Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend to be favorable relative to the central tendency of the underlying distributions. We also find that those forecasters who report favorable point estimates in the current survey tend to do so in subsequent surveys. These findings, plus the inescapable fact that point forecasts reveal nothing about the uncertainty that forecasters feel, suggest that the SPF and similar surveys should not ask for point forecasts. It seems more reasonable to elicit probabilistic expectations and derive measures of central tendency and uncertainty, as we do here.

Algorithms for geodesics

Algorithms for the computation of geodesics on an ellipsoid of revolution are given. These provide accurate, robust, and fast solutions to the direct and inverse geodesic problems and they allow differential and integral properties of geodesics to be computed.Comment: LaTex, 12 pages, 8 figures. Version 2 corrects some errors and adds numerical examples. Supplementary material is available at http://geographiclib.sourceforge.net/geod.htm

Elastic Attention: Enhanced, then Sharpened Response to Auditory Input as Attentional Load Increases

A long debate in selective attention research is whether attention enhances sensory response or sharpens neural tuning by suppressing response to non-target input. In fact, both processes may occur as a function of load: an uncertain listener might use a broad attentional filter to enhance responses to all inputs (i.e., vigilance), yet employ sharpened tuning to focus on hard to discriminate targets. The present work used the greater signal gain, anatomical precision, and laterality separation of intracranial electrophysiological recordings (electrocorticograms) to investigate these competing effects. Data were recorded from acoustically-responsive cortex in the perisylvian region of a single hemisphere in five neurosurgery patients. Patients performed a dichotic listening task in which they alternately attended toward, away from, or completely ignored (silent reading) tones presented to designated ears at varying presentation rates. Comparisons between the grand-averaged event-related potential (ERP) waveforms show a striking change in the effect of selective auditory attention with attentional load. At slower presentation rates (low-load), ERPs were overall enhanced in response to both input channels and regardless of attended ear, including a significant enhancement of ipsilateral input. This result supports a broadly enhancing model of attention under low perceptual load conditions. At the fastest rate, however, only responses to attended inputs contralateral to grid location remained enhanced. This result supports an increasing suppression, or “sharpening,” of neural responses to non-targets with increasing attentional load. These data provide support for an elastic model of attention in which attentional scope narrows with increasing load

Clone Size of \u3ci\u3eAndropogon gerardii\u3c/i\u3e Vitman (Big Bluestem) at Konza Prairie, Kansas

Clone size of plants of Andropogon gerardii from Konza Prairie Biological Station, Manhattan, Kansas was estimated from spatial patterns of genetic variation, using proteins detected by starch gel electrophoresis and DNA content (ploidy) measured by flow cytometry. Unique multi-locus protein banding patterns and differences in ploidy were used to exclude plants as members of the same clone. Individual clones averaged about 2 m in diameter and areas of prairie of 100 m2 were calculated to contain an average of 31.8 genetic individuals

Advanced Solid-State Array Spectrometer (ASAS) data sets from the 1990 field season: A unique look at two forested ecosystems

The Advanced Solid-state Array Spectrometer (ASAS) is a pointable imaging spectrometer which uses a solid-state array to acquire imagery of terrestrial targets in 29 spectral bands from .4 to .8 microns. Performance and calibration of the instrument are described. The ASAS data sets obtained in 1990 provide a unique look at forest canopies from two different forest regions of the North America continent under varying temporal, spectral, and bidirectional conditions. These data sets will be used to study such parameters as the albedo of forest canopies, the dynamics of scene radiation due to factors such as canopy architecture, moisture stress, leaf chemistry, topography, and understory composition

Results of the Cooperative Uniform Soybean Nurseries

United States Department of Agriculture Bureau of Plant Industry, Cooperating with Bureau of Agricultural Chemistry and Engineering, and the State Agricultural Experiment Stations Of The North Central Region

The intracellular distribution of radioiodine labeled lactogenic hormone in the rabbit mammary gland

The bulletin reports on Department of Dairy Husbandry Research Project 28, 'Hormone Enzymes'--P. [2].Digitized 2007 AES.Includes bibliographical references (pages 46-52)

Retrieving Nuclear Information from Protons Propagating through A Thick Target

The multiple scattering of high-energy particles in a thick target is fromulated in an impact parameter representation. A formalism similar but not identical to that of Moliere is obtained. We show that calculations of particle beam broadening due to multiple Coulomb scattering alone can be given in closed form. The focus of this study is on whether or not the broadening of the Coulomb angular distribution prevents the retrieval of nuclear-interaction information from mesauring the angular distributions of charged partiles scattered from a thick target. For this purpose, we study multiple scatterings with both the nuclear and Coulomb interactions included and we do not make a small-angle expansion. Condition for retrieving nuclear infomration from high-energy protons propagating through a block of material are obtained.Comment: 29 pages, 13 figure