Dating Business Cycle Turning Points

This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An intuitive, graphical derivation of these algorithms is presented along with a description of how they can be implemented making very minimal distributional assumptions. We also provide the intuition and detailed description of these algorithms for both simple parametric univariate inference as well as latent-variable multiple-indicator inference using a state-space Markov-switching approach. We illustrate the promise of this approach by reconstructing the inferences that would have been generated if parameters had to be estimated and inferences drawn based on data as they were originally released at each historical date. Waiting until one extra quarter of GDP growth is reported or one extra month of the monthly indicators released before making a call of a business cycle turning point helps reduce the risk of misclassification. We introduce two new measures for dating business cycle turning points, which we call the %u201Cquarterly real-time GDP-based recession probability index%u201D and the %u201Cmonthly real-time multiple-indicator recession probability index%u201D that incorporate these principles. Both indexes perform quite well in simulation with real-time data bases. We also discuss some of the potential complicating factors one might want to consider for such an analysis, such as the reduced volatility of output growth rates since 1984 and the changing cyclical behavior of employment. Although such refinements can improve the inference, we nevertheless find that the simpler specifications perform very well historically and may be more robust for recognizing future business cycle turning points of unknown character.

Isotropization of Bianchi-Type Cosmological Solutions in Brans-Dicke Theory

The cosmic, general analitic solutions of the Brans--Dicke Theory for the flat space of homogeneous and isotropic models containing perfect, barotropic, fluids are seen to belong to a wider class of solutions --which includes cosmological models with the open and the closed spaces of the Friedmann--Robertson--Walker metric, as well as solutions for models with homogeneous but anisotropic spaces corresponding to the Bianchi--Type metric clasification-- when all these solutions are expressed in terms of reduced variables. The existence of such a class lies in the fact that the scalar field, $\phi$, times a function of the mean scale factor or ``volume element'', $a^3 = a_1 a_2 a_3$, which depends on time and on the barotropic index of the equation of state used, can be written as a function of a ``cosmic time'' reduced in terms of another function of the mean scale factor depending itself again on the barotropic index but independent of the metrics here employed. This reduction procedure permites one to analyze if explicitly given anisotropic cosmological solutions ``isotropize'' in the course of their time evolution. For if so can happen, it could be claimed that there exists a subclass of solutions that is stable under anisotropic perturbations.Comment: 15 pages, Late

Roles of resonance and dark irradiance for infrared photorefractive self-focusing and solitons in bi-polar InP:Fe

This paper shows experimental evidence of photorefractive steady state self-focusing in InP:Fe for a wide range of intensities, at both 1.06 and 1.55$\mu$m. To explain those results, it is shown that despite the bi-polar nature of InP:Fe where one photocarrier and one thermal carrier are to be considered, the long standing one photocarrier model for photorefractive solitons can be usefully applied. The relationship between the dark irradiance stemming out of this model and the known resonance intensity is then discussed

Temporal behavior of two-wave-mixing in photorefractive InP:Fe versus temperature

The temporal response of two-wave-mixing in photorefractive InP:Fe under a dc electric field at different temperatures has been studied. In particular, the temperature dependence of the characteristic time constant has been studied both theoretically and experimentally, showing a strongly decreasing time constant with increasing temperature

Bianchi type-II cosmological model: some remarks

Within the framework of Bianchi type-II (BII) cosmological model the behavior of matter distribution has been considered. It is shown that the non-zero off-diagonal component of Einstein tensor implies some severe restriction on the choice of matter distribution. In particular for a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type-II (LRS BII) space-time it is proved that the matter distribution should be strictly isotropic if the corresponding matter field possesses only non-zero diagonal components of the energy-momentum tensor.Comment: 3 page

Isotropization of Bianchi type models and a new FRW solution in Brans-Dicke theory

Using scaled variables we are able to integrate an equation valid for isotropic and anisotropic Bianchi type I, V, IX models in Brans-Dicke (BD) theory. We analyze known and new solutions for these models in relation with the possibility that anisotropic models asymptotically isotropize, and/or possess inflationary properties. In particular, a new solution of curve ($k\neq0$) Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) cosmologies in Brans-Dicke theory is analyzed.Comment: 15 pages, 4 postscript figures, to appear in Gen. Rel. Grav., special issue dedicated in honour of Prof. H. Dehne

Homogeneous Conformal String Backgrounds

We present exact solutions characterised by Bianchi-type I,II,III,V,VI four-dimensional metric, space-independent dilaton, and vanishing torsion background, for the low energy string effective action with zero central charge deficit. We show that, in such a context, curvature singularities cannot be avoided, except for the trivial case of flat spacetime and constant dilaton. We also provide a further example of the failure of the standard prescription for connecting conformal string backgrounds through duality transformations associated to non-semisimple, non-Abelian isometry group.Comment: 20 pages, latex, no figures, to appear in Class. Q. Gra

Leaf litter breakdown budgets in streams of various trophic status: effects of dissolved inorganic nutrients on microorganisms and invertebrates

1. We investigated the effect of trophic status on the organic matter budget in freshwater ecosystems. During leaf litter breakdown, the relative contribution of the functional groups and the quantity/quality of organic matter available to higher trophic levels are expected to be modified by the anthropogenic release of nutrients. 2. Carbon budgets were established during the breakdown of alder leaves enclosed in coarse mesh bags and submerged in six streams: two oligotrophic, one mesotrophic, two eutrophic and one hypertrophic streams. Nitrate concentrations were 4.5–6.7 mg L−1 and the trophic status of each stream was defined by the soluble reactive phosphorus concentration ranging from 3.4 (oligotrophic) to 89 μg L−1 (hypertrophic). An ammonium gradient paralleled the phosphate gradient with mean concentrations ranging from 1.4 to 560 μg L−1 NH4-N. The corresponding unionised ammonia concentrations ranged from 0.08 to 19 μg L−1 NH3-N over the six streams. 3. The dominant shredder taxa were different in the oligo-, meso- and eutrophic streams. No shredders were observed in the hypertrophic stream. These changes may be accounted for by the gradual increase in the concentration of ammonia over the six streams. The shredder biomass dramatically decreased in eu- and hypertrophic streams compared with oligo- and mesotrophic. 4. Fungal biomass increased threefold from the most oligotrophic to the less eutrophic stream and decreased in the most eutrophic and the hypertrophic. Bacterial biomass increased twofold from the most oligotrophic to the hypertrophic stream. Along the trophic gradient, the microbial CO2 production followed that of microbial biomass whereas the microbial fine particulate organic matter and net dissolved organic carbon (DOC) did not consistently vary. These results indicate that the microorganisms utilised the substrate and the DOC differently in streams of various trophic statuses. 5. In streams receiving various anthropogenic inputs, the relative contribution of the functional groups to leaf mass loss varied extensively as a result of stimulation and the deleterious effects of dissolved inorganic compounds. The quality/quantity of the organic matter produced by microorganisms slightly varied, as they use DOC from stream water instead of the substrate they decompose in streams of higher trophic status