Implementation of a EU wide indicator for the rural-agrarian landscape In support of COM(2006)508 “Development of agri-environmental indicators for monitoring the integration of environmental concerns into the Common Agricultural Policy”

The report explains the conceptual and methodological development of the agrienvironmental indicator on landscape state and diversity, calculated in support of COM(2006)508 “Development of agri-environmental indicators for monitoring the integration of environmental concerns into the common agricultural policy”. The indicator is based on three components: the degree of naturalness of the rural-agrarian landscape, intended as the influence exerted by society on the agrarian landscape with its agricultural activities and modifications of the original natural state introduced by farming practices; the physical structure, intended as land cover and its spatial organisation as a product of land management (organisation of different land cover types, plot size, fragmentation, diversity etc.); the societal awareness of the rural-agrarian landscape, as the society perceives, values and assesses landscape quality; the society plans, manages, and uses the landscape for productive or non productive purposes.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Exploring the future land use-biodiversity-climate nexus in East Africa: an application of participatory scenario analysis

Climate change and land-use-land-cover change (LULCC) are expected to have major impacts on global biodiversity. In highly diverse tropical moist forests, future biodiversity trajectories will also depend on political and societal will to undertake the changes needed to reduce those impacts. We present a framework to build participatory spatially-explicit scenarios that can be used to analyse the biodiversity-climate-land-change tradeoffs, which we applied at different scales in East Africa. In Tanzania, under the business-as-usual pattern of economic growth, the Eastern Arc Mountains forests and biodiversity will be heavily impacted on, with increasing pressure on protected areas. Increasing variability of rainfall and temperature are likely to impact on where the LULCC are going to be, with the mountains likely to be refuges that are even more important for local communities. That may intensify impacts on biodiversity. In Taita Hills (Kenya) and Jimma Highlands (Ethiopia), stakeholders expected that adaptation interventions to climate change would generally improve biodiversity state. Preliminary data on birds community diversity in Taita Hills showed that though agroforestry system supports higher diversity than natural forest, species richness of rarer forest specialists remained highest within natural forests. Anticipating future conservation and agriculture interaction under climate change may contribute to set spatial priorities for intervention sites. Further investigations are required that could benefit from integrating local stakeholders’ perceptions and visions for the future

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs

Serengeti's futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies' relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals

Beta 2 glycoprotein I and neutrophil extracellular traps: Potential bridge between innate and adaptive immunity in anti-phospholipid syndrome

Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a systemic autoimmune disorder characterized by recurrent vascular thrombosis and miscarriages in the absence of known causes. Antibodies against phospholipid-binding proteins (aPL) are pathogenic players in both clotting and pregnancy APS manifestations. There is sound evidence that antibodies specific for beta2 glycoprotein I (β2GPI) trigger thrombotic and pregnancy complications by interacting with the molecule on the membranes of different cell types of the coagulation cascade, and in placenta tissues. In addition to the humoral response against β2GPI, both peripheral and tissue CD4+ β2GPI-specific T cells have been reported in primary APS as well as in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-associated APS. While adaptive immunity plays a clear role in APS, it is still debated whether innate immunity is involved as well. Acute systemic inflammation does not seem to be present in the syndrome, however, there is sound evidence that complement activation is crucial in animal models and can be found also in patients. Furthermore, neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) have been documented in arterial and venous thrombi with different etiology, including clots in APS models. Keeping in mind that β2GPI is a pleiotropic glycoprotein, acting as scavenger molecule for infectious agents and apoptotic/damaged body constituents and that self-molecules externalized through NETs formation may become immunogenic autoantigens, we demonstrated β2GPI on NETs, and its ability to stimulate CD4+β2GPI-specific T cells. The aim of this review is to elucidate the role of β2GPI in the cross-talk between the innate and adaptive immunity in APS

A systematic review of participatory scenario planning to envision mountain social-ecological systems futures

Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single- and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems

Measuring societal awareness of the rural agrarian landscape: indicators and scale issues

The work presented in this report is part of the effort to define the landscape state and diversity indicator in the frame of COM (2006) 508 “Development of agri-environmental indicators for monitoring the integration of environmental concerns into the common agricultural policy”. The Communication classifies the indicators according to their level of development, which, for the landscape indicator is “in need of substantial improvements in order to become fully operational”. For this reason a full re-definition of the indicator has been carried out, following the initial proposal presented in the frame of the IRENA operation (“Indicator Reporting on the Integration of Environmental Concerns into Agricultural Policy”). The new proposal for the landscape state and diversity indicator is structured in three components: the first concerns the degree of naturalness, the second landscape structure, the third the societal appreciation of the rural landscape. While the first two components rely on a strong bulk of existing literature, the development of the methodology has made evident the need for further analysis of the third component, which is based on a newly proposed top-down approach. This report presents an in-depth analysis of such component of the indicator, and the effort to include a social dimension in large scale landscape assessment.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource