Death rates from malaria epidemics, Burundi and Ethiopia.

Death rates exceeded emergency thresholds at 4 sites during epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Burundi (2000-2001) and in Ethiopia (2003-2004). Deaths likely from malaria ranged from 1,000 to 8,900, depending on site, and accounted for 52% to 78% of total deaths. Earlier detection of malaria and better case management are needed

Treatment of tuberculosis in a region with high drug resistance: Outcomes, drug resistance amplification and re-infection

Introduction: Emerging antituberculosis drug resistance is a serious threat for tuberculosis (TB) control, especially in Eastern European countries. Methods: We combined drug susceptibility results and molecular strain typing data with treatment outcome reports to assess the influence of drug resistance on TB treatment outcomes in a prospective cohort of patients from Abkhazia (Georgia). Patients received individualized treatment regimens based on drug susceptibility testing (DST) results. Definitions for antituberculosis drug resistance and treatment outcomes were in line with current WHO recommendations. First and second line DST, and molecular typing were performed in a supranational laboratory for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains from consecutive sputum smear-positive TB patients at baseline and during treatment. Results: At baseline, MTB strains were fully drug-susceptible in 189/326 (58.0%) of patients. Resistance to at least H or R (PDR-TB) and multidrug-resistance (MDR-TB) were found in 69/326 (21.2%) and 68/326 (20.9%) of strains, respectively. Three MDR-TB strains were also extensively resistant (XDR-TB). During treatment, 3/189 (1.6%) fully susceptible patients at baseline were re-infected with a MDR-TB strain and 2/58 (3.4%) PDR-TB patients became MDR-TB due to resistance amplification. 5/ 47 (10.6%) MDR- patients became XDR-TB during treatment. Treatment success was observed in 161/189 (85.2%), 54/69 (78.3%) and 22/68 (32.3%) of patients with fully drug susceptible, PDR- and MDR-TB, respectively. Development of ofloxacin resistance was significantly associated with a negative treatment outcome. Conclusion: In Abkhazia, a region with high prevalence of drug resistant TB, the use of individualized MDR-TB treatment regimens resulted in poor treatment outcomes and XDR-TB amplification. Nosocomial transmission of MDR-TB emphasizes the importance of infection control in hospitals

Incorporating scale dependence in disease burden estimates:the case of human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda

The WHO has established the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as a metric for measuring the burden of human disease and injury globally. However, most DALY estimates have been calculated as national totals. We mapped spatial variation in the burden of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda for the years 2000-2009. This represents the first geographically delimited estimation of HAT disease burden at the sub-country scale.Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) totals for HAT were estimated based on modelled age and mortality distributions, mapped using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, and summarised by parish and district. While the national total burden of HAT is low relative to other conditions, high-impact districts in Uganda had DALY rates comparable to the national burden rates for major infectious diseases. The calculated average national DALY rate for 2000-2009 was 486.3 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, whereas three districts afflicted by rhodesiense HAT in southeastern Uganda had burden rates above 5000 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, comparable to national GBD 2004 average burden rates for malaria and HIV/AIDS.These results provide updated and improved estimates of HAT burden across Uganda, taking into account sensitivity to under-reporting. Our results highlight the critical importance of spatial scale in disease burden analyses. National aggregations of disease burden have resulted in an implied bias against highly focal diseases for which geographically targeted interventions may be feasible and cost-effective. This has significant implications for the use of DALY estimates to prioritize disease interventions and inform cost-benefit analyses

Accuracy of five algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda

Myocardial Scar on Surface ECG: Selvester Score, but Not Fragmentation, Predicts Response to CRT

Purpose. Myocardial scar is directly related to the response to CRT after implantation. The extent of myocardial scar can be detected not only by cardiac magnetic resonance but also by two electrocardiographic scores: fragmented QRS (fQRS) and Selvester score (SSc). The aim of our study is to compare the role of baseline SSc and fQRS in predicting response to CRT in a cohort of heart failure patients with true left bundle branch block (LBBB). As a secondary endpoint, we assessed the association of both scores with overall and cardiac mortality, heart failure hospitalizations, ventricular arrhythmias requiring ICD intervention, and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Methods. We evaluated fQRS and SSc of 178 consecutive HF patients with severe systolic dysfunction (LVEF ≤ 35%), NYHA class II-III despite optimal medical treatment, and true-LBBB. Response to CRT was defined as the improvement of LVEF of at least 10% or as the reduction of LVESV of at least 15% at a 6-month follow-up. Each endpoint was related to fQRS and SSc. Results. SSc ≥7 was significantly associated with the absence of echocardiographic response to CRT (OR: 0.327; 95% C.I. 0.155-0.689; p=0.003), while the presence of fQRS at baseline ECG was not (OR: 1.133; 95% C.I. 0.539-2.381; p=0.742). No correlation was found between SSc and overall mortality, cardiac death, ventricular arrhythmias, hospitalizations due to heart failure, or for MACE. Similar results were observed between fQRS and all secondary endpoints. Conclusion. In HF patients with true-LBBB and LVEF ≤35% eligible for CRT, myocardial scar assessed by calculating the SSc on preimplant ECG is an independent predictor of nonresponse after multiple adjustments. Neither SSc nor fQRS is associated with overall and cardiac death, ventricular arrhythmias, or hospitalization for heart failure at a 24-month follow-up

Do media play a role in promoting vocational education and training? The case of MasterChef

It is often suggested that vocational education and training (VET) could be key to cut youth unemployment. VET programmes may provide young people with specific professional qualifications that enable them to successfully compete in the labour market. However, despite the great emphasis placed by governments and other institutions on these programmes, VET appears to be far from reaching its full potential in many countries. One barrier preventing students from pursuing this type of education is the stigma associated with VET. This paper looks at the role of media in changing the negative social perceptions of VET. Specifically, it examines whether in Italy the growing popularity of the cooking television reality show MasterChef has led to an increase in the number of students willing to study for a vocational qualification in hospitality and catering. The empirical results show that an increase in the number of MasterChef’s viewers is associated with a higher proportion of students willing to attend hospitality and catering schools. This finding suggests that popular television cooking series like MasterChef may be a vehicle through which the image and the attractiveness of VET can be improved

Detection of infectious disease outbreaks in twenty-two fragile states, 2000-2010: a systematic review.

Fragile states are home to a sixth of the world's population, and their populations are particularly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks. Timely surveillance and control are essential to minimise the impact of these outbreaks, but little evidence is published about the effectiveness of existing surveillance systems. We did a systematic review of the circumstances (mode) of detection of outbreaks occurring in 22 fragile states in the decade 2000-2010 (i.e. all states consistently meeting fragility criteria during the timeframe of the review), as well as time lags from onset to detection of these outbreaks, and from detection to further events in their timeline. The aim of this review was to enhance the evidence base for implementing infectious disease surveillance in these complex, resource-constrained settings, and to assess the relative importance of different routes whereby outbreak detection occurs.We identified 61 reports concerning 38 outbreaks. Twenty of these were detected by existing surveillance systems, but 10 detections occurred following formal notifications by participating health facilities rather than data analysis. A further 15 outbreaks were detected by informal notifications, including rumours.There were long delays from onset to detection (median 29 days) and from detection to further events (investigation, confirmation, declaration, control). Existing surveillance systems yielded the shortest detection delays when linked to reduced barriers to health care and frequent analysis and reporting of incidence data.Epidemic surveillance and control appear to be insufficiently timely in fragile states, and need to be strengthened. Greater reliance on formal and informal notifications is warranted. Outbreak reports should be more standardised and enable monitoring of surveillance systems' effectiveness

Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background More than 10 years have elapsed since human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of the population-level impact of vaccinating girls and women against human papillomavirus on HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+)to summarise the most recent evidence about the effectiveness of HPV vaccines in real-world settings and to quantify the impact of multiple age-cohort vaccination.Methods In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, we used the same search strategy as in our previous paper. We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies published between Feb 1, 2014, and Oct 11, 2018. Studies were eligible if they compared the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of at least one HPV-related endpoint (genital HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, or histologically confirmed CIN2+) between pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods among the general population and if they used the same population sources and recruitment methods before and after vaccination. Our primary assessment was the relative risk (RR) comparing the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of HPV-related endpoints between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. We stratified all analyses by sex, age, and years since introduction of HPV vaccination. We used random-effects models to estimate pooled relative risks.Findings We identified 1702 potentially eligible articles for this systematic review and meta-analysis, and included 65 articles in 14 high-income countries: 23 for HPV infection, 29 for anogenital warts, and 13 for CIN2+.After 5\u20138 years of vaccination, the prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 decreased significantly by 83% (RR 0\ub717, 95% CI 0\ub711\u20130\ub725) among girls aged 13\u201319 years, and decreased significantly by 66% (RR 0\ub734, 95% CI 0\ub723\u20130\ub749) among women aged 20\u201324 years. The prevalence of HPV 31, 33, and 45 decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0\ub733\u20130\ub766) among girls aged 13\u201319 years. Anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 67% (RR 0\ub733, 95% CI 0\ub724\u20130\ub746) among girls aged 15\u201319 years, decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0.36\u20130.60) among women aged 20\u201324 years, and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub753\u20130\ub789) among women aged 25\u201329 years. Among boys aged 15\u201319 years anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 48% (RR 0\ub752, 95% CI 0\ub737\u20130\ub775) and among men aged 20\u201324 years they decreased significantly by 32% (RR 0\ub768, 95% CI 0\ub747\u20130\ub798). After 5\u20139 years of vaccination, CIN2+ decreased significantly by 51% (RR 0\ub749, 95% CI 0\ub742\u20130\ub758) among screened girls aged 15\u201319 years and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub757\u20130\ub784) among women aged 20\u201324 years.Interpretation This updated systematic review and meta-analysis includes data from 60 million individuals and up to 8 years of post-vaccination follow-up. Our results show compelling evidence of the substantial impact of HPV vaccination programmes on HPV infections and CIN2+ among girls and women, and on anogenital warts diagnoses among girls, women, boys, and men. Additionally, programmes with multi-cohort vaccination and high vaccination coverage had a greater direct impact and herd effects

Stage progression and neurological symptoms in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense sleeping sickness: role of the CNS inflammatory response

Background: Human African trypanosomiasis progresses from an early (hemolymphatic) stage, through CNS invasion to the late (meningoencephalitic) stage. In experimental infections disease progression is associated with neuroinflammatory responses and neurological symptoms, but this concept requires evaluation in African trypanosomiasis patients, where correct diagnosis of the disease stage is of critical therapeutic importance. Methodology/Principal Findings: This was a retrospective study on a cohort of 115 T.b.rhodesiense HAT patients recruited in Eastern Uganda. Paired plasma and CSF samples allowed the measurement of peripheral and CNS immunoglobulin and of CSF cytokine synthesis. Cytokine and immunoglobulin expression were evaluated in relation to disease duration, stage progression and neurological symptoms. Neurological symptoms were not related to stage progression (with the exception of moderate coma). Increases in CNS immunoglobulin, IL-10 and TNF-α synthesis were associated with stage progression and were mirrored by a reduction in TGF-β levels in the CSF. There were no significant associations between CNS immunoglobulin and cytokine production and neurological signs of disease with the exception of moderate coma cases. Within the study group we identified diagnostically early stage cases with no CSF pleocytosis but intrathecal immunoglobulin synthesis and diagnostically late stage cases with marginal CSF pleocytosis and no detectable trypanosomes in the CSF. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that there is not a direct linkage between stage progression, neurological signs of infection and neuroinflammatory responses in rhodesiense HAT. Neurological signs are observed in both early and late stages, and while intrathecal immunoglobulin synthesis is associated with neurological signs, these are also observed in cases lacking a CNS inflammatory response. While there is an increase in inflammatory cytokine production with stage progression, this is paralleled by increases in CSF IL-10. As stage diagnostics, the CSF immunoglobulins and cytokines studied do not have sufficient sensitivity to be of clinical value