PATENTS, R&D AND LAG EFFECTS: EVIDENCE FROM FLEXIBLE METHODS FOR COUNT PANEL DATA ON MANUFACTURING FIRMS

Hausman, Hall and Griliches (1984) and Hall, Griliches and Hausman (1986) investigated whether there was a lag in the patent-R&D relationship for the U.S. manufacturing sector using 1970¿s data. They found that there was little evidence of anything but contemporaneous movement of patents and R&D. We reexamine this important issue employing new longitudinal patent data at the firm level for the U.S. manufacturing sector from 1982 to 1992. To address unique features of the data, we estimate various distributed lag and dynamic multiplicative panel count data models. The paper also develops a new class of count panel data models based on series expansion of the distribution of individual effects. The empirical analyses show that, although results are somewhat sensitive to different estimation methods, the contemporaneous relationship between patenting and R&D expenditures continues to be rather strong, accounting for over 60% of the total R&D elasticity. Regarding the lag structure of the patents-R&D relationship, we do find a significant lag in all empirical specifications. Moreover, the estimated lag effects are higher than have previously been found, suggesting that the contribution of R&D history to current patenting has increased from the 1970¿s to the 1980¿s.Innovative activity, Patents and R&D, Individual effects, count panel data methods.

Outward Migration of Terrestrial Embryos in Binary Systems

We consider the formation and migration of protoplanetary embryos in disks around the stars in tight binary systems (separations ~ 20 AU. In such systems, the initial stages of runaway embryo formation are expected to only take place within some critical disk radius a_{crit}, due to the perturbing effect of the binary companions (Thebault et al. 2009). We perform n-body simulations of the evolution of such a population of inner-disk embryos surrounded by an outer-disk of smaller planetesimals. Taking Alpha Centauri-B as our fiducial reference example in which a_{crit} ~ 0.7 AU, and using a Minimum Mass Nebular Model with $\Sigma \propto a^{-3/2}$, we find that within 10^6 yrs (10^7 yrs), systems will on average contain embryos which have migrated out to 0.9 AU (1.2 AU), with the average outer-most body having a mass of 0.2 M_{earth} 0.4 M_{earth}. Changes to increase the surface density of solids or to use a flatter profile both produce increased embryo migration and growth. At a given time, the relative change in semi-major axis of the outer-most embryo in these simulations is found to be essentially independent of a_{crit}, and we note that little further embryo migration takes place beyond 10^7 years. We conclude that the suppression of runaway growth outside a_{crit} does not mean that the habitable zones in such tight binary systems will be devoid of detectable, terrestrial mass planets, even if a_{crit} lies significantly interior to the inner edge of the habitable zone.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

A Climatology of Northwest Missouri Snowfall Events: Long Term Trends and Interannual Variability.

The goal of this study was to develop a 50-year statistical climatology of snowfall occurrences using data from a dense network of cooperative station observations covering northwest and central Missouri, and these records were provided by the Missouri Climate Center. This included a study of the long term trends and interannual variability in snowfall occurrence as related to sea surface temperature variations in the Pacific Ocean basin associated with the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). These trends and variations were then related to four synoptic-scale flow regimes that produce these snowfalls in the Midwest. The results demonstrate that during the snowfall season (Oct - April) the northwest Missouri region can expect about eight snowfall events which produce three or more inches of accumulation. While no significant long-term trend in overall snowfall occurrence was found, a decrease in the number of extreme events (10 or more inches) was noted. Also, fewer snowfall events were found during El Nino years, while more heavy snowfall events occurred during "neutral" years, and these results could be related to synoptic- scale variability. A closer examination of the results demonstrated that El Nino/La Nina related variability in snowfall occurrence was superimposed on longer-term NPO-related variability.This research was supported by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Cooperative program for Operational Meteorological Education and Training (COMET) Outreach Programunder award # 98115921

Exploring the prevalence and diversity of pollen carried by four species of migratory Old World warbler (Sylvioidea) on arrival in the UK

Capsule Pollen encrusted around the bill of migrating warblers can reveal marked differences in foraging ecology between bird species. Aims To examine patterns of the prevalence and diversity of pollen in four species of warbler, and explore the potential of pollen to act as an indicator of recent foraging behaviour. Methods By isolating pollen from bill encrustations using laboratory palynological techniques and identification by light microscopy, we examined variation in the prevalence of the five most common pollen taxa, and variation in pollen assemblages in four species of warbler arriving on the south coast of England. Results All samples contained abundant pollen, with 19 floral taxa identified. Sylvia warblers tended to carry Prunus and Citrus pollen, while Phylloscopus warblers mainly carried Eucalyptus pollen. Pollen assemblages varied markedly between bird species. Conclusion Commercial and garden flowering trees are an important resource for migrating warblers. Pollen may be such a valuable resource that flowering plants might be included in the conservation management of stopover sites. The use of pollen to resolve migratory routes may be problematic however, requiring detailed knowledge of both the distribution and flowering phenology of plants en route

An analysis of a long-lived MCV observed over the Southern Plains using Potential Vorticity diagnostics.

On the morning of 28 May 1998, a mesoscale convectively-generated vortex (MCV) was observed over the Southern Plains. This MCV was evident in the GOES-8 visual satellite imagery resulting in a spectacular picture. An analysis of this event is offered using many data sources, including products available now via the world-wide-web (WWW), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re-analyses, and Eta model initializations. This MCV developed out of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that existed during 26 and 27 May over Texas. This MCV was associated with reports of severe weather and heavy precipitation over southern Arkansas. While the MCV is shown to have characteristics similar to other MCV events documented, this event is unique in that it maintained it's character, while propagating further east than other events. A dynamical analysis using potential vorticity diagnostics (PV) shows that the mid-latitude vorticity field strengthened at least partially as a result of diabatic heating. Also, the most severe weather was associated with high values of integrated 500 - 300 hPa PV values over the Southern Plains

Resilience to Stress and Disturbance, and Resistance to Bromus tectorum L. Invasion in Cold Desert Shrublands of Western North America

Alien grass invasions in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are resulting in grass–fire cycles and ecosystem-level transformations that severely diminish ecosystem services. Our capacity to address the rapid and complex changes occurring in these ecosystems can be enhanced by developing an understanding of the environmental factors and ecosystem attributes that determine resilience of native ecosystems to stress and disturbance, and resistance to invasion. Cold desert shrublands occur over strong environmental gradients and exhibit significant differences in resilience and resistance. They provide an excellent opportunity to increase our understanding of these concepts. Herein, we examine a series of linked questions about (a) ecosystem attributes that determine resilience and resistance along environmental gradients, (b) effects of disturbances like livestock grazing and altered fire regimes and of stressors like rapid climate change, rising CO2, and N deposition on resilience and resistance, and (c) interacting effects of resilience and resistance on ecosystems with different environmental conditions. We conclude by providing strategies for the use of resilience and resistance concepts in a management context. At ecological site scales, state and transition models are used to illustrate how differences in resilience and resistance influence potential alternative vegetation states, transitions among states, and thresholds. At landscape scales management strategies based on resilience and resistance—protection, prevention, restoration, and monitoring and adaptive management—are used to determine priority management areas and appropriate actions

Random geometric complexes

We study the expected topological properties of Cech and Vietoris-Rips complexes built on i.i.d. random points in R^d. We find higher dimensional analogues of known results for connectivity and component counts for random geometric graphs. However, higher homology H_k is not monotone when k > 0. In particular for every k > 0 we exhibit two thresholds, one where homology passes from vanishing to nonvanishing, and another where it passes back to vanishing. We give asymptotic formulas for the expectation of the Betti numbers in the sparser regimes, and bounds in the denser regimes. The main technical contribution of the article is in the application of discrete Morse theory in geometric probability.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures, final revisions, to appear in Discrete & Computational Geometr

Towards More Precise Survey Photometry for PanSTARRS and LSST: Measuring Directly the Optical Transmission Spectrum of the Atmosphere

Motivated by the recognition that variation in the optical transmission of the atmosphere is probably the main limitation to the precision of ground-based CCD measurements of celestial fluxes, we review the physical processes that attenuate the passage of light through the Earth's atmosphere. The next generation of astronomical surveys, such as PanSTARRS and LSST, will greatly benefit from dedicated apparatus to obtain atmospheric transmission data that can be associated with each survey image. We review and compare various approaches to this measurement problem, including photometry, spectroscopy, and LIDAR. In conjunction with careful measurements of instrumental throughput, atmospheric transmission measurements should allow next-generation imaging surveys to produce photometry of unprecedented precision. Our primary concerns are the real-time determination of aerosol scattering and absorption by water along the line of sight, both of which can vary over the course of a night's observations.Comment: 41 pages, 14 figures. Accepted PAS

A method-centric 'User Manual' for the mitigation of diffuse water pollution from agriculture

We describe the development of a manual of methods for mitigating diffuse water pollution from agriculture and its important influence on policy and practice in England and Wales. The objective of the ‘User Manual’ was to provide policy makers and those implementing policies with information about the cost, effectiveness and applicability of potential methods in a form that would be readily understood by non-specialists. The ‘User Manual’ was based on earlier reports synthesizing available research data and, where data were unavailable, used expert elicitation. The outcome generated 44 potential methods (under the broad categories of land use, soil management, livestock management, fertilizer management, manure management and farm infrastructure) and described the simultaneous impact of applying each method on losses of nitrate, phosphorus and faecal indicator organisms relative to baseline losses. Estimates of cost and effectiveness were presented at the whole-farm level for seven model farm types. Methods differed widely in their cost-effectiveness and applicability to the different model farms. Advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed and subsequent developments of the original ‘User Manual’ are described, together with the opinions of catchment officers who have used the ‘User Manual’ to implement mitigation methods on farms