In Canada’s snap election, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were both victims and beneficiaries of the COVID-19 crisis

Last month, Canada held its second election in less than two years as Liberal Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau sought a new mandate during the COVID-19 pandemic. But Trudeau’s gamble that Canadians would reward his party for its handling of the pandemic did not pay off, and he now still leads a minority government. Using new survey data, Harold Clarke, Thomas J. Scotto and Marianne C. Stewart find that while Canadian voters did approve of the government’s pandemic response, concerns about its handling of the economy and inflation deprived the Liberal party of an election majority

Individual patient data meta-analysis in cancer.

As in many areas of health care, treatments for cancer may differ only moderately in their effects on major end points, such as death. But, such differences are worth knowing about, particularly in common diseases in which they could represent a substantial benefit to public health. Large-scale randomized evidence allows moderate differences to be investigated reliably, and one way to achieve this is by meta-analyses of updated and centrally collected individual patient data from all relevant trials. This paper illustrates why this form of research can often be important in cancer. It also offers the first list of such projects, as a source of information on current and past research in this area

Like Father, Like Son: Justin Trudeau and Valence Voting in Canada's 2015 Federal Election

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this record.Canada’s 2015 federal election was an exiting, as well as a nostalgia provoking, contest. After nine years in office, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the governing Conservatives were defeated by the resurgent Liberals led by Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is the son of Pierre Trudeau, perhaps Canada’s best known prime minister. Analyses of national survey data demonstrate that party leader images—a major component of the “valence politics” model of electoral choice—were important in both cases. Unlike his father, Justin Trudeau was castigated as a “lightweight” and “just not ready.” However, articulating plausible policies to jump-start Canada’s sluggish economy and espousing “sunny ways,” the younger Trudeau was warmly received by many voters. In contrast, Harper’s image of managerial competence was tarnished by bad economic news, and his attempt to refocus the campaign on emotionally charged cultural issues failed. The result was a Liberal majority government and a prime minister named Trudeau

Controllability analysis of multi objective control systems

The performance requirements stated in project specifications often comprise conflicting objectives. These objectives may further be a complex mix of steady state and dynamic performance. Control devices such as solenoid actuators are often chosen purely on steady state force characteristics, due to the difficulty of appraising the conflicting and generally non-linear nature of the performance objectives. This can have ramifications in terms not only of the actuator performance, but also in the overall controllability of the system when closed-loop control is implemented. An example automotive application examining the multi objective controllability of electronically actuated valves is presented. Multi objective evolutionary techniques are utilised to derive the optimal force-displacement characteristics and also dynamic characteristics of the desired actuator under the constraint of design performance criteria. The selected actuator is then assessed for its controllability and dynamic performance

Unsupervised home spirometry versus supervised clinic spirometry for respiratory disease: a systematic methodology review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The number of patients completing unsupervised home spirometry has recently increased due to more widely available portable technology and the COVID-19 pandemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to support it. This systematic methodology review and meta-analysis explores quantitative differences in unsupervised spirometry compared with spirometry completed under professional supervision. METHODS: We searched four databases to find studies that directly compared unsupervised home spirometry with supervised clinic spirometry using a quantitative comparison (e.g. Bland-Altman). There were no restrictions on clinical condition. The primary outcome was measurement differences in common lung function parameters (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC)), which were pooled to calculate overall mean differences with associated limits of agreement (LoA) and confidence intervals (CI). We used the I2 statistic to assess heterogeneity, the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool to assess risk of bias and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to assess evidence certainty for the meta-analyses. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272816). RESULTS: 3607 records were identified and screened, with 155 full texts assessed for eligibility. We included 28 studies that quantitatively compared spirometry measurements, 17 of which reported a Bland-Altman analysis for FEV1 and FVC. Overall, unsupervised spirometry produced lower values than supervised spirometry for both FEV1 with wide variability (mean difference -107 mL; LoA= -509, 296; I2=95.8%; p<0.001; very low certainty) and FVC (mean difference -184 mL, LoA= -1028, 660; I2=96%; p<0.001; very low certainty). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis under the conditions of the included studies indicated that unsupervised spirometry is not interchangeable with supervised spirometry for individual patients owing to variability and underestimation

Towards a risk register for natural capital

1. Natural capital is essential for goods and services on which people depend. Yet pressures on the environment mean that natural capital assets are continuing to decline and degrade, putting such benefits at risk. Systematic monitoring of natural assets is a major challenge that could be both unaffordable and unmanageable without a way to focus efforts. Here we introduce a simple approach, based on the commonly used management tool of a risk register, to highlight natural assets whose condition places benefits at risk. 2. We undertake a preliminary assessment using a risk register for natural capital assets in the UK based solely on existing information. The status and trends of natural capital assets are assessed using asset–benefit relationships for ten kinds of benefits (food, fibre (timber), energy, aesthetics, freshwater (quality), recreation, clean air, wildlife, hazard protection and equable climate) across eight broad habitat types in the UK based on three dimensions of natural capital within each of the habitat types (quality, quantity and spatial configuration). We estimate the status and trends of benefits relative to societal targets using existing regulatory limits and policy commitments, and allocate scores of high, medium or low risk to asset–benefit relationships that are both subject to management and of concern. 3. The risk register approach reveals substantial gaps in knowledge about asset–benefit relationships which limit the scope and rigour of the assessment (especially for marine and urban habitats). Nevertheless, we find strong indications that certain assets (in freshwater, mountain, moors and heathland habitats) are at high risk in relation to their ability to sustain certain benefits (especially freshwater, wildlife and climate regulation). 4. Synthesis and applications. With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset–benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the natural capital risk register could provide a useful tool. If updated regularly, it could direct monitoring efforts, focus research and protect and manage those natural assets where benefits are at highest risk

Resolving the contributions of the membrane-bound and periplasmic nitrate reductase systems to nitric oxide and nitrous oxide production in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium

The production of cytotoxic nitric oxide (NO) and conversion into the neuropharmacological agent and potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) is linked with anoxic nitrate catabolism by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium. Salmonella can synthesize two types of nitrate reductase: a membrane-bound form (Nar) and a periplasmic form (Nap). Nitrate catabolism was studied under nitrate-rich and nitrate-limited conditions in chemostat cultures following transition from oxic to anoxic conditions. Intracellular NO production was reported qualitatively by assessing transcription of the NO-regulated genes encoding flavohaemoglobin (Hmp), flavorubredoxin (NorV) and hybrid cluster protein (Hcp). A more quantitative analysis of the extent of NO formation was gained by measuring production of N2O, the end-product of anoxic NO-detoxification. Under nitrate-rich conditions, the nar, nap, hmp, norV and hcp genes were all induced following transition from the oxic to anoxic state, and 20% of nitrate consumed in steady-state was released as N2O when nitrite had accumulated to millimolar levels. The kinetics of nitrate consumption, nitrite accumulation and N2O production were similar to those of wild-type in nitrate-sufficient cultures of a nap mutant. In contrast, in a narG mutant, the steady-state rate of N2O production was ~30-fold lower than that of the wild-type. Under nitrate-limited conditions, nap, but not nar, was up-regulated following transition from oxic to anoxic metabolism and very little N2O production was observed. Thus a combination of nitrate-sufficiency, nitrite accumulation and an active Nar-type nitrate reductase leads to NO and thence N2O production, and this can account for up to 20% of the nitrate catabolized

Prudence, Principle and Minimal Heuristics: British Public Opinion toward the Use of Military Force in Afghanistan and Libya

Research Highlights and Abstract This article shows: Clear pluralities of British survey respondents opposed their nation's military interventions in Afghanistan and Libya. Opposition to involvement in the conflicts mostly a function of the costs the missions would impose on the nation and concerns about the morality of the missions. Attitudes towards the parties and their leaders are weak predictors of the respondents' attitudes towards involving the nation's military in the conflict. Survey experiment reveals the positions leaders and parties took on sending additional British troops into Afghanistan did not prime support or opposition to such a ‘surge’. Scholarship is divided on the primary drivers of public support for the use of military force. This article addresses this controversy by comparing three competing models of British public opinion towards the use of military force in Afghanistan and Libya. Analyses of national survey data demonstrate that cost-benefit calculations and normative considerations have sizable effects, but leader images and other heuristics have very limited explanatory power. These results are buttressed by experimental evidence showing that leader cues have negligible impacts on attitudes towards participation in a military ‘surge’ in Afghanistan. The minimal role heuristics played in motivating citizen support and opposition to the conflicts in these two countries contrast with their significant relationship to citizen attitudes towards the British intervention in Iraq. These conflicting results suggest that the strength of leader and partisan cues may be animated by the intensity of inter-elite conflict over British involvement in military interventions. </jats:p

Lipid accumulation in isolated perfused rat hearts has no apparent effect on mechanical function or energy metabolism as measured by 31P NMR.

Male Sprague-Dawley rats were fed diets that contained 20% by weight soybean oil or rapeseed oil (21% and 43% erucic acid) for 7 days. The rapeseed oil diets increased the cardiac triacylglycerol content 5-fold and 25-fold, respectively, above control values. Hearts were removed from the animals and perfused with modified Krebs-Henseleit buffer at 37 degrees C. The calculated rate-pressure product was used as a measure of contractile function. 31P NMR spectra were acquired throughout a protocol that consisted of 12 min control perfusion, followed by 12 min perfusion with 20 microM isoproterenol, 12 min washout, 12 min total global ischemia, and 28 min reperfusion. The steady state levels of creatine phosphate, ATP, intracellular pH, contractile function, and the free energy of ATP hydrolysis (delta GATP) were determined for all three groups of hearts. Isoproterenol more than doubled the rate-pressure product of the hearts on all diets and decreased the concentrations of creatine phosphate and ATP with a concomitant rise in Pi. After global ischemia, creatine phosphate levels recovered fully, ATP levels remained low, and most hearts developed ventricular fibrillation. Changes in intracellular pH were the same for all groups: pH was 7.1 throughout the equilibration and isoproterenol perfusion period, decreased to pH approximately 6.4 during ischemia, and returned to 7.0 during reperfusion. The results indicate that the fat accumulation that occurs in the hearts of rats fed diets rich in high erucic acid rapeseed oil does not interfere with the cardiac high energy phosphate metabolism or contractile function.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS