Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex, high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices

Strategic toolkits: seniority, usage and performance in the German SME machinery and equipment sector

This paper examines the strategic tool kit, from a human resource management (HRM) perspective, in terms of usage and impact. Research to date has tended to consider usage, assuming to a certain extent that knowledge and understanding of particular tools suggest that practitioners value them. The research on which this paper is based builds upon the idea that usage indicates satisfaction, but develops the usage theme to investigate which decision-makers are actually engaged in both tool appliance and the strategic process. Of particular interest to the researchers are the educational background, age and seniority of the decision-makers. In addition, potential links with HRM and organizational performance are also explored. The context of the research, the German machinery and equipment sector, provides an insight into the industry's ability to sustain growth in face of increasing international competition. The paper calls for a greater awareness, from a human resource perspective, and utilization of strategic management practice and associated decision-making aids

Spectroscopic characterization of 1.3µm GaInNAs quantum-well structures grown by metal-organic vapor phase epitaxy

We report optical studies of high-quality 1.3 μm strain-compensated GaInNAs/GaAs single-quantum-well structures grown by metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy. Photoluminescence excitation (PLE) spectroscopy shows clearly the electronic structure of the two-dimensional quantum well. The transition energies between quantized states of the electrons and holes are in agreement with theoretical calculations based on the band anti-crossing model in which the localized N states interact with the extended states in the conduction band. We also investigated the polarization properties of the luminescence by polarized edge-emission measurements. Luminescence bands with different polarization characters arising from the electron to heavy-hole and light-hole transitions, respectively, have been identified and verify the transition assignment observed in the PLE spectrum

Different models of genetic variation and their effect on genomic evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The theory of genomic selection is based on the prediction of the effects of quantitative trait loci (QTL) in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with markers. However, there is increasing evidence that genomic selection also relies on "relationships" between individuals to accurately predict genetic values. Therefore, a better understanding of what genomic selection actually predicts is relevant so that appropriate methods of analysis are used in genomic evaluations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulation was used to compare the performance of estimates of breeding values based on pedigree relationships (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, BLUP), genomic relationships (gBLUP), and based on a Bayesian variable selection model (Bayes B) to estimate breeding values under a range of different underlying models of genetic variation. The effects of different marker densities and varying animal relationships were also examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study shows that genomic selection methods can predict a proportion of the additive genetic value when genetic variation is controlled by common quantitative trait loci (QTL model), rare loci (rare variant model), all loci (infinitesimal model) and a random association (a polygenic model). The Bayes B method was able to estimate breeding values more accurately than gBLUP under the QTL and rare variant models, for the alternative marker densities and reference populations. The Bayes B and gBLUP methods had similar accuracies under the infinitesimal model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that Bayes B is superior to gBLUP to estimate breeding values from genomic data. The underlying model of genetic variation greatly affects the predictive ability of genomic selection methods, and the superiority of Bayes B over gBLUP is highly dependent on the presence of large QTL effects. The use of SNP sequence data will outperform the less dense marker panels. However, the size and distribution of QTL effects and the size of reference populations still greatly influence the effectiveness of using sequence data for genomic prediction.</p

A new dromaeosaurid (Dinosauria: Theropoda) from the Upper Cretaceous Wulansuhai Formation of Inner Mongolia, China

We describe a new dromaeosaurid theropod from the Upper Cretaceous Wulansuhai Formation of Bayan Mandahu, Inner Mongolia. The new taxon, Linheraptor exquisitus gen. et sp. nov., is based on an exceptionally well-preserved, nearly complete skeleton. This specimen represents the fifth dromaeosaurid taxon recovered from the Upper Cretaceous Djadokhta Formation and its laterally equivalent strata, which include the Wulansuhai Formation, and adds to the known diversity of Late Cretaceous dromaeosaurids. Linheraptor exquisitus closely resembles the recently reported Tsaagan mangas. Uniquely among dromaeosaurids, the two taxa share a large, anteriorly located maxillary fenestra and a contact between the jugal and the squamosal that excludes the postorbital from the infratemporal fenestra. These features suggest a sister-taxon relationship between L. exquisitus and T. mangas, which indicates the presence of a unique dromaeosaurid lineage in the Late Cretaceous of Asia. A number of cranial and dental features seen in L. exquisitus and T. mangas, and particularly some postcranial features of L. exquisitus, suggest that these two taxa are probably intermediate in systematic position between known basal and derived dromaeosaurids. The discovery of Linheraptor exquisitus is thus important for understanding the evolution of some salient features seen in the derived dromaeosaurids

Sensing Sound And Space:Auditory And Visual Spatial ImpressionIn Three Auditoria

In some contexts, the experience of sound and space are often considered as two unrelated experiences. In an auditorium, the senses of hearing and seeing are not necessary unrelated. This thesis proposes that there is a sensorial relationship between sound and space in the context of symphonic concert halls. Through a study of three auditoria, this thesis explores the relationship, and the degree of correspondence and interaction between auditory and visual spatial impression. It begins by exploring the concepts of auditory and visual spatial impression in relation with auditorium acoustics and architectural design. In auditorium acoustics, a number of terms are used to describe auditory spatial impression, such as 'spaciousness,' 'envelopment,' and 'intimacy.' These terms have connotations beyond the auditory. The thesis suggests that they may also be used to describe visual spatial impression in auditoria. Through textual analyses, the thesis finds that the auditory and visual terms do not always relate to the same physical characteristics of auditoria and can conflict with one another. Hence, it is apparent that further subjective analyses of auditory and spatial impression are needed. Three chapters in this thesis are devoted to auditory and visual subjective experiments. Their purpose is to explore the degree of correspondence or contrast, and interaction between auditory and visual spatial impression. The degree of correspondence and contrast between auditory and visual spatial impression appear to vary between auditoria and within auditoria. The relationship between auditory and visual spatial impression appear to be both necessary and arbitrary, and the degree of interaction between them appear to be strong in some cases and weak in other. From the findings, this thesis suggests that the degree of correspondence or contrast, and interaction between auditory and visual spatial impression could be used to create an audiovisual experience that suit specific musical events. Concert auditoria are culturally and artistically unique spaces. Hence, consideration must be taken to understand the relationships between, and intentions of the acoustical and architectural designs, music and architecture, for a successful and creative collaboration between designers - since the ultimate goal is to create an extraordinary audiovisual experience in a concert hall

The importance of information on relatives for the prediction of genomic breeding values and the implications for the makeup of reference data sets in livestock breeding schemes.

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The theory of genomic selection is based on the prediction of the effects of genetic markers in linkage disequilibrium with quantitative trait loci. However, genomic selection also relies on relationships between individuals to accurately predict genetic value. This study aimed to examine the importance of information on relatives versus that of unrelated or more distantly related individuals on the estimation of genomic breeding values.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulated and real data were used to examine the effects of various degrees of relationship on the accuracy of genomic selection. Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (gBLUP) was compared to two pedigree based BLUP methods, one with a shallow one generation pedigree and the other with a deep ten generation pedigree. The accuracy of estimated breeding values for different groups of selection candidates that had varying degrees of relationships to a reference data set of 1750 animals was investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The gBLUP method predicted breeding values more accurately than BLUP. The most accurate breeding values were estimated using gBLUP for closely related animals. Similarly, the pedigree based BLUP methods were also accurate for closely related animals, however when the pedigree based BLUP methods were used to predict unrelated animals, the accuracy was close to zero. In contrast, gBLUP breeding values, for animals that had no pedigree relationship with animals in the reference data set, allowed substantial accuracy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>An animal's relationship to the reference data set is an important factor for the accuracy of genomic predictions. Animals that share a close relationship to the reference data set had the highest accuracy from genomic predictions. However a baseline accuracy that is driven by the reference data set size and the overall population effective population size enables gBLUP to estimate a breeding value for unrelated animals within a population (breed), using information previously ignored by pedigree based BLUP methods.</p

Multiple plasmon resonances from gold nanostructures

Understanding and controlling plasmon resonances from metallic nanoscale structures have been the focus of much attention recently, with applications including local surface plasmon resonance sensing, surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy, and negative refractive index materials. In this letter the authors demonstrate the fabrication of uniform arrays of split rings from gold and show that such structures are capable of supporting multiple plasmon resonances. The authors show that up to five plasmon resonances can be identified and use finite difference time domain modeling and absorption spectroscopy to fully characterize and identify each resonance. The implications of higher order surface plasmon resonances for sensing are discussed

Janus within Janus

We found a simple and interesting generalization of the non-supersymmetric Janus solution in type IIB string theory. The Janus solution can be thought of as a thick AdS_d-sliced domain wall in AdS_{d+1} space. It turns out that the AdS_d-sliced domain wall can support its own AdS_{d-1}-sliced domain wall within it. Indeed this pattern persists further until it reaches the AdS_2-slice of the domain wall within self-similar AdS_{p (2<p\le d)}-sliced domain walls. In other words the solution represents a sequence of little Janus nested in the interface of the parent Janus according to a remarkably simple ``nesting'' rule. Via the AdS/CFT duality, the dual gauge theory description is in general an interface CFT of higher codimensions.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, v2 references added. v3 eq.(3.33) correcte

The algebra of adjacency patterns: Rees matrix semigroups with reversion

We establish a surprisingly close relationship between universal Horn classes of directed graphs and varieties generated by so-called adjacency semigroups which are Rees matrix semigroups over the trivial group with the unary operation of reversion. In particular, the lattice of subvarieties of the variety generated by adjacency semigroups that are regular unary semigroups is essentially the same as the lattice of universal Horn classes of reflexive directed graphs. A number of examples follow, including a limit variety of regular unary semigroups and finite unary semigroups with NP-hard variety membership problems.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figure