Multivariate modelling of cognitive function and brain structural data

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Health state utility values for diabetic retinopathy: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background People with diabetic retinopathy tend to have lower levels of health-related quality of life than individuals with no retinopathy. Strategies for screening and treatment have been shown to be cost-effective. In order to reduce the bias in cost-effectiveness estimates, systematic reviews of health state utility values (HSUVs) are crucial for health technology assessment and the development of decision analytic models. A review and synthesis of HSUVs for the different stages of disease progression in diabetic retinopathy has not previously been conducted. Methods/Design We will conduct a systematic review of the available literature that reports HSUVs for people with diabetic retinopathy, in correspondence with current stage of disease progression and/or visual acuity. We will search Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination Database, and EconLit to identify relevant English-language articles. Data will subsequently be synthesized using linear mixed effects modeling meta-regression. Additionally, reported disease severity classifications will be mapped to a four-level grading scale for diabetic retinopathy. Discussion The systematic review and meta-analysis will provide important evidence for future model-based economic evaluations of technologies for diabetic retinopathy. The meta-regression will enable the estimation of utility values at different disease stages for patients with particular characteristics and will also highlight where the design of the study and HSUV instrument have influenced the reported utility values. We believe this protocol to be the first of its kind to be published

Detection of Visual Field Loss in Pituitary Disease: Peripheral Kinetic Versus Central Static.

Visual field assessment is an important clinical evaluation for eye disease and neurological injury. We evaluated Octopus semi-automated kinetic peripheral perimetry (SKP) and Humphrey static automated central perimetry for detection of neurological visual field loss in patients with pituitary disease. We carried out a prospective cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study comparing Humphrey central 30-2 SITA threshold programme with a screening protocol for SKP on Octopus perimetry. Humphrey 24-2 data were extracted from 30-2 results. Results were independently graded for presence/absence of field defect plus severity of defect. Fifty patients (100 eyes) were recruited (25 males and 25 females), with mean age of 52.4 years (SD = 15.7). Order of perimeter assessment (Humphrey/Octopus first) and order of eye tested (right/left first) were randomised. The 30-2 programme detected visual field loss in 85%, the 24-2 programme in 80%, and the Octopus combined kinetic/static strategy in 100% of eyes. Peripheral visual field loss was missed by central threshold assessment. Qualitative comparison of type of visual field defect demonstrated a match between Humphrey and Octopus results in 58%, with a match for severity of defect in 50%. Tests duration was 9.34 minutes (SD = 2.02) for Humphrey 30-2 versus 10.79 minutes (SD = 4.06) for Octopus perimetry. Octopus semi-automated kinetic perimetry was found to be superior to central static testing for detection of pituitary disease-related visual field loss. Where reliant on Humphrey central static perimetry, the 30-2 programme is recommended over the 24-2 programme. Where kinetic perimetry is available, this is preferable to central static programmes for increased detection of peripheral visual field loss

Evaluating Social and Spatial Inequalities of Large Scale Rapid Lateral Flow SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Testing in COVID-19 Management: An Observational Study of Liverpool, UK (November 2020 to January 2021)

Background: The aim of the study is to explore social and spatial inequalities in uptake and case-detection of rapid lateral flow SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests (LFTs) offered to people without symptoms of COVID-19.Methods: Linked pseudonymised records for asymptomatic residents in Liverpool (UK) who received a LFT for COVID-19 between 6th November 2020 to 31st January 2021 were accessed using the Combined Intelligence for Population Health Action (CIPHA) data resource. Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Besag, York, and Mollié models were used to estimate ecological associations for uptake and positivity of testing.Findings: 214 525 residents (43%) received a LFT identifying 5557 individuals as positive cases of COVID-19 (1.3%). Uptake was highest in November when there was military assistance. High uptake was observed again in the week preceding Christmas and was sustained into a national lockdown. Overall uptake and repeat testing were lower among males (e.g. 40% uptake over the whole period), Black Asian and other Minority Ethnic groups (e.g. 27% uptake for ‘Mixed’ ethnicity) and in the most deprived areas (e.g. 32% uptake in most deprived areas). These population groups were also more likely to have received positive tests for COVID-19. Models demonstrated that uptake and repeat testing were lower in areas of higher deprivation, areas located further from test sites and areas containing populations less confident in the using Internet technologies. Positive tests were spatially clustered in deprived areas.Interpretation: Large-scale voluntary asymptomatic community testing saw social, ethnic, and spatial inequalities in an ‘inverse care’ pattern, but with an added digital exclusion factor. COVID-19 testing and support to isolate need to be more accessible to the vulnerable communities most impacted by the pandemic, including non-digital means of access.Funding: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), National Institute for Health Research and Economic and Social Research Council).Conflict of Interest: None declared.Ethical Approval: The University of Liverpool has provided secondary data analysis as part of a national service evaluation with data collected by Department of Health and Social Care (Sponsor) for quality assurance of Innova lateral flow tests in a public health service intervention. There was no research commissioned by Department of Health and Social Care on this aspect of the Liverpool pilot of asymptomatic, community testing. As such, research ethics approval was not sought by the Department of Health and Social Care. Some aspects of the evaluation requiring fieldwork and primary data collection by the University of Liverpool were subject to ethical approval, which was confirmed prior to the commencement of activities by the University of Liverpool’s Research Ethics Committee. The provision of secondary data analysis and interpretation did not require further ethical approval. Cheshire & Merseyside Health & Care Partnership Combined Intelligence for Population HealthAction (CIPHA) Data Access Committee approved access to the data and analysis contained in the study. MAST/SMART was defined as ‘an emergency public health intervention during an extraordinary event’ which were subject to the legal and ethical provisions of a health protection activity and COVID-19 specifically. The secondary analysis of data provided in a health protection activity is not classified as research, and so does not require research ethics committee review (see http://www.hradecisiontools.org.uk/research/docs/DefiningResearchTable_Oct2017-1.pdf)

A systematic review of variables associated with sleep paralysis

Sleep paralysis is a relatively common but under-researched phenomenon. While the causes are unknown, a number of studies have investigated potential risk factors. In this article, we conducted a systematic review on the available literature regarding variables associated with both the frequency and intensity of sleep paralysis episodes. A total of 42 studies met the inclusion criteria. For each study, sample size, study site, sex and age of participants, sleep paralysis measure, and results of analyses looking at the relationship(s) between sleep paralysis and associated variable(s) were extracted. A large number of variables were associated with sleep paralysis and a number of themes emerged. These were: substance use, stress and trauma, genetic influences, physical illness, personality, intelligence, anomalous beliefs, sleep problems and disorders (both in terms of subjective sleep quality and objective sleep disruption), symptoms of psychiatric illness in non-clinical samples (particularly anxiety symptoms), and psychiatric disorders. Sleep paralysis appears to be particularly prevalent in post-traumatic stress disorder, and to a less degree, panic disorder. Limitations of the current literature, directions for future research, and implications for clinical practice are discussed

Safety, Efficacy and Cost Effectiveness of Individualised Screening for Diabetic Retinopathy: The ISDR Randomised Controlled Trial

Background: varying diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening intervals, informed by personal risk-levels, empowers people with diabetes (PWD), and offers reallocation of resources to high risk groups, while addressing the increasing prevalence of diabetes. Safety data on extending intervals is minimal. We evaluated the safety, efficacy and cost effectiveness of individualised risk-based variable-interval population screening compared to usual care, with design input from PWD.Methods: two-arm, parallel assignment, equivalence randomised controlled trial (minimum 2 year follow-up) in PWD aged ≥12 years registered with one English screening programme. Randomisation was 1:1 to individualised screening (6, 12 or 24 months for high, medium and low risk) determined by a risk calculation engine, using local demographic, screening and clinical data, or to annual screening (control). Primary outcome was attendance (safety). A secondary safety outcome was the development of sight threatening DR (STDR). Cost effectiveness was evaluated within a 2 year time horizon from NHS and societal perspectives.Findings: 4534 participants were randomised, 2265 to the individualised and 2269 to the control arm. Attendance rates at first follow-up were equivalent between individualised (1754/2097, 83·6%) and control (1883/2224, 84·7%) arms (difference -1·0, 95% CI -3·2 to 1·2). STDR detection rates were non-inferior: individualised 1·4%, control 1·7% (- 0·3, -1·1 to 0·5). Sensitivity analyses confirmed findings. Incremental QALYs/person were non-significant: EQ-5D-5L 0·035 (CI -0·04, 0·13), HUI3 0·009 (CI -0·09, 0·10). Incremental cost savings were £21·31 (CI 15·24, 26·79)/person for the NHS and £28·87 (CI 21·08, 35·78) including societal costs. 43·2% fewer screening appointments were required in the individualised arm.Interpretation: stakeholders involved in diabetes care can be reassured by this largest ophthalmic RCT in DR screening to date that extended and individualised risk-based intervals can be safely and cost effectively introduced in established screening programmes

COVID-19 risk-mitigation in reopening mass events: population-based observational study for the UK Events Research Programme in Liverpool City Region

OBJECTIVES: To understand severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission risks, perceived risks and the feasibility of risk mitigations from experimental mass cultural events before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions were lifted. DESIGN: Prospective, population-wide observational study. SETTING: Four events (two nightclubs, an outdoor music festival and a business conference) open to Liverpool City Region UK residents, requiring a negative lateral flow test (LFT) within the 36 h before the event, but not requiring social distancing or face-coverings. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 12,256 individuals attending one or more events between 28 April and 2 May 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SARS-CoV-2 infections detected using audience self-swabbed (5-7 days post-event) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, with viral genomic analysis of cases, plus linked National Health Service COVID-19 testing data. Audience experiences were gathered via questionnaires, focus groups and social media. Indoor CO2 concentrations were monitored. RESULTS: A total of 12 PCR-positive cases (likely 4 index, 8 primary or secondary), 10 from the nightclubs. Two further cases had positive LFTs but no PCR. A total of 11,896 (97.1%) participants with scanned tickets were matched to a negative pre-event LFT: 4972 (40.6%) returned a PCR within a week. CO2 concentrations showed areas for improving ventilation at the nightclubs. Population infection rates were low, yet with a concurrent outbreak of >50 linked cases around a local swimming pool without equivalent risk mitigations. Audience anxiety was low and enjoyment high. CONCLUSIONS: We observed minor SARS-CoV-2 transmission and low perceived risks around events when prevalence was low and risk mitigations prominent. Partnership between audiences, event organisers and public health services, supported by information systems with real-time linked data, can improve health security for mass cultural events