Impact of deoxygenation and warming on global marine species in the 21st century

Ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen shape marine habitats in interplay with species&rsquo; physiological characteristics. Therefore, the observed and projected warming and deoxygenation in the 21st century of the world&rsquo;s oceans may strongly affect species&rsquo; habitats. Here, we implement an extended version of the Aerobic Growth Index (AGI), which quantifies whether a viable population of a species can be sustained in a particular location. We assess the impact of projected deoxygenation and warming on the contemporary habitat of 47 representative marine species covering the epipelagic, mesopelagic/bathypelagic, and demersal realms. AGI is calculated for these species for the historical period and into the 21st century using bias-corrected environmental data from six comprehensive Earth System Models. While habitat viability decreases nearly everywhere with global warming, impact of this decrease is strongly species-dependent. Most species lose less than 5 % of their contemporary habitat volume over the 21st century even at 3 &deg;C of global warming relative to preindustrial, although some individual species are projected to incur losses 2&ndash;3 times greater than that. We find that the contemporary spatiotemporal variability of O2 and temperature (and hence AGI) provides a quantifiable measure of a species&rsquo; vulnerability to change. Species&rsquo; vulnerability is the most important indicator for large (&gt;5 %) potential habitat losses &ndash; not relative or absolute changes in habitat viability (i.e., AGIrel or &Delta;AGI), temperature or O2. Loss of contemporary habitat is for most epipelagic species driven by warming of ocean water and is therefore expanded with increased levels of global warming. In the mesopelagic/bathypelagic and demersal realms habitat loss is also affected by pO2 decrease for some species. Our analysis is constrained by the uncertainties involved in species-specific critical thresholds, which we quantify, by data limitations on 3D species distributions as well as by high uncertainty in model O2 projections in equatorial regions. Focus on these topics in future research will strengthen our confidence in assessing climate-change driven losses of contemporary habitat across the global oceans.</p

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive

Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus

Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics

Preparing ocean governance for species on the move

Policy must anticipate conflict over geographic shifts</jats:p

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Human Nerve Growth Factor Protects Common Marmosets against Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis by Switching the Balance of T Helper Cell Type 1 and 2 Cytokines within the Central Nervous System

Multiple sclerosis is a demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system (CNS), in which an immune attack directed against myelin constituents causes myelin destruction and death of oligodendrocytes, the myelin-producing cells. Here, the efficacy of nerve growth factor (NGF), a growth factor for neurons and oligodendrocytes, in promoting myelin repair was evaluated using the demyelinating model of experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE) in the common marmoset. Surprisingly, we found that NGF delayed the onset of clinical EAE and, pathologically, prevented the full development of EAE lesions. We demonstrate by immunocytochemistry that NGF exerts its antiinflammatory effect by downregulating the production of interferon γ by T cells infiltrating the CNS, and upregulating the production of interleukin 10 by glial cells in both inflammatory lesions of EAE and normal-appearing CNS white matter. Thus, NGF, currently under investigation in human clinical trials as a neuronal trophic factor, may be an attractive candidate for therapy of autoimmune demyelinating disorders

Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions

Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries

The availability and production of food is threatened by climate change, with subsequent implications for food security and the global economy. In this study we assessed how the impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries interact under a range of scenarios. The 'business-as-usual' scenario would lead to ~90% of the global population, particularly in least developed countries, being exposed to declines in the productivity of both sectors, and < 3% of the world would experience productivity gains in both sectors. With strong mitigation equivalent to meeting Paris Agreement commitments, most countries including both the most vulnerable and the largest carbon emitters would show net gains in both agricultural and fisheries sectors