Combining functional weed ecology and crop stable isotope ratios to identify cultivation intensity: a comparison of cereal production regimes in Haute Provence, France and Asturias, Spain

This investigation combines two independent methods of identifying crop growing conditions and husbandry practices—functional weed ecology and crop stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis—in order to assess their potential for inferring the intensity of past cereal production systems using archaeobotanical assemblages. Present-day organic cereal farming in Haute Provence, France features crop varieties adapted to low-nutrient soils managed through crop rotation, with little to no manuring. Weed quadrat survey of 60 crop field transects in this region revealed that floristic variation primarily reflects geographical differences. Functional ecological weed data clearly distinguish the Provence fields from those surveyed in a previous study of intensively managed spelt wheat in Asturias, north-western Spain: as expected, weed ecological data reflect higher soil fertility and disturbance in Asturias. Similarly, crop stable nitrogen isotope values distinguish between intensive manuring in Asturias and long-term cultivation with minimal manuring in Haute Provence. The new model of cereal cultivation intensity based on weed ecology and crop isotope values in Haute Provence and Asturias was tested through application to two other present-day regimes, successfully identifying a high-intensity regime in the Sighisoara region, Romania, and low-intensity production in Kastamonu, Turkey. Application of this new model to Neolithic archaeobotanical assemblages in central Europe suggests that early farming tended to be intensive, and likely incorporated manuring, but also exhibited considerable variation, providing a finer grained understanding of cultivation intensity than previously available

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. Interpretation: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. Funding: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Lessons learned and study results from HIVCore, an HIV implementation science initiative

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138261/1/jia21261.pd

Magnitude, temporal trends, and projections of the global prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Global and regional prevalence estimates for blindness and vision impairment are important for the development of public health policies. We aimed to provide global estimates, trends, and projections of global blindness and vision impairment. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based datasets relevant to global vision impairment and blindness that were published between 1980 and 2015. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate the prevalence (by age, country, and sex), in 2015, of mild visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 to 6/18 inclusive), moderate to severe visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/18 to 3/60 inclusive), blindness (presenting visual acuity worse than 3/60), and functional presbyopia (defined as presenting near vision worse than N6 or N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance visual acuity was better than 6/12). Findings: Globally, of the 7·33 billion people alive in 2015, an estimated 36·0 million (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·9–65·4) were blind (crude prevalence 0·48%; 80% UI 0·17–0·87; 56% female), 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5–359·1) people had moderate to severe visual impairment (2·95%, 80% UI 1·34–4·89; 55% female), and 188·5 million (80% UI 64·5–350·2) had mild visual impairment (2·57%, 80% UI 0·88–4·77; 54% female). Functional presbyopia affected an estimated 1094·7 million (80% UI 581·1–1686·5) people aged 35 years and older, with 666·7 million (80% UI 364·9–997·6) being aged 50 years or older. The estimated number of blind people increased by 17·6%, from 30·6 million (80% UI 9·9–57·3) in 1990 to 36·0 million (80% UI 12·9–65·4) in 2015. This change was attributable to three factors, namely an increase because of population growth (38·4%), population ageing after accounting for population growth (34·6%), and reduction in age-specific prevalence (–36·7%). The number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment also increased, from 159·9 million (80% UI 68·3–270·0) in 1990 to 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5–359·1) in 2015. Interpretation: There is an ongoing reduction in the age-standardised prevalence of blindness and visual impairment, yet the growth and ageing of the world’s population is causing a substantial increase in number of people affected. These observations, plus a very large contribution from uncorrected presbyopia, highlight the need to scale up vision impairment alleviation efforts at all levels

Global causes of blindness and distance vision impairment 1990–2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Contemporary data on causes of vision impairment and blindness form an important basis for recommendations in public health policies. Refreshment of the Global Vision Database with recently published data sources permitted modeling of cause of vision loss data from 1990 to 2015, further disaggregation by cause, and forecasts to 2020. Methods: Published and unpublished population-based data on the causes of vision impairment and blindness from 1980 to 2015 were systematically analysed. A series of regression models were fit to estimate the proportion of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; defined as presenting visual acuity <6/18 but ≥3/60 in the better eye) and blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60 in the better eye) by cause by age, region, and year. Findings: Among the projected global population with MSVI (216.6 million; 80% uncertainty intervals [UI] 98.5-359.1), in 2015 the leading causes thereof are uncorrected refractive error (116.3 million; UI 49.4-202.1), cataract (52.6 million; UI 18.2-109.6), age-related macular degeneration (AMD; 8.4 million; UI 0.9-29.5), glaucoma (4.0 million; UI 0.6-13.3) and diabetic retinopathy (2.6 million; UI 0.2-9.9). In 2015, the leading global causes of blindness were cataract (12.6 million; UI 3.4-28.7) followed by uncorrected refractive error (7.4 million; UI 2.4-14.8) and glaucoma (2.9 million; UI 0.4-9.9), while by 2020, these numbers affected are anticipated to rise to 13.4 million, 8.0 million and 3.2 million, respectively. Cataract and uncorrected refractive error combined contributed to 55% of blindness and 77% of MSVI in adults aged 50 years and older in 2015. World regions varied markedly in the causes of blindness, with a relatively low prevalence of cataract and a relatively high prevalence of AMD as causes for vision loss in the High-income subregions. Blindness due to cataract and diabetic retinopathy was more common among women, while blindness due to glaucoma and corneal opacity was more common among men, with no gender difference related to AMD. Conclusions: The numbers of people affected by the common causes of vision loss have increased substantially as the population increases and ages. Preventable vision loss due to cataract and refractive error (reversible with surgery and spectacle correction respectively), continue to cause the majority of blindness and MSVI in adults aged 50+ years. A massive scale up of eye care provision to cope with the increasing numbers is needed if one is to address avoidable vision loss

Profile of Dogs’ Breeders and Their Considerations on Female Reproduction, Maternal Care and the Peripartum Stress—An International Survey

Dogs are part of many households worldwide and in recent years in some western countries, more and more people describe them as members of the family. The accurate number of dogs per household and the actual demand for puppies are hard to estimate correctly. The sources of dogs seem to be an important element to consider before acquiring a dog since some behavioural disorders are more likely observed in dogs coming from puppy mills and pet stores. Therefore, there is an increased need to better-know dog breeders, theirs believes and practices. To full-fill this objective, an online questionnaire in five different languages (English, German, Polish, Portuguese and Spanish) was sent to dog breeders. The survey intended to study the demographics of dog breeders and to understand their perception and practices about reproduction, maternal behaviour and management of the dam during the peripartum period. We were also interested to evaluate the occurrence and the impact of stress around parturition and how breeders deal with overstressed bitches and if they believe that motherly quality could have a later-on effect on the livelihood of the dog. Six hundred and sixty-eight respondents participated in the survey, mainly from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Portugal, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America and non-listed country (reported as ‘other’ in the survey). A country effect was observed in relation to housing system, human interaction, the use of techniques to define breeding and whelping time and different methods to manage stress during the peripartum period. Considering the demographics of the responders, breeding activity is, in general, a family based activity with an effect of country. Use of progesterone levels to manage reproduction and pregnancy diagnosis by ultrasound were cited as common practice. In general, parturition takes place under human supervision. Peripartum period was perceived as a stressful moment with a difference in the way of addressing the problem based on the country but reassuring the bitch by increasing human presence was frequently described. Inappropriate maternal behaviour was observed by half of responders and if presented primiparous bitches and parturition by C-section were overrepresented. Puppies stayed with the dams from 4 weeks to 9 weeks and dog breeders from Spain, Poland and Portugal are keeping puppies with their mother the longest. Overall, poor maternal behaviour has an impact on puppies’ cognitive development with German breeders being more convinced than their counterparts from Brazil and Spain

Development of a Cat Behaviour Issues Assessment Scale (CABIAS) Assessing Problem Behaviours in Cats

Problem behaviours in cats, such as urine marking, scratching, fear, and problems of cohabitation between cats, can present a potential welfare problem for those affected cats and have a negative impact on the human–animal bond. The aim of this study was to develop a Cat Behaviour Issues Assessment Scale (CABIAS) for caregivers to assess these common problem behaviours in cats, and to investigate aspects of the validity and reliability of the CABIAS. The CABIAS uses an index score as a scoring system combining aspects of the frequency and intensity of the problem behaviour. An electronic survey was developed, and 384 households, each with two participants able to observe the cat’s behaviour, were recruited for the study. The participants were asked to record their cat’s behaviour independently at weekly intervals over a 6-week period. A FELIWAY Optimum diffuser (containing a commercial feline pheromone complex) was provided to half of the participants, to be used during part of the study. The participants were subdivided into four groups according to whether a problem behaviour was present (or not) and whether the pheromone diffuser was provided (or not). The results demonstrated that the index scores for each problem behaviour had very high inter-rater reliability. There was a high correlation between the index scores and the impact the problem behaviours had on the caregivers. In those cats with a declared problem behaviour where the product was used, a reduction in index scores was observed over the duration of the study. The CABIAS was shown to exhibit satisfactory validity, reliability, and sensitivity to change in the current study, suggesting that it may be valuable as a tool for assessing and monitoring scratching, inter-cat cohabitation, urine marking, and fear in cats. The CABIAS could be used by veterinarians and behaviourists to assess these problem behaviours in individual cats and monitor responses to treatment. The CABIAS could also be considered as a research tool to assess the efficacy of interventions aimed at improving these problems