterm competitiveness of firms. It typically comprises the stages of idea generation to idea selection. Forecasting activities are of particular importance to corporate foresight as they allow detecting future trends and discontinuities such as technology shocks. Though there is much theoretical knowledge on corporate foresight activities, there is only little empirical evidence that shows how these activities are actually conducted in practice. Using the example of the Siemens AG, this article reveals how corporate foresight is professionally implemented in this company, which goals are pursued with it and what kind of experiences have been made so far. In particular, the motivation of all employees who are engaged in this process and the general acceptance of the foresight process have been key to its success

Krueppel-Like Factor 4 Expression in Phagocytes Regulates Early Inflammatory Response and Disease Severity in Pneumococcal Pneumonia

The transcription factor Krueppel-like factor (KLF) 4 fosters the pro-inflammatory immune response in macrophages and polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs) when stimulated with Streptococcus pneumoniae, the main causative pathogen of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Here, we investigated the impact of KLF4 expression in myeloid cells such as macrophages and PMNs on inflammatory response and disease severity in a pneumococcal pneumonia mouse model and in patients admitted to hospital with CAP. We found that mice with a myeloid-specific knockout of KLF4 mount an insufficient early immune response with reduced levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and increased levels of the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin (IL) 10 in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and plasma and an impaired bacterial clearance from the lungs 24 hours after infection with S. pneumoniae. This results in higher rates of bacteremia, increased lung tissue damage, more severe symptoms of infection and reduced survival. Higher KLF4 gene expression levels in the peripheral blood of patients with CAP at hospital admission correlate with a favourable clinical presentation (lower sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score), lower serum levels of IL-10 at admission, shorter hospital stay and lower mortality or requirement of intensive care unit treatment within 28 days after admission. Thus, KLF4 in myeloid cells such as macrophages and PMNs is an important regulator of the early proinflammatory immune response and, therefore, a potentially interesting target for therapeutic interventions in pneumococcal pneumonia