Cascade Failure in a Phase Model of Power Grids

We propose a phase model to study cascade failure in power grids composed of generators and loads. If the power demand is below a critical value, the model system of power grids maintains the standard frequency by feedback control. On the other hand, if the power demand exceeds the critical value, an electric failure occurs via step out (loss of synchronization) or voltage collapse. The two failures are incorporated as two removal rules of generator nodes and load nodes. We perform direct numerical simulation of the phase model on a scale-free network and compare the results with a mean-field approximation.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

Externalizing symptoms among children of alcoholic parents: Entry points for an antisocial pathway to alcoholism.

We examined heterogeneity in risk for externalizing symptoms in children of alcoholic parents as it may inform the search for entry points into an antisocial pathway to alcoholism. Specifically, we tested whether the number of alcoholic parents in a family, the comorbid subtype of parent alcoholism, and the gender of the child predicted trajectories of externalizing symptoms over the early life course as assessed in high-risk samples of children of alcoholic parents and matched controls. Through integrative analyses of two independent, longitudinal studies, we showed that children with either antisocial alcoholic parents or two alcoholic parents were at greatest risk for externalizing symptoms. Moreover, children with a depressed alcoholic parent did not differ from those with an antisocial alcoholic parent in reported symptoms. These findings were generally consistent across mother-, father- and adolescent-reports of symptoms, child gender and child age (ages 2 through 17), and the two independent studies examined. Multi-alcoholic and comorbid-alcoholic families may thus convey a genetic susceptibility to dysregulation along with environments that both exacerbate this susceptibility and provide few supports to offset it

Developing the content of two behavioural interventions : using theory-based interventions to promote GP management of upper respiratory tract infection without prescribing antibiotics #1

Background: Evidence shows that antibiotics have limited effectiveness in the management of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) yet GPs continue to prescribe antibiotics. Implementation research does not currently provide a strong evidence base to guide the choice of interventions to promote the uptake of such evidence-based practice by health professionals. While systematic reviews demonstrate that interventions to change clinical practice can be effective, heterogeneity between studies hinders generalisation to routine practice. Psychological models of behaviour change that have been used successfully to predict variation in behaviour in the general population can also predict the clinical behaviour of healthcare professionals. The purpose of this study was to design two theoretically-based interventions to promote the management of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) without prescribing antibiotics. Method: Interventions were developed using a systematic, empirically informed approach in which we: selected theoretical frameworks; identified modifiable behavioural antecedents that predicted GPs intended and actual management of URTI; mapped these target antecedents on to evidence-based behaviour change techniques; and operationalised intervention components in a format suitable for delivery by postal questionnaire. Results: We identified two psychological constructs that predicted GP management of URTI: "Self-efficacy," representing belief in one's capabilities, and "Anticipated consequences," representing beliefs about the consequences of one's actions. Behavioural techniques known to be effective in changing these beliefs were used in the design of two paper-based, interactive interventions. Intervention 1 targeted self-efficacy and required GPs to consider progressively more difficult situations in a "graded task" and to develop an "action plan" of what to do when next presented with one of these situations. Intervention 2 targeted anticipated consequences and required GPs to respond to a "persuasive communication" containing a series of pictures representing the consequences of managing URTI with and without antibiotics. Conclusion: It is feasible to systematically develop theoretically-based interventions to change professional practice. Two interventions were designed that differentially target generalisable constructs predictive of GP management of URTI. Our detailed and scientific rationale for the choice and design of our interventions will provide a basis for understanding any effects identified in their evaluation. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00376142This study is funded by the European Commission Research Directorate as part of a multi-partner program: Research Based Education and Quality Improvement (ReBEQI): A Framework and tools to develop effective quality improvement programs in European healthcare. (Proposal No: QLRT-2001-00657)

Translating clinicians' beliefs into implementation interventions (TRACII) : a protocol for an intervention modeling experiment to change clinicians' intentions to implement evidence-based practice

Background: Biomedical research constantly produces new findings, but these are not routinely incorporated into health care practice. Currently, a range of interventions to promote the uptake of emerging evidence are available. While their effectiveness has been tested in pragmatic trials, these do not form a basis from which to generalise to routine care settings. Implementation research is the scientific study of methods to promote the uptake of research findings, and hence to reduce inappropriate care. As clinical practice is a form of human behaviour, theories of human behaviour that have proved to be useful in other settings offer a basis for developing a scientific rationale for the choice of interventions. Aims: The aims of this protocol are 1) to develop interventions to change beliefs that have already been identified as antecedents to antibiotic prescribing for sore throats, and 2) to experimentally evaluate these interventions to identify those that have the largest impact on behavioural intention and behavioural simulation. Design: The clinical focus for this work will be the management of uncomplicated sore throat in general practice. Symptoms of upper respiratory tract infections are common presenting features in primary care. They are frequently treated with antibiotics, and research evidence is clear that antibiotic treatment offers little or no benefit to otherwise healthy adult patients. Reducing antibiotic prescribing in the community by the "prudent" use of antibiotics is seen as one way to slow the rise in antibiotic resistance, and appears safe, at least in children. However, our understanding of how to do this is limited. Participants will be general medical practitioners. Two theory-based interventions will be designed to address the discriminant beliefs in the prescribing of antibiotics for sore throat, using empirically derived resources. The interventions will be evaluated in a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial delivered in a postal questionnaire survey. Two outcome measures will be assessed: behavioural intention and behavioural simulation.This study is funded by the European Commission Research Directorate as part of a multi-partner program: Research Based Education and Quality Improvement (ReBEQI): A Framework and tools to develop effective quality improvement programs in European healthcare. (Proposal No: QLRT-2001-00657)

Smoking onset and the time-varying effects of self-efficacy, environmental smoking, and smoking-specific parenting by using discrete-time survival analysis

This study examined the timing of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and the time-varying effects of refusal self-efficacy, parental and sibling smoking behavior, smoking behavior of friends and best friend, and parental smoking-specific communication. We used data from five annual waves of the ‘Family and Health’ project. In total, 428 adolescents and their parents participated at baseline. Only never smokers were included at baseline (n = 272). A life table and Kaplan–Meier survival curve showed that 51% of all adolescents who did not smoke at baseline did not start smoking within 4 years. The risk for smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence is rather stable (hazard ratio between 16 and 19). Discrete-time survival analyses revealed that low refusal self-efficacy, high frequency of communication, and sibling smoking were associated with smoking onset one year later. No interaction effects were found. Conclusively, the findings revealed that refusal self-efficacy is an important predictor of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and is independent of smoking-specific communication and smoking behavior of parents, siblings, and (best) friend(s). Findings emphasize the importance of family prevention programs focusing on self-efficacy skills

High-level characteristics of or-and independent and-parallelism in prolog

Although studies of a number of parallel implementations of logic programming languages are now available, their results are difficult to interpret due to the multiplicity of factors involved, the effect of each of which is difficult to sepárate. In this paper we present the results of a high-level simulation study of or- and independent and-parallelism with a wide selection of Prolog programs that aims to determine the intrinsic amount of parallelism, independently of implementation factors, thus facilitating this separation. We expect this study will be instrumental in better understanding and comparing results from actual implementations, as shown by some examples provided in the paper. In addition, the paper examines some of the issues and tradeoffs associated with the combination of and- and or-parallelism and proposes reasonable solutions based on the simulation data obtained

Predicting substance use behavior among South African adolescents: The role of leisure experiences across time

Using seven waves of data, collected twice a year from the 8th through the 11th grades in a low-resource community in Cape Town, South Africa, we aimed to describe the developmental trends in three specific leisure experiences (leisure boredom, new leisure interests, and healthy leisure) and substance use (cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana) behaviors and to investigate the ways in which changes in leisure experiences predict changes in substance use behaviors over time. Results indicated that adolescents’ substance use increased significantly across adolescence, but that leisure experiences remained fairly stable over time. We also found that adolescent leisure experiences predicted baseline substance use and that changes in leisure experiences predicted changes in substance use behaviors over time, with leisure boredom emerging as the most consistent and strongest predictor of alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use. Implications for interventions that target time use and leisure experiences are discussed.Web of Scienc

Social marketing and social influences: Using social ecology as a theoretical framework

Social marketing has traditionally been dominated by an individualistic model of design. In this work, the authors apply a social ecology model to the theory and practice of social marketing, demonstrating that a multilevel framework is required to fully expose and account for the complexity of sociocultural and environmental effects. The authors have generated a diagnostic tool for this use. The paper then provides a detailed demonstration of the potential power of the tool by applying it to three illustrative case studies: one on encouraging safer driving, the second promoting sustainable travel, and the third increasing early detection of lung cancer. © 2010 Westburn Publishers Ltd

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on overweight and obesity: Scotland-wide, cross-sectional study on 40,036 participants

<p>Background: Weight control is cited by some people, especially adolescent girls, as a reason for commencing smoking or not quitting. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between smoking behaviour and being overweight or obese, overall and by age and sex sub-groups.</p> <p>Methods: We used data from the six Scottish Health Surveys conducted to date (1995--2010) to undertake a population-based, cross-sectional study on 40,036 participants representative of the adult (>=16 years) Scottish population. Height and weight were measured by a trained interviewer, not self-reported.</p> <p>Results: 24,459 (63.3%) participants were overweight (BMI >=25 kg/m2) and 9,818 (25.4%) were obese (BMI >=30 kg/m2). Overall, current smokers were less likely to be overweight than never smokers. However, those who had smoked for more than 20 years (adjusted OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.41-1.69, p < 0.001) and ex-smokers (adjusted OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.25, p < 0.001) were more likely to be overweight. There were significant interactions with age. Participants 16--24 years of age, were no more likely to be overweight if they were current (adjusted OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.84-1.20, p = 0.944) or ex (adjusted OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.67-1.14, p = 0.319) smokers. The same patterns pertained to obesity.</p> <p>Conclusions: Whilst active smoking may be associated with reduced risk of being overweight among some older adults, there was no evidence to support the belief among young people that smoking protects them from weight gain. Making this point in educational campaigns targeted at young people may help to discourage them from starting to smoke.</p&gt