62 research outputs found

    Semi-parametric modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Orange County, California using tests, cases, deaths, and seroprevalence data

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    Mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and frequently estimating model parameters using streaming surveillance data are important components of the pandemic response toolbox. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even impossible, because surveillance data are noisy and not informative about all aspects of the mechanistic model. To partially overcome this obstacle, we propose a Bayesian modeling framework that integrates multiple surveillance data streams. Our model uses both SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics test and mortality time series to estimate our model parameters, while also explicitly integrating seroprevalence data from cross-sectional studies. Importantly, our data generating model for incidence data takes into account changes in the total number of tests performed. We model transmission rate, infection-to-fatality ratio, and a parameter controlling a functional relationship between the true case incidence and the fraction of positive tests as time-varying quantities and estimate changes of these parameters nonparameterically. We apply our Bayesian data integration method to COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Orange County, California between March, 2020 and March, 2021 and find that 33-62% of the Orange County residents experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection by the end of February, 2021. Despite this high number of infections, our results show that the abrupt end of the winter surge in January, 2021, was due to both behavioral changes and a high level of accumulated natural immunity.Comment: 37 pages, 16 pages of main text, including 5 figures, 1 tabl

    Longitudinal peripheral blood transcriptional analysis of a patient with severe Ebola virus disease.

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    The 2013-2015 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone was unprecedented in the number of documented cases, but there have been few published reports on immune responses in clinical cases and their relationships with the course of illness and severity of Ebola virus disease. Symptoms of Ebola virus disease can include severe headache, myalgia, asthenia, fever, fatigue, diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and hemorrhage. Although experimental treatments are in development, there are no current U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines or therapies. We report a detailed study of host gene expression as measured by microarray in daily peripheral blood samples collected from a patient with severe Ebola virus disease. This individual was provided with supportive care without experimental therapies at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center from before onset of critical illness to recovery. Pearson analysis of daily gene expression signatures revealed marked gene expression changes in peripheral blood leukocytes that correlated with changes in serum and peripheral blood leukocytes, viral load, antibody responses, coagulopathy, multiple organ dysfunction, and then recovery. This study revealed marked shifts in immune and antiviral responses that preceded changes in medical condition, indicating that clearance of replicating Ebola virus from peripheral blood leukocytes is likely important for systemic viral clearance

    The effects of frequent nocturnal home hemodialysis: the Frequent Hemodialysis Network Nocturnal Trial

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    Prior small studies have shown multiple benefits of frequent nocturnal hemodialysis compared to conventional three times per week treatments. To study this further, we randomized 87 patients to three times per week conventional hemodialysis or to nocturnal hemodialysis six times per week, all with single-use high-flux dialyzers. The 45 patients in the frequent nocturnal arm had a 1.82-fold higher mean weekly stdKt/Vurea, a 1.74-fold higher average number of treatments per week, and a 2.45-fold higher average weekly treatment time than the 42 patients in the conventional arm. We did not find a significant effect of nocturnal hemodialysis for either of the two coprimary outcomes (death or left ventricular mass (measured by MRI) with a hazard ratio of 0.68, or of death or RAND Physical Health Composite with a hazard ratio of 0.91). Possible explanations for the left ventricular mass result include limited sample size and patient characteristics. Secondary outcomes included cognitive performance, self-reported depression, laboratory markers of nutrition, mineral metabolism and anemia, blood pressure and rates of hospitalization, and vascular access interventions. Patients in the nocturnal arm had improved control of hyperphosphatemia and hypertension, but no significant benefit among the other main secondary outcomes. There was a trend for increased vascular access events in the nocturnal arm. Thus, we were unable to demonstrate a definitive benefit of more frequent nocturnal hemodialysis for either coprimary outcome

    Prevalence and Mechanisms of Mucus Accumulation in COVID-19 Lung Disease

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    Rationale: The incidence and sites of mucus accumulation, and molecular regulation of mucin gene expression, in COVID-19 lung disease have not been reported. Objectives: Characterize incidence of mucus accumulation and the mechanisms mediating mucin hypersecretion in COVID-19 lung disease. Methods: Airway mucus and mucins were evaluated in COVID-19 autopsy lungs by AB-PAS and immunohistochemical staining, RNA in situ hybridization, and spatial transcriptional profiling. SARS-CoV-2-infected human bronchial epithelial (HBE) cultures were utilized to investigate mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2-induced mucin expression and synthesis and test candidate countermeasures. Measurements and Main Results: MUC5B and variably MUC5AC RNA levels were increased throughout all airway regions of COVID-19 autopsy lungs, notably in the sub-acute/chronic disease phase following SARS-CoV-2 clearance. In the distal lung, MUC5B-dominated mucus plugging was observed in 90% of COVID-19 subjects in both morphologically identified bronchioles and microcysts, and MUC5B accumulated in damaged alveolar spaces. SARS-CoV-2-infected HBE cultures exhibited peak titers 3 days post inoculation, whereas induction of MUC5B/MUC5AC peaked 7-14 days post inoculation. SARS-CoV-2 infection of HBE cultures induced expression of EGFR ligands and inflammatory cytokines (e.g., IL-1α/β) associated with mucin gene regulation. Inhibiting EGFR/IL-1R pathways, or dexamethasone administration, reduced SARS-CoV-2-induced mucin expression. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a high prevalence of distal airspace mucus accumulation and increased MUC5B expression in COVID-19 autopsy lungs. HBE culture studies identified roles for EGFR and IL-1R signaling in mucin gene regulation post SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data suggest that time-sensitive mucolytic agents, specific pathway inhibitors, or corticosteroid administration may be therapeutic for COVID-19 lung disease. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

    Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

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    BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

    New filovirus disease classification and nomenclature.

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    The recent large outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Western Africa resulted in greatly increased accumulation of human genotypic, phenotypic and clinical data, and improved our understanding of the spectrum of clinical manifestations. As a result, the WHO disease classification of EVD underwent major revision

    Ebola virus disease and critical illness

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