Bacchi, B.

Ceppi, A.

Cislaghi, M.

Ehret, U.

Hegg, C.

Jaun, S.

Marx, A.

Ranzi, R.

Zappa, M.

English

KITopen

SHF,  Lyon, 18-19/11/2008Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble forecasts in MAP D-PHASERoberto Ranzi, Baldassare Bacchi, University of Brescia, DICATA (I)Alessandro Ceppi, Politecnico di Milano, DIIAR (I)Matteo Cislaghi ARPA Lombardia, (I)Uwe Ehret Wasserwirtschaftsamt Kempten, (D)Simon Jaun, IAC ETH Zurich, (CH)Andreas Marx, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IMK-IFU (D)Christoph Hegg, Massimiliano Zappa, WSL, (CH)Outline of the presentation• MAP D-PHASE presentation• Impact areas in the Alps• Criteria for meteorological and hydrological warning thresholds• Results of hydrological forecast chains• Hydrology-oriented end users feedbackMAP D-PHASE• Follow up of MAP-Mesoscale Alpine Programme (Bougeault et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2001)• Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine regionis the second (after Sydney Olympics) Forecast Demonstration Project of the WWRP-World Weather Research Programme. Real time in June-Nov. 2007 • Main objective was to test and demonstrate to end-usersthe benefits in forecasting heavy precipitation and related flood events in real-time, and especially in ensemble mode.• Meteorological aspects Rotach et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2008 (submitted)WG HEU ‘Hydrology and End users’Chairs: Christoph Hegg (WSL, CH), Roberto Ranzi Main tasks:1. definition of the hydrological basins (‘impact areas’) and the control sections where average precipitation, andrunoff will be computed for verification;2. definition of common needs of hydrological modellersand end users with respect to atmospheric model output (e.g., parameters, meteorological warning thresholds,..);3. Collect feedback from end users who had access to a Visualisation Platform4. definition of common format of hydrologic model output and runoff warning levels thresholdsImpact areas (hydrological basins) in the AlpsToce Lago Maggiore Lambro OglioIller                   Lech          AmmerLinth                       • VENICE1. Attention level (yellow): annual maxima corresponding to mean of annual maxima m- 2St.dev. From theoretical considerations of Poisson occurrence of events with exponential probability distribution function this corresponds to about 7 events/year of the daily precipitation statistics. 2. Alert level (orange): return period of 1.15 years in the tables corresponding to mean of annual maxima m-St.dev corresponding to about 2 events/year of the daily precipitation statistics. 3. Alarm level (red): return period of 10 years.Meteorological thresholds over > 100 of target and impact areas for duration of 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72 hFrom Frei 2006 0.25° gridded daily precipitation,• statistics of gridded annual maxima were computed, • Extreme Value of the 1st type Cumulative Distribution Function• and scaling of rainfall depth h with duration d was assumed   h=adnwith exponent n increasing with altitude (after literature)• Areal Reduction Factor scaling with area and duration117584012h165825624h2331157948h2841419772h83412806h59292003hT=10Yearsm-s2/yrsm-2s7/ yrTicinoThe ‘engineering’ solution for the threshold task:123543312h173764624h2431066548h2971307972h87382306h622716.603hT=10Yearsm-s2/yrsm-2s7 / yrToceMap of the impact areas superimposed to the mean of annual maxima of daily precipitation, computed after the Frei, 2006 climatology. Notice: impact areas are nested into larger basins and are not visible.Hydrological  Impact areasMETEO (+hydro + users):1. ARPA-FVG OSMER Friuli2. ARPA-Valle d’Aosta3. Meteotrentino 4. ARPA-ER**5. CNR.ISAC**6. ARPA-Liguria**7. APAT****run meteo modelsHYDROLOGY- ORIENTED END USERS:1. ENEL – Mestre (I)2. Consorzio dell’Oglio Water Authority (I)3. ARPA Lombardia, (I)4. SOI-Ufficio Dighe–PAT–Trento (I)5. Protezione Civile Regionale- FVG (I)6. ARPA Piemonte (I)7. Several in Switzerland8. WWA (D)9. Env. Agency of Slovenja (SLO)10. Meteo-Hydro Service (HR)HYDRO-Forecasters in real-time1. University of Brescia2. ARPA Lombardia3. Politecnico di Milano and Arpa Piemonte4. WSL, IACETH (CH)5. IMK-IFU Karlsruhe (D)6. Wasserwirtschaftsamt Kempten (D)Questionnaires feedbackReal-time modelling chains(Italian Alps)In SwitzerlandCOSMO 2km & LEPS (Meteo)and Radar Ensemble (Germann et al. 2008)+PREVAH (Hydro)In the Bavarian AlpsMM5 15 km + WaSimfor Ammer watershed (710 km2)Oglio@Sarnico (1840 km2)-500501001502002503003501/8/071/9/071/10/071/11/071/12/07Level (cm)- Runoff (m³/s)Iseo Lake levelRiver level at CedegoloInflow at Sarnico (m3/s)2 events/year thresholdIn the Italian AlpsLambro basin LombardyMilano Via Feltre sectionARPA Lombardia used the precipitation fields, of four meteorological  models, to perform real time hydrologic forecast on Lambro river (562 km2)  (Sept-nov)CLEPS (ARPA Emr,  10 km, 132 h)LAMI28 (ARPA Emr, 2.8 km, 48 h)ISACMOL (ISAC CNR, 2.2 km , 39 h)ARPALMOL (ARPA Liguria, 2.2 km , 36 h)ARPA team: Matteo Cislaghi, Michele Russo02040608010012020-Nov 22-Nov 24-Nov 26-Nov 28-Nov 30-Nov 2-DecDAYm3/sCLEPS 19RAINGAUGESOBSERVEDTARO T>10 yrs G. Grossi, UNIBSStarting with the end of October it was possible to compare inreal-time the results of up to 7 meteo-hydrological forecasting chains (3 Ensemble+ 4 Detetministic) for the Toce at Candoglia.(Map case study e.g. Bontron, Djerboua, & Obled, LHB, 2002.Warnings for the 22-26 November ‘flood’.ISACMOL 2.3 km GRIDUnsaturated soil root zoneS qsubStorage      Subsurface  capacity    Darcian flowqsub=f KAJ                             Q=qsur+qsubTotal channel flowOverland kinematic wave flow qsurQs+F(1-r)F                        rF r upper layers sat. zone recharge fractionJ=iRainfall(+snowmelt)     PEvapotranspiration lossesModel schemeCalibration of r-recharge and f-transmissivity parameters• SCS partitioning of  Qs surface and F subsurface volumeor•GAM  Infiltration modelEnd user feedback (interview to M.Buizza, Consorzio dell’Oglio dam        c Authority on the basis    c of the feedback form)NWP HYDROL NOWCAST OBSERVATIONSNO REACTION X X XCONTACTS WITHHYDROLOGISTINTERNAL EVALUATIONPERSONNELL ALERTEDALARM 44DIMOSOP33ISACMOL44CLEPSRelevance for decisionsMarks1=bad,…,6 excellentNWP HYDROL NOWCAST OBSERVATIONSNO REACTION X X XCONTACTS WITHHYDROLOGISTINTERNAL EVALUATIONPERSONNELL ALERTEDALARM 44DIMOSOP22ISACMOL33CLEPSRelevance for decisionsMarks1=bad,…,6 excellentNWP HYDROL NOWCAST OBSERVATIONSNO REACTIONCONTACTS WITHHYDROLOGISTINTERNAL EVALUATION X X XPERSONNELL ALERTEDALARM 44DIMOSOP33ISACMOL44CLEPSRelevance for decisionsMarks1=bad,…,6 excellentNWP HYDROL NOWCAST OBSERVATIONSNO REACTIONCONTACTS WITHHYDROLOGISTINTERNAL EVALUATION XPERSONNELL ALERTED X XALARM 53DIMOSOP32ISACMOL53CLEPSRelevance for decisionsMarks1=bad,…,6 excellentThe problem of the ‘outliers’Feedback from ENEL (Hydropower dams)02040608010012014016018020022/ 11/ 2007 0.00 23/ 11/ 2007 0.00 24/ 11/ 2007 0.00 25/ 11/ 2007 0.00 26/ 11/ 2007 0.00 27/ 11/ 2007 0.00 28/ 11/ 2007 0.00 29/ 11/ 2007 0.00MisurataISACMOL010020030040050060070080022/ 11/ 2007 0.00 23/ 11/ 2007 0.00 24/ 11/ 2007 0.00 25/ 11/ 2007 0.00 26/ 11/ 2007 0.00 27/ 11/ 2007 0.00 28/ 11/ 2007 0.00 29/ 11/ 2007 0.00MisurataCLEPS34DIMOSOP33ISACMOL32CLEPSRelevance for decisionsMarksConclusions• 16 modelling chains were in operation in the Alps in D-PHASE and up to 7 in parallel for Toce☺• CLEPS better than ISACMOL/2 for Chiese and Oglio (good results)but worse for small dam-gauged basins • Some CLEPS-outliers (or ‘crazy members’) also for dry events might alert a ‘risk-adverse’ end user. End user training and ‘calibration’ needed. • Experienced end users weight the importance of forecasts vs. observations for their decision. ☺• Surface raingauge and hydrometric real time observation are of key importance for hydrological model updating and initialisation• One sure hydrological benefit from D-PHASE: one discharge measurement done by ARPA Lombardia on the basis of the forecasts

Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble forecasts in MAP D-PHASE

https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/170070924/3815192

Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble forecasts in MAP D-PHASE

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