Development and external validation of an acute kidney injury risk score for use in the general population

Background: Improving recognition of patients at increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the community may facilitate earlier detection and implementation of proactive prevention measures that mitigate the impact of AKI. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a practical risk score to predict the risk of AKI in either hospital or community settings using routinely collected data. Methods: Routinely collected linked datasets from Tayside, Scotland, were used to develop the risk score and datasets from Kent in the UK and Alberta in Canada were used to externally validate it. AKI was defined using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes serum creatinine–based criteria. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with occurrence of AKI within 1 year as the dependent variable. Model performance was determined by assessing discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration. Results: The risk score was developed in 273 450 patients from the Tayside region of Scotland and externally validated into two populations: 218 091 individuals from Kent, UK and 1 173 607 individuals from Alberta, Canada. Four variables were independent predictors for AKI by logistic regression: older age, lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes and heart failure. A risk score including these four variables had good predictive performance, with a C-statistic of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80–0.81] in the development cohort and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70–0.72) in the Kent, UK external validation cohort and 0.76 (95% CI 0.75–0.76) in the Canadian validation cohort. Conclusion We have devised and externally validated a simple risk score from routinely collected data that can aid both primary and secondary care physicians in identifying patients at high risk of AKI

Older people remain on blood pressure agents despite being hypotensive resulting in increased mortality and hospital admission

Background: the use of antihypertensive medication in older people in order to prevent cardiovascular events is well established. The use of such agents has been encouraged by incentive schemes in the United Kingdom including the Quality and Outcomes Framework. In addition, many guidelines recommend good blood pressure (BP) control in the elderly. However, in older people antihypertensives can cause adverse effects related to hypotension. Aim: the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of low BP and impact on outcomes, particularly in the presence of antihypertensive treatment, in a primary care population of older people. Design: a retrospective observational cohort study in people over the age of 70 years registered with primary care providers in Kent. Results: a total of 11,167 patients over 70 years old were analysed, 6,373 female (57%). Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was below 120 mmHg in 1,297 people (844 on antihypertensives), below 110 mmHg in 474 (313 on antihypertensives) and below 100 mmHg in 128 (89 on antihypertensives). Hypotension was independently associated with mortality, acute kidney injury and hospital admission. Conclusions: the results demonstrate that low SBP is associated with adverse events, it is possible that the pursuit of BP control at a population level may lead to over-treatment in certain groups of patients. This may result in an increased incidence of adverse events particularly in older people

Evaluation of mobile learning: Students' experiences in a new rural-based medical school

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mobile learning (ML) is an emerging educational method with success dependent on many factors including the ML device, physical infrastructure and user characteristics. At Gippsland Medical School (GMS), students are given a laptop at the commencement of their four-year degree. We evaluated the educational impact of the ML program from students' perspectives.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Questionnaires and individual interviews explored students' experiences of ML. All students were invited to complete questionnaires. Convenience sampling was used for interviews. Quantitative data was entered to SPSS 17.0 and descriptive statistics computed. Free text comments from questionnaires and transcriptions of interviews were thematically analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fifty students completed the questionnaire (response rate 88%). Six students participated in interviews. More than half the students owned a laptop prior to commencing studies, would recommend the laptop and took the laptop to GMS daily. Modal daily use of laptops was four hours. Most frequent use was for access to the internet and email while the most frequently used applications were Microsoft Word and PowerPoint. Students appreciated the laptops for several reasons. The reduced financial burden was valued. Students were largely satisfied with the laptop specifications. Design elements of teaching spaces limited functionality. Although students valued aspects of the virtual learning environment (VLE), they also made many suggestions for improvement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Students reported many educational benefits from school provision of laptops. In particular, the quick and easy access to electronic educational resources as and when they were needed. Improved design of physical facilities would enhance laptop use together with a more logical layout of the VLE, new computer-based resources and activities promoting interaction.</p

Evolutionary connectionism: algorithmic principles underlying the evolution of biological organisation in evo-devo, evo-eco and evolutionary transitions

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term “evolutionary connectionism” to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions

Measuring Risk Attitudes Controlling for Personality Traits*

Abstract: This study measures risk attitudes using two paid experiments: the Holt and Laury (2002) procedure and a variation of the game show Deal or No Deal. The participants also completed a series of personality questionnaires developed in the psychology literature including the risk domains of Weber, Blais, and Betz (2002). As in previous studies risk attitudes vary within subjects across elicitation methods. However, this variation can be explained by individual personality traits. Specifically, subjects behave as though the Holt and Laury task is an investment decision while the Deal or No Deal task is a gambling decision

The astrobiology primer: An outline of general knowledge - Version 1, 2006

Peer reviewe

Representation in the (Artificial) Immune System

Much of contemporary research in Artificial Immune Systems (AIS) has partitioned into either algorithmic machine learning and optimisation, or, modelling biologically plausible dynamical systems, with little overlap between. We propose that this dichotomy is somewhat to blame for the lack of significant advancement of the field in either direction and demonstrate how a simplistic interpretation of Perelson’s shape-space formalism may have largely contributed to this dichotomy. In this paper, we motivate and derive an alternative representational abstraction. To do so we consider the validity of shape-space from both the biological and machine learning perspectives. We then take steps towards formally integrating these perspectives into a coherent computational model of notions such as life-long learning, degeneracy, constructive representations and contextual recognition—rhetoric that has long inspired work in AIS, while remaining largely devoid of operational definition

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

A genome-wide association study of anorexia nervosa

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex and heritable eating disorder characterized by dangerously low body weight. Neither candidate gene studies nor an initial genome wide association study (GWAS) have yielded significant and replicated results. We performed a GWAS in 2,907 cases with AN from 14 countries (15 sites) and 14,860 ancestrally matched controls as part of the Genetic Consortium for AN (GCAN) and the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3). Individual association analyses were conducted in each stratum and meta-analyzed across all 15 discovery datasets. Seventy-six (72 independent) SNPs were taken forward for in silico (two datasets) or de novo (13 datasets) replication genotyping in 2,677 independent AN cases and 8,629 European ancestry controls along with 458 AN cases and 421 controls from Japan. The final global meta-analysis across discovery and replication datasets comprised 5,551 AN cases and 21,080 controls. AN subtype analyses (1,606 AN restricting; 1,445 AN binge-purge) were performed. No findings reached genome-wide significance. Two intronic variants were suggestively associated: rs9839776 (P=3.01×10−7) in SOX2OT and rs17030795 (P=5.84×10−6) in PPP3CA. Two additional signals were specific to Europeans: rs1523921 (P=5.76×10−6) between CUL3 and FAM124B and rs1886797 (P=8.05×10−6) near SPATA13. Comparing discovery to replication results, 76% of the effects were in the same direction, an observation highly unlikely to be due to chance (P= 4×10−6), strongly suggesting that true findings exist but that our sample, the largest yet reported, was underpowered for their detection. The accrual of large genotyped AN case-control samples should be an immediate priority for the field