Building networks of Markov decision processes to achieve synchronised behaviour from complex multi-agent systems

Complex multi-agent systems, consisting of multiple decision making agents as part of a larger collective, are particularly complex control problems, because of the potential for emergent (and potentially undesirable or even unsafe) behaviours to arise from the interaction between separate agents. When a number of autonomous systems interact with one another, be they robotic systems, intelligent software agents, or autonomous vehicles, they can become a complex multi-agent system, potentially prone to emergent behaviours. Understanding, controlling and assuring complex multi-agent systems is a difficult challenge for the systems engineer, through all stages of the engineering lifecycle. There is often no simple mechanism to control the behaviour of the whole, and no established formal techniques for system proving. The underpinning mathematics is too far removed from the systems of years gone by for established techniques to be transferrable. This thesis takes a fresh look at this topic using the mathematical framework of complexity science and theoretical aspects of systems science to begin to tackle this knotty problem domain. Synchronised robotics is a concept introduced for this PhD to describe systems consisting of multiple robotic appendages acting independently based on simple control logic, but unbeknownst to the individual robots also acting as part of a carefully choreographed collective system. Synchronised robotics provides an ideal application area from which to develop and explore an exemplar scenario. Production line robotics are the chosen exemplar. This thesis shows how systems science principles can be utilised to represent all kinds of complex multi-agent system, with different internal network structures between decision nodes mirroring the myriad of ways that a systems architect might choose to construct his or her system. It then proceeds to show how to generalise the Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation to these networks, to produce models of interactive autonomy. This novel approach to systems design and proving is brought to life through application to the production line robotics exemplar, for which a mathematical model based on the processes and techniques described has been built, tested, and initial results obtained demonstrating the potential efficacy of the approach for capturing the complex behaviours displayed, providing a control mechanism with improved resilience to correcting undesirable emergent behaviours, and pointing a way towards a potential future system proving tool for multi-agent systems

Trans-activation, post-transcriptional maturation, and induction of antibodies to HERV-K (HML-2) envelope transmembrane protein in HIV-1 infection

Background Human Endogenous Retroviruses (HERVs) comprise about 8% of the human genome and have lost their ability to replicate or to produce infectious particles after having accumulated mutations over time. We assessed the kinetics of expression of HERV-K (HML-2) Envelope mRNA transcript and surface unit (SU) and transmembrane (TM) subunit proteins during HIV-1 infection. We also mapped the specificity of the humoral response to HERV-K (HML-2) Envelope protein in HIV-1 infected subjects at different stages of disease, and correlated the response with plasma viral load. Results We found that HIV-1 modified HERV-K (HML-2) Env mRNA expression, resulting in the expression of a fully N-glycosylated HERV-K (HML-2) envelope protein on the cell surface. Serological mapping of HERV-K (HML-2) envelope protein linear epitopes revealed two major immunogenic domains, one on SU and another on the ectodomain of TM. The titers of HERV-K (HML-2) TM antibodies were dramatically increased in HIV-1 infected subjects (p \u3c 0.0001). HIV-1 infected adults who control HIV-1 in the absence of therapy (“elite” controllers) had a higher titer response against TM compared to antiretroviral-treated adults (p \u3c 0.0001) and uninfected adults (p \u3c 0.0001). Conclusions These data collectively suggest that HIV-1 infection induces fully glycosylated HERV-K (HML-2) envelope TM protein to which antibodies are induced. These anti-HERV-K (HML-2) TM antibodies are a potential marker of HIV-1 infection, and are at higher titer in elite controllers. HERV-K (HML-2) envelope TM protein may be a new therapeutic target in HIV-1 infection

A quantitative approach for measuring the reservoir of latent HIV-1 proviruses.

A stable latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting CD4+ T cells is the principal barrier to a cure1-3. Curative strategies that target the reservoir are being tested4,5 and require accurate, scalable reservoir assays. The reservoir was defined with quantitative viral outgrowth assays for cells that release infectious virus after one round of T cell activation1. However, these quantitative outgrowth assays and newer assays for cells that produce viral RNA after activation6 may underestimate the reservoir size because one round of activation does not induce all proviruses7. Many studies rely on simple assays based on polymerase chain reaction to detect proviral DNA regardless of transcriptional status, but the clinical relevance of these assays is unclear, as the vast majority of proviruses are defective7-9. Here we describe a more accurate method of measuring the HIV-1 reservoir that separately quantifies intact and defective proviruses. We show that the dynamics of cells that carry intact and defective proviruses are different in vitro and in vivo. These findings have implications for targeting the intact proviruses that are a barrier to curing HIV infection

The role of CDC48 in the retro-translocation of non-ubiquitinated toxin substrates in plant cells

When the catalytic A subunits of the castor bean toxins ricin and Ricinus communis agglutinin (denoted as RTA and RCA A, respectively) are delivered into the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) of tobacco protoplasts, they become substrates for ER-associated protein degradation (ERAD). As such, these orphan polypeptides are retro-translocated to the cytosol, where a significant proportion of each protein is degraded by proteasomes. Here we begin to characterise the ERAD pathway in plant cells, showing that retro-translocation of these lysine-deficient glycoproteins requires the ATPase activity of cytosolic CDC48. Lysine polyubiquitination is not obligatory for this step. We also show that while RCA A is found in a mannose-untrimmed form prior to its retro-translocation, a significant proportion of newly synthesised RTA cycles via the Golgi and becomes modified by downstream glycosylation enzymes. Despite these differences, both proteins are similarly retro-translocated

Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background More than 10 years have elapsed since human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of the population-level impact of vaccinating girls and women against human papillomavirus on HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+)to summarise the most recent evidence about the effectiveness of HPV vaccines in real-world settings and to quantify the impact of multiple age-cohort vaccination.Methods In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, we used the same search strategy as in our previous paper. We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies published between Feb 1, 2014, and Oct 11, 2018. Studies were eligible if they compared the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of at least one HPV-related endpoint (genital HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, or histologically confirmed CIN2+) between pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods among the general population and if they used the same population sources and recruitment methods before and after vaccination. Our primary assessment was the relative risk (RR) comparing the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of HPV-related endpoints between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. We stratified all analyses by sex, age, and years since introduction of HPV vaccination. We used random-effects models to estimate pooled relative risks.Findings We identified 1702 potentially eligible articles for this systematic review and meta-analysis, and included 65 articles in 14 high-income countries: 23 for HPV infection, 29 for anogenital warts, and 13 for CIN2+.After 5\u20138 years of vaccination, the prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 decreased significantly by 83% (RR 0\ub717, 95% CI 0\ub711\u20130\ub725) among girls aged 13\u201319 years, and decreased significantly by 66% (RR 0\ub734, 95% CI 0\ub723\u20130\ub749) among women aged 20\u201324 years. The prevalence of HPV 31, 33, and 45 decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0\ub733\u20130\ub766) among girls aged 13\u201319 years. Anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 67% (RR 0\ub733, 95% CI 0\ub724\u20130\ub746) among girls aged 15\u201319 years, decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0.36\u20130.60) among women aged 20\u201324 years, and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub753\u20130\ub789) among women aged 25\u201329 years. Among boys aged 15\u201319 years anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 48% (RR 0\ub752, 95% CI 0\ub737\u20130\ub775) and among men aged 20\u201324 years they decreased significantly by 32% (RR 0\ub768, 95% CI 0\ub747\u20130\ub798). After 5\u20139 years of vaccination, CIN2+ decreased significantly by 51% (RR 0\ub749, 95% CI 0\ub742\u20130\ub758) among screened girls aged 15\u201319 years and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub757\u20130\ub784) among women aged 20\u201324 years.Interpretation This updated systematic review and meta-analysis includes data from 60 million individuals and up to 8 years of post-vaccination follow-up. Our results show compelling evidence of the substantial impact of HPV vaccination programmes on HPV infections and CIN2+ among girls and women, and on anogenital warts diagnoses among girls, women, boys, and men. Additionally, programmes with multi-cohort vaccination and high vaccination coverage had a greater direct impact and herd effects

Effects of Combined CCR5/Integrase Inhibitors-Based Regimen on Mucosal Immunity in HIV-Infected Patients Naïve to Antiretroviral Therapy: A Pilot Randomized Trial

Whether initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens aimed at achieving greater concentrations within gut associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) impacts the level of mucosal immune reconstitution, inflammatory markers and the viral reservoir remains unknown. We included 12 HIV- controls and 32 ART-naïve HIV patients who were randomized to efavirenz, maraviroc or maraviroc+raltegravir, each with fixed-dose tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine. Rectal and duodenal biopsies were obtained at baseline and at 9 months of ART. We performed a comprehensive assay of T-cell subsets by flow cytometry, T-cell density in intestinal biopsies, plasma and tissue concentrations of antiretroviral drugs by high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectroscopy, and plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6), lipoteichoic acid (LTA), soluble CD14 (sCD14) and zonulin-1 each measured by ELISA. Total cell-associated HIV DNA was measured in PBMC and rectal and duodenal mononuclear cells. Twenty-six HIV-infected patients completed the follow-up. In the duodenum, the quadruple regimen resulted in greater CD8+ T-cell density decline, greater normalization of mucosal CCR5+CD4+ T-cells and increase of the naïve/memory CD8+ T-cell ratio, and a greater decline of sCD14 levels and duodenal HIV DNA levels (P = 0.004 and P = 0.067, respectively), with no changes in HIV RNA in plasma or tissue. Maraviroc showed the highest drug distribution to the gut tissue, and duodenal concentrations correlated well with other T-cell markers in duodenum, i.e., the CD4/CD8 ratio, %CD4+ and %CD8+ HLA-DR+CD38+ T-cells. Maraviroc use elicited greater activation of the mucosal naïve CD8+ T-cell subset, ameliorated the distribution of the CD8+ T-cell maturational subsets and induced higher improvement of zonulin-1 levels. These data suggest that combined CCR5 and integrase inhibitor based combination therapy in ART treatment naïve patients might more effectively reconstitute duodenal immunity, decrease inflammatory markers and impact on HIV persistence by cell-dependent mechanisms, and show unique effects of MVC in duodenal immunity driven by higher drug tissue penetration and possibly by class-dependent effects

A systematic review of tests for lymph node status in primary endometrial cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The lymph node status of a patient is a key determinate in staging, prognosis and adjuvant treatment of endometrial cancer. Despite this, the potential additional morbidity associated with lymphadenectomy makes its role controversial. This study systematically reviews the accuracy literature on sentinel node biopsy; ultra sound scanning, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computer tomography (CT) for determining lymph node status in endometrial cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Relevant articles were identified form MEDLINE (1966–2006), EMBASE (1980–2006), MEDION, the Cochrane library, hand searching of reference lists from primary articles and reviews, conference abstracts and contact with experts in the field. The review included 18 relevant primary studies (693 women). Data was extracted for study characteristics and quality. Bivariate random-effect model meta-analysis was used to estimate diagnostic accuracy of the various index tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MRI (pooled positive LR 26.7, 95% CI 10.6 – 67.6 and negative LR 0.29 95% CI 0.17 – 0.49) and successful sentinel node biopsy (pooled positive LR 18.9 95% CI 6.7 – 53.2 and negative LR 0.22, 95% CI 0.1 – 0.48) were the most accurate tests. CT was not as accurate a test (pooled positive LR 3.8, 95% CI 2.0 – 7.3 and negative LR of 0.62, 95% CI 0.45 – 0.86. There was only one study that reported the use of ultrasound scanning.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MRI and sentinel node biopsy have shown similar diagnostic accuracy in confirming lymph node status among women with primary endometrial cancer than CT scanning, although the comparisons made are indirect and hence subject to bias. MRI should be used in preference, in light of the ASTEC trial, because of its non invasive nature.</p

Preferred reporting items for journal and conference abstracts of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies (PRISMA-DTA for Abstracts):checklist, explanation, and elaboration

For many users of the biomedical literature, abstracts may be the only source of information about a study. Hence, abstracts should allow readers to evaluate the objectives, key design features, and main results of the study. Several evaluations have shown deficiencies in the reporting of journal and conference abstracts across study designs and research fields, including systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy studies. Incomplete reporting compromises the value of research to key stakeholders. The authors of this article have developed a 12 item checklist of preferred reporting items for journal and conference abstracts of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies (PRISMA-DTA for Abstracts). This article presents the checklist, examples of complete reporting, and explanations for each item of PRISMA-DTA for Abstracts