A reliable rainfall–runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semi-urbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy

Many rainfall–runoff (RR) models are available in the scientific literature. Selecting the best structure and parameterization for a model is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors, including climatic conditions, catchment characteristics, temporal/spatial resolution and model objectives. In this study, the RR model 'Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo' (MISDc), mainly developed for flood simulation in Mediterranean basins, was tested on the Seveso basin, which is stressed several times a year by flooding events mainly caused by excessive urbanization. The work summarizes a compendium of the MISDc applications over a wide range of catchments in European countries and then it analyses the performances over the Seveso basin. The results show a good fit behaviour during both the calibration and the validation periods with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient index larger than 0.9. Moreover, the median volume and peak discharge errors calculated on several flood events were less than 25%. In conclusion, we can be assured that the reliability and computational speed could make the MISDc model suitable for flood estimation in many catchments of different geographical contexts and land use characteristics. Moreover, MISDc will also be useful for future support of real-time decision-making for flood risk management in the Seveso basin

INFLUENZA DELLA NITROCARBURAZIONE IONICA SULLA MICROSTRUTTURA E LA RESISTENZA A FATICA DI ACCIAI SINTERIZZATI

La nitrocarburazione al plasma di acciai sinterizzati conferisce resistenza superficiale e limita le variazioni dimensionali. Mentre le caratteristiche microstrutturali degli strati nitrurati, in linea generale, dipendono poco dal processo di produzione dell’acciaio sinterizzato, le proprietà risultanti, che sono una sintesi delle caratteristiche del materiale base e delle modifiche introdotte dalla nitrurazione, possono esserne influenzate anche significativamente. In questo lavoro, acciai sinterizzati di interesse per il settore dei trasporti, sono stati prodotti con parametri diversi, e sottoposti allo stesso trattamento di nitrocarburazione. E’ stata condotta l’analisi microstrutturale e sono state determinate le proprietà meccaniche, con particolare riferimento alla resistenza a fatica

Spatial analysis of individual- and village-level sociodemographic characteristics associated with age at marriage among married adolescents in rural Niger.

BACKGROUND: Niger has the highest prevalence of child marriage in the world. While child marriage in Niger is clearly normative in the sense that it is commonly practiced, the social and contextual factors that contribute to it are still unclear. METHODS: Here, we tested the importance of village-level factors as predictors of young age at marriage for a group of married adolescent girls (N = 1031) in the Dosso district of rural Niger, using multi-level and geographic analyses. We aggregated significant individual level factors to determine whether, independent of a girl's own sociodemographic characteristics, the impact of each factor is associated at the village level. Finally, we tested for spatial dependence and heterogeneity in examining whether the village-level associations we find with age at marriage differ geographically. RESULTS: The mean age of marriage for girls in our study was 14.20 years (SD 1.8). Our statistical results are consistent with other literature suggesting that education is associated with delayed marriage, even among adolescent girls. Younger ages at marriage are also associated with a greater age difference between spouses and with a greater likelihood of women being engaged in agricultural work. Consistent with results at the individual level, at the village level we found that the proportion of girls who do agricultural work and the mean age difference between spouses were both predictive of a lower age at marriage for individual girls. Finally, mapping age at marriage at the village level revealed that there is geographical variation in age at marriage, with a cluster of hot spots in the Hausa-dominated eastern area where age at marriage is particularly low and a cluster of cold spots in the Zarma-dominated western areas where age at marriage is relatively high. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that large-scale approaches to eliminating child marriage in these communities may be less successful if they do not take into consideration geographically and socially determined contextual factors at the village level

Theory and practice of social norms interventions: eight common pitfalls.

BACKGROUND: Recently, Global Health practitioners, scholars, and donors have expressed increased interest in "changing social norms" as a strategy to promote health and well-being in low and mid-income countries (LMIC). Despite this burgeoning interest, the ability of practitioners to use social norm theory to inform health interventions varies widely. MAIN BODY: Here, we identify eight pitfalls that practitioners must avoid as they plan to integrate a social norms perspective in their interventions, as well as eight learnings. These learnings are: 1) Social norms and attitudes are different; 2) Social norms and attitudes can coincide; 3) Protective norms can offer important resources for achieving effective social improvement in people's health-related practices; 4) Harmful practices are sustained by a matrix of factors that need to be understood in their interactions; 5) The prevalence of a norm is not necessarily a sign of its strength; 6) Social norms can exert both direct and indirect influence; 7) Publicising the prevalence of a harmful practice can make things worse; 8) People-led social norm change is both the right and the smart thing to do. CONCLUSIONS: As the understanding of how norms evolve in LMIC advances, practitioners will develop greater understanding of what works to help people lead change in harmful norms within their contexts. Awareness of these pitfalls has helped several of them increase the effectiveness of their interventions addressing social norms in the field. We are confident that others will benefit from these reflections as well

Cancer mortality in a cohort of asbestos textile workers

A cohort of 889 men and 1077 women employed for at least 1 month between 1946 and 1984 by a former Italian leading asbestos (mainly textile) company, characterised by extremely heavy exposures often for short durations, was followed up to 1996, for a total of 53 024 person-years of observation. Employment data were obtained from factory personnel records, while vital status and causes of death were ascertained through municipality registers and local health units. We observed 222 cancer deaths compared with 116.4 expected (standardized mortality ratio, SMR=191). The highest ratios were found for pleural (SMR=4105), peritoneal (SMR=1817) and lung (SMR=282) cancers. We observed direct relationships with duration of employment for lung and peritoneal cancer, and with time since first employment for lung cancer and mesothelioma. Pleural cancer risk was independent from duration (SMR=3428 for employment <1 year, 7659 for 1–4 years, 2979 for 5–9 years and 2130 for ⩾10 years). Corresponding SMRs for lung cancer were 139, 251, 233 and 531. Nonsignificantly increased ratios were found for ovarian (SMR=261), laryngeal (SMR=238) and oro-pharyngeal (SMR=226) cancers. This study confirms and further quantifies the central role of latency in pleural mesothelioma and of cumulative exposure in lung cancer