Understanding between-cluster variation in prevalence, and limits for how much variation is plausible

In clinical trials and observational studies of clustered binary data, understanding between-cluster variation is essential: in sample size and power calculations of cluster randomised trials, for example, the intra-cluster correlation coefficient is often specified. However, quantifications of between-cluster variation can be unintuitive, and an intra-cluster correlation coefficient as low as 0.04 may correspond to surprisingly large between-cluster differences. We suggest that understanding is improved through visualising the implied distribution of true cluster prevalences – possibly by assuming they follow a beta distribution – or by calculating their standard deviation, which is more readily interpretable than the intra-cluster correlation coefficient. Even so, the bounded nature of binary data complicates the interpretation of variances as primary measures of uncertainty, and entropy offers an attractive alternative. Appealing to maximum entropy theory, we propose the following rule of thumb: that plausible intra-cluster correlation coefficients and standard deviations of true cluster prevalences are both bounded above by the overall prevalence, its complement, and one third. We also provide corresponding bounds for the coefficient of variation, and for a different standard deviation and intra-cluster correlation defined on the log odds scale. Using previously published data, we observe the quantities defined on the log odds scale to be more transportable between studies with different outcomes with different prevalences than the intra-cluster correlation and coefficient of variation. The latter increase and decrease, respectively, as prevalence increases from 0% to 50%, and the same is true for our bounds. Our work will help clinical trialists better understand between-cluster variation and avoid specifying implausibly high values for the intra-cluster correlation in sample size and power calculations

Long-Term Stability of an Area-Reversible Atom-Interferometer Sagnac Gyroscope

We report on a study of the long-term stability and absolute accuracy of an atom interferometer gyroscope. This study included the implementation of an electro-optical technique to reverse the vector area of the interferometer for reduced systematics and a careful study of systematic phase shifts. Our data strongly suggests that drifts less than 96 $\mu$deg/hr are possible after empirically removing shifts due to measured changes in temperature, laser intensity, and several other experimental parameters.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR

Analysis of the atmospheric distribution, sources, and sinks of oxygenated volatile organic chemicals based on measurements over the Pacific during TRACE-P

Airborne measurements of a large number of oxygenated volatile organic chemicals (OVOC) were carried out in the Pacific troposphere (0.1 - 12 km) in winter/spring of 2001 (24 February to 10 April). Specifically, these measurements included acetone (CH3COCHA3), methylethyl ketone (CH3COC2H5, MEK), methanol (CH3OH), ethanol (C2H5OH), acetaldehyde (CH3CHO), propionaldehyde C2H 5CHO), peroxyacylnitrates (PANs) (CnH 2n+1COO2NO2), and organic nitrates (CnH2n+1ONO2). Complementary measurements of formaldehyde (HCHO), methyl hydroperoxide (CH 3OOH), and selected tracers were also available. OVOC were abundant in the clean troposphere and were greatly enhanced in the outflow regions from Asia. Background mixing ratios were typically highest in the lower troposphere and declined toward the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere. Their total abundance (ΣOVOC) was nearly twice that of nonmethane hydrocarbons (Σ C2-C8 NMHC. Throughout the troposphere, the OH reactivity of OVOC is comparable to that of methane and far exceeds that of NMHC. A comparison of these data with western Pacific observations collected some 7 years earlier (February-March 1994) did not reveal significant differences. Mixing ratios of OVOC were strongly correlated with each other as well as with tracers of fossil and biomass/biofuel combustion. Analysis of the relative enhancement of selected OVOC with respect to CH 3Cl and CO in 12 plumes originating from fires and sampled in the free troposphere (3-11 km) is used to assess their primary and secondary emissions from biomass combustion. The composition of these plumes also indicates a large shift of reactive nitrogen into the PAN reservoir thereby limiting ozone formation. A three-dimensional global model that uses state of the art chemistry and source information is used to compare measured and simulated mixing ratios of selected OVOC. While there is reasonable agreement in many cases, measured aldehyde concentrations are significantly larger than predicted. At their observed levels, acetaldehyde mixing ratios are shown to be an important source of HCHO (and HOx) and PAN in the troposphere. On the basis of presently known chemistry, measured mixing ratios of aldehydes and PANs are mutually incompatible. We provide rough estimates of the global sources of several OVOC and conclude that collectively these are extremely large (150-500 Tg C yr-1) but remain poorly quantified. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union

Salamander Abundance along Road Edges and within Abandoned Logging Roads in Appalachian Forests

Roads may be one of the most common disturbances in otherwise continuous forested habitat in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Despite their obvious presence on the landscape, there is limited data on the ecological effects along a road edge or the size of the “road-effect zone.” We sampled salamanders at current and abandoned road sites within the Nantahala National Forest, North Carolina (U.S.A.) to determine the road-effect zone for an assemblage of woodland salamanders. Salamander abundance near the road was reduced significantly, and salamanders along the edges were predominantly large individuals. These results indicate that the road-effect zone for these salamanders extended 35 m on either side of the relatively narrow, low-use forest roads along which we sampled. Furthermore, salamander abundance was significantly lower on old, abandoned logging roads compared with the adjacent upslope sites. These results indicate that forest roads and abandoned logging roads have negative effects on forest-dependent species such as plethodontid salamanders. Our results may apply to other protected forests in the southern Appalachians and may exemplify a problem created by current and past land use activities in all forested regions, especially those related to road building for natural-resource extraction. Our results show that the effect of roads reached well beyond their boundary and that abandonment or the decommissioning of roads did not reverse detrimental ecological effects; rather, our results indicate that management decisions have significant repercussions for generations to come. Furthermore, the quantity of suitable forested habitat in the protected areas we studied was significantly reduced: between 28.6% and 36.9% of the area was affected by roads. Management and policy decisions must use current and historical data on land use to understand cumulative impacts on forest-dependent species and to fully protect biodiversity on national landsPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73456/1/j.1523-1739.2006.00571.x.pd

Data mining: a tool for detecting cyclical disturbances in supply networks.

Disturbances in supply chains may be either exogenous or endogenous. The ability automatically to detect, diagnose, and distinguish between the causes of disturbances is of prime importance to decision makers in order to avoid uncertainty. The spectral principal component analysis (SPCA) technique has been utilized to distinguish between real and rogue disturbances in a steel supply network. The data set used was collected from four different business units in the network and consists of 43 variables; each is described by 72 data points. The present paper will utilize the same data set to test an alternative approach to SPCA in detecting the disturbances. The new approach employs statistical data pre-processing, clustering, and classification learning techniques to analyse the supply network data. In particular, the incremental k-means clustering and the RULES-6 classification rule-learning algorithms, developed by the present authors’ team, have been applied to identify important patterns in the data set. Results show that the proposed approach has the capability automatically to detect and characterize network-wide cyclical disturbances and generate hypotheses about their root cause

Trophic amplification of climate warming

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems

Aerosol chemical composition and distribution during the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics

Distributions of aerosol-associated soluble ions over much of the South Pacific were determined by sampling from the NASA DC-8 as part of the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics campaign. The mixing ratios of all ionic species were surprisingly low throughout the free troposphere (2-12 km), despite the pervasive influence from biomass burning plumes advecting over the South Pacific from the west during PEM-Tropics. At the same time, the specific activity of 7Be frequently exceeded 1000 fCi m-3 through much of the depth of the troposphere. These distributions indicate that the plumes must have been efficiently scavenged by precipitation (removing the soluble ions), but that the scavenging must have occurred far upwind of the DC-8 sampling regions (otherwise 7Be activities would also have been low). This inference is supported by large enhancements of HNO3 and carboxylic acids in many of the plumes, as these soluble acidic gases would also be readily scavenged in any precipitation events. Decreasing mixing ratios of NH4 + with altitude in all South Pacific regions sampled provide support for recent suggestions that oceanic emissions of NH3 constitute a significant source far from continents. Our sampling below 2 km reaffirms the latitudinal pattern in the methylsulfonate/non-sea-salt sulfate (MSA/nss SO4 =) molar ratio established through surface-based and shipboard sampling, with values increasing from \u3c0.05 in the tropics to nearly 0.6 at 70°S. However, we also found very high values of this ratio (0.2-0.5) at 10 km altitude above the intertropical convergence zone near 10°N. It appears that wet convective pumping of dimethylsulfide from the tropical marine boundary layer is responsible for the high values of the MSA/nss SO4 = ratio in the tropical upper troposphere. This finding complicates use of this ratio to infer the zonal origin of biogenic S transported long distances. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union