Predicting Invasion Risk Using Measures of Introduction Effort and Environmental Niche Models

The Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) is native to east Asia, is established throughout Europe, and is introduced but geographically restricted in North America. We developed and compared two separate environmental niche models using genetic algorithm for rule set prediction (GARP) and mitten crab occurrences in Asia and Europe to predict the species\u27 potential distribution in North America. Since mitten crabs must reproduce in water with ≥15‰ salinity, we limited the potential North American range to freshwater habitats within the highest documented dispersal distance (1260 km) and a more restricted dispersal limit (354 km) from the sea. Applying the higher dispersal distance, both models predicted the lower Great Lakes, most of the eastern seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and southern extent of the Mississippi River watershed, and the Pacific northwest as suitable environment for mitten crabs, but environmental match for southern states (below 35° N) was much lower for the European model. Use of the lower range with both models reduced the expected range, especially in the Great Lakes, Mississippi drainage, and inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. To estimate the risk of introduction of mitten crabs, the amount of reported ballast water discharge into major United States ports from regions in Asia and Europe with established mitten crab populations was used as an index of introduction effort. Relative risk of invasion was estimated based on a combination of environmental match and volume of unexchanged ballast water received (July 1999–December 2003) for major ports. The ports of Norfolk and Baltimore were most vulnerable to invasion and establishment, making Chesapeake Bay the most likely location to be invaded by mitten crabs in the United States. The next highest risk was predicted for Portland, Oregon. Interestingly, the port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, which has a large shipping volume, had a low risk of invasion. Ports such as Jacksonville, Florida, had a medium risk owing to small shipping volume but high environmental match. This study illustrates that the combination of environmental niche- and vector-based models can provide managers with more precise estimates of invasion risk than can either of these approaches alone

High-Throughput Sequencing for Understanding the Ecology of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Wildlife-Human Interface

Rising rates of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) demand creative, efficient, and integrative investigations to understand their transmission, ecological contingencies, and dynamics at wildlife-human interfaces. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) methodologies provide enormous potential to unravel these contingencies to improve our understanding, but their potential is only just starting to be realized. While recent work has largely focused on novel pathogen discovery at likely interfaces, high-throughput methods can also allow disease ecologists to better explore the critical effects of climate, seasonality, and land-use changes on EIDs. HTS can facilitate the creation of entire host-pathogen networks, integrate important microbiome and co-infection data, and even pinpoint important exposure routes at interfaces through environmental media. Here we highlight studies at the frontier of HTS and disease ecology research, identify current limitations, and outline promising future applications for EIDs

Weed Risk Assessment for Aquatic Plants: Modification of a New Zealand System for the United States

We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand’s Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders), and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31–39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species

Detecting Southern California’s White Sharks With Environmental DNA

To improve ability to detect white sharks without the need for tags, or visual census, we developed a species-specific environmental DNA (eDNA) assay that targets a 163 bp fragment of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) mitochondrial cytochrome B gene on a digital droplet PCR (ddPCR) platform. We used this marker to detect white shark DNA in 250 ml water samples taken from across two sites in Santa Barbara, California (United States) frequented by juvenile white sharks. We did not detect white shark DNA in samples from two neighboring sites where sharks are presumably absent, suggesting that eDNA can indicate nearby white sharks. This marker development, testing, and opportunistic application in a region with known distributions of white sharks indicates that eDNA could be developed further to monitor white sharks, thereby informing conservation planning and public safety. With the potential increase in white shark populations due to decades of protection, there is a need for fishery independent methods for assessing white shark distributions, and eDNA may provide an ideal, non-intrusive tool for coastal assessments

Investigating diversity of pathogenic microbes in commercial bait trade water

The recreational bait trade is a potential pathway for pathogen introduction and spread when anglers dump bait shop sourced water into aquatic systems. Despite this possibility, and previous recognition of the importance of the bait trade in the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS), to date there has been no region wide survey documenting pathogens in retail bait shops. In this study, we analyzed 96 environmental DNA samples from retail bait shops around the Great Lakes region to identify pathogens, targeting the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. Additionally, we used samples from one site in Lake Michigan as a comparison to pathogen diversity and abundance in natural aquatic systems. Our results identified nine different groups of pathogens in the bait shop samples, including those that pose risks to both humans and fish species. Compared to wild sourced samples, the bait shops had higher relative abundance and greater taxonomic diversity. These findings suggest that the bait trade represents a potentially important pathway that could introduce and spread pathogens throughout the Great Lakes region. Improving pathogen screening and angler outreach should be used in combination to aid in preventing the future spread of high risk pathogens

Eurasian watermilfoil fitness loss and invasion potential following desiccation during simulated overland transport

Abstract Vegetative reproduction promotes human-mediated dispersal of aquatic invasive plants as fragments "hitchhike" between water bodies on boats and trailers. However, desiccation of plant fragments may also reduce fitness, decreasing the likelihood of fragment survival as transport distances increase. Current inter-lake invasive species spread models do not directly consider fitness loss due to desiccation and mechanical damage of the transport pathway. Here, we estimate survival as a function of desiccation exposure for Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum). Following desiccation treatments, we monitored survival and root formation of individual fragments and assessed the differences between treatments. Highest survival rates occurred for short (< one hour) air exposures and coiled fragments with root production for the coiled treatment occurring in less than two weeks, irrespective of fragment length. In contrast, fragments that experienced desiccation for more than 24 hours had little risk of surviving. Our results emphasize the threat posed by same-day overland movements of boats from invaded to uninvaded waterways, and provide managers with a surveillance radius to inform delimitation surveys arising from the discovery of a new invasion

肥満糖尿病ラットにおける胃バイパス後の選択的腸管刺激による糖代謝への影響

研究科: 医学薬学府学位:千大院医薬博甲第医1000号要約博士(医学)千葉大

Implementing invasive species control: a case study of multi-jurisdictional coordination at Lake Tahoe, USA

Biological invasions are increasing in frequency and the need to mitigate or control their effects is a major challenge to natural resource managers. Failure to control invasive species has been attributed to inadequate policies, resources or scientific knowledge. Often, natural resource managers with limited funds are tasked with the development of an invasive species control program without access to key decision-support information such as whether or not an invasive species will cause damage, and what the extent of that damage may be. Once damages are realized, knowing where to allocate resources and target control efforts is not straightforward. Here we present the history of invasive species policy development and management in a large, multi-jurisdictional and multi-use aquatic ecosystem. We present a science-based decision-support tool for on-the-ground aquatic invasive species (AIS) control to support the development of a sustainable control program. Lastly, we provide a set of recommendations for managers desiring to make an AIS control implementation plan based upon our development of novel invasive species research, policy and management in Lake Tahoe (USA). We find that a sustainable invasive species control program is possible when science, coordination and outreach are integrated

Estimating relative risk of within-lake aquatic plant invasion using combined measures of recreational boater movement and habitat suitability

Effective monitoring, prevention and impact mitigation of nonindigenous aquatic species relies upon the ability to predict dispersal pathways and receiving habitats with the greatest risk of establishment. To examine mechanisms affecting species establishment within a large lake, we combined observations of recreational boater movements with empirical measurements of habitat suitability represented by nearshore wave energy to assess the relative risk of Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) establishment. The model was evaluated using information from a 17 year (1995–2012) sequence of M. spicatum presence and absence monitoring. M. spicatum presence was not specifically correlated with recreational boater movements; however its establishment appears to be limited by wave action in Lake Tahoe. Of the sites in the “High” establishment risk category (n = 37), 54% had current or historical infestations, which included 8 of the 10 sites with the highest relative risk. Of the 11 sites in the “Medium” establishment risk category, 5 had current or historical M. spicatum populations. Most (76%) of the sites in the “Low” establishment risk category were observed in locations with higher wave action. Four sites that received zero boater visits from infested locations were occupied by M. spicatum. This suggests that the boater survey either represents incomplete coverage of boater movement, or other processes, such as the movement of propagules by surface currents or introductions from external sources are important to the establishment of this species. This study showed the combination of habitat specific and dispersal data in a relative risk framework can potentially reduce uncertainty in estimates of invasion risk