Is scale-up worth it? Challenges in economic analysis of diagnostic tests for tuberculosis.

David Dowdy and colleagues discuss the complexities of costing new TB diagnostic tests, including GeneXpert, and argue that flexible analytic tools are needed for decision-makers to adapt large-sample cost-effectiveness data to local conditions

Diagnostic accuracy of TB-LAMP for pulmonary tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND:The need for a rapid, molecular test to diagnose tuberculosis (TB) has prompted exploration of TB-LAMP (Eiken; Tokyo, Japan) for use in resource-limited settings. We conducted a systematic review to assess the accuracy of TB-LAMP as a diagnostic test for pulmonary TB. METHODS:We analyzed individual-level data for eligible patients from all studies of TB-LAMP conducted between Jan 2012 and October 2015 to compare the diagnostic accuracy of TB-LAMP with that of smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF® using 3 reference standards of varying stringency. Pooled sensitivity and specificity and pooled differences in sensitivity and specificity were estimated using random effects meta-analysis. Study quality was evaluated using QUADAS-2. RESULTS:Four thousand seven hundred sixty individuals across 13 studies met eligibility criteria. Methodological quality was judged to be low for all studies. TB-LAMP had higher sensitivity than sputum smear microscopy (pooled sensitivity difference + 13·2, 95% CI 4·5-21·9%) and similar sensitivity to Xpert MTB/RIF (pooled sensitivity difference - 2·5, 95% CI -8·0 to + 2·9) using the most stringent reference standard available. Specificity of TB-LAMP was similar to that of sputum smear microscopy (pooled specificity difference - 1·8, 95% CI -3·8 to + 0·2) and Xpert MTB/RIF (pooled specificity difference 0·5, 95% CI -0·9 to + 1·8). CONCLUSIONS:From the perspective of diagnostic accuracy, TB-LAMP may be considered as an alternative test for sputum smear microscopy. Additional factors such as cost, feasibility, and acceptability in settings that continue to rely on sputum smear microscopy should be considered when deciding to adopt this technology. Xpert MTB/RIF should continue to be preferred in settings where resource and infrastructure requirements are adequate and where HIV co-infection or drug-resistance is of concern

Implementing pediatric inpatient asthma pathways.

ObjectivePathways are succinct, operational versions of evidence-based guidelines. Studies have demonstrated pathways improve quality of care for children hospitalized with asthma, but we have limited information on other key factors to guide hospital leaders and clinicians in pathway implementation efforts. Our objective was to evaluate the adoption, implementation, and reach of inpatient pediatric asthma pathways.MethodsThis was a mixed-methods study of hospitals participating in a national collaborative to implement pathways. Data sources included electronic surveys of implementation leaders and staff, field observations, and chart review of children ages 2-17 years admitted with a primary diagnosis of asthma. Outcomes included adoption by hospitals, pathway implementation factors, and reach of pathways to children hospitalized with asthma. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariable regression. Qualitative data were analyzed using thematic content analysis.ResultsEighty-five hospitals enrolled; 68 (80%) adopted/completed the collaborative. These 68 hospitals implemented pathways with overall high fidelity, implementing a median of 5 of 5 core pathway components (Interquartile Range [IQR] 4-5) in a median of 5 months (IQR 3-9). Implementation teams reported a median time cost of 78 h (IQR: 40-120) for implementation. Implementation leaders reported the values of pathway implementation included improvements in care, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and access to educational resources. Leaders reported barriers in modifying electronic health records (EHRs), and only 63% of children had electronic pathway orders placed.ConclusionsHospitals implemented pathways with high fidelity. Barriers in modifying EHRs may have limited the reach of pathways to children hospitalized with asthma

Seasonality of childhood tuberculosis cases in Kampala, Uganda, 2010-2015.

BackgroundSeasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been described, especially in children. However, few studies have assessed seasonality of TB in the equatorial region, and none in children.ObjectivesTo assess for seasonality of childhood TB cases in Kampala, Uganda, and determine the role of temperature, rainfall patterns, and influenza cases on TB diagnoses.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed demographic and clinical data of children (under 15 years) diagnosed with TB at a pediatric TB clinic in Kampala, Uganda from 2010 to 2015. We performed decomposition analysis of the monthly case time series to assess seasonality. We compared monthly mean plots and performed Poisson regression to assess any association between TB diagnoses and temperature, rainfall, and influenza.ResultsOf the 713 childhood TB cases diagnosed at the clinic, 609 (85%) were clinically diagnosed and 492 (69%) were pulmonary cases. There were minimal monthly variations in TB cases, with a trough in December and peaks in July and October, but there was no significant seasonality. Temperature variations did not show a clear pattern with TB diagnoses. Rainfall alternated with TB diagnoses in the first half of the year, but then overlapped in the second half and was significantly associated with TB diagnoses. Influenza cases were significantly related to TB diagnoses with (β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09, p = 0.01) or without (β = 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.1, p = 0.01) rainfall, and had particular overlap with pulmonary TB cases.ConclusionsSeasonal variations in childhood TB diagnoses were non-significant. Temperature did not have a clear pattern with TB diagnoses, but rainfall and influenza cases correlated with the primarily clinically diagnosed childhood TB cases

Unusual Radiographic Presentation of Pneumocystis Pneumonia in a Patient with AIDS.

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) typically presents as an interstitial and alveolar process with ground glass opacities on chest computed tomography (CT). The absence of ground glass opacities on chest CT is thought to have a high negative predictive value for PCP in individuals with AIDS. Here, we report a case of PCP in a man with AIDS who presented to our hospital with subacute shortness of breath and a nonproductive cough. While his chest CT revealed diffuse nodular rather than ground glass opacities, bronchoscopy with bronchoalveolar lavage and transbronchial biopsies confirmed the diagnosis of PCP and did not identify additional pathogens. PCP was not the expected diagnosis based on chest CT, but it otherwise fit well with the patient's clinical and laboratory presentation. In the era of combination antiretroviral therapy, routine prophylaxis for PCP, and increased use of computed tomography, it may be that PCP will increasingly present with nonclassical chest radiographic patterns. Clinicians should be aware of this presentation when selecting diagnostic and management strategies

Likelihood-Based Inference for Discretely Observed Birth-Death-Shift Processes, with Applications to Evolution of Mobile Genetic Elements

Continuous-time birth-death-shift (BDS) processes are frequently used in stochastic modeling, with many applications in ecology and epidemiology. In particular, such processes can model evolutionary dynamics of transposable elements - important genetic markers in molecular epidemiology. Estimation of the effects of individual covariates on the birth, death, and shift rates of the process can be accomplished by analyzing patient data, but inferring these rates in a discretely and unevenly observed setting presents computational challenges. We propose a mutli-type branching process approximation to BDS processes and develop a corresponding expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, where we use spectral techniques to reduce calculation of expected sufficient statistics to low dimensional integration. These techniques yield an efficient and robust optimization routine for inferring the rates of the BDS process, and apply more broadly to multi-type branching processes where rates can depend on many covariates. After rigorously testing our methodology in simulation studies, we apply our method to study intrapatient time evolution of IS6110 transposable element, a frequently used element during estimation of epidemiological clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Molecular genotyping in a malaria treatment trial in Uganda - unexpected high rate of new infections within 2 weeks after treatment.

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping of malaria parasites in drug efficacy trials helps differentiate reinfections from recrudescences. A combination therapy trial of one (n = 115) or three (n = 117) days artesunate (1AS, 3AS 4 mg/kg/day) plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) vs. SP alone (n = 153) was conducted in Mbarara, a mesoendemic area of western Uganda. All paired recurrent Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemias on days 7, 14, 21 and 28 post-treatment were genotyped by PCR amplification and analysis of glutamate-rich protein (glurp) and merozoite surface proteins (msp) 1 and 2 genes to distinguish recrudescent from new infections. A total of 156 (1AS = 61, 3AS = 35, SP alone = 60) of 199 paired recurrent samples were successfully analysed and were resolved as 79 recrudescences (1AS = 32, 3AS = 8, SP = 39) and 77 as new infections (1AS = 29, 3AS = 27, SP = 21). The ratios of proportions of new to recrudescent infections were 0.2, 0.9, 1.4 and 1.9 on days 7, 14, 21 and 28, respectively (P < 0.001, chi(2) test for linear trend). Unexpected high new infection rates were observed early in follow-up on days 7 [5/26 (19.2%)] and 14 [24/51 (47.1%)]. These results impact significantly on resistance monitoring and point to the value of genotyping all recurrent infections in antimalarial trials

Should Sputum Smear Examination Be Carried Out at the End of the Intensive Phase and End of Treatment in Sputum Smear Negative Pulmonary TB Patients?

The Indian guidelines on following up sputum smear-negative Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients differ from the current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines in that the former recommends two follow up sputum examinations (once at the end of intensive phase and the other at the end of treatment) while the latter recommends only one follow up sputum smear microscopy examination, which is done at the end of the intensive phase. This study was conducted to examine if there was any added value in performing an additional sputum smear examination at the end of treatment within the context of a national TB program

Direct microscopy versus sputum cytology analysis and bleach sedimentation for diagnosis of tuberculosis: a prospective diagnostic study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Diagnostic options for pulmonary tuberculosis in resource-poor settings are commonly limited to smear microscopy. We investigated whether bleach concentration by sedimentation and sputum cytology analysis (SCA) increased the positivity rate of smear microscopy for smear-positive tuberculosis. METHODS: We did a prospective diagnostic study in a Medecins Sans Frontieres-supported hospital in Mindouli, Republic of Congo. Three sputum samples were obtained from 280 consecutive pulmonary tuberculosis suspects, and were processed according to WHO guidelines for direct smear microscopy. The remainder of each sputum sample was homogenised with 2.6% bleach, sedimented overnight, smeared, and examined blinded to the direct smear result for acid-fast bacilli (AFB). All direct smears were assessed for quality by SCA. If a patient produced fewer than three good-quality sputum samples, further samples were requested. Sediment smear examination was performed independently of SCA result on the corresponding direct smear. Positivity rates were compared using McNemar's test. RESULTS: Excluding SCA, 43.2% of all patients were diagnosed as positive on direct microscopy of up to three samples. 47.9% were diagnosed on sediment microscopy, with 48.2% being diagnosed on direct microscopy, sediment microscopy, or both. The positivity rate increased from 43.2% to 47.9% with a case definition of one positive smear ([greater than or equal to]1 AFB/100 high power fields) of three, and from 42.1% to 43.9% with two positive smears. SCA resulted in 87.9% of patients producing at least two good-quality sputum samples, with 75.7% producing three or more. Using a case definition of one positive smear, the incremental yield of bleach sedimentation was 14/121, or 11.6% (95% CI 6.5-18.6, p=0.001) and in combination with SCA was 15/121, or 12.4% (95% CI 7.1-19.6, p=0.002). Incremental yields with two positive smears were 5/118, or 4.2% (95% CI 1.4-9.6, p=0.062) and 7/118, or 5.9% (95% CI 2.4-11.8, p=0.016), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of bleach sedimentation and SCA resulted in significantly increased microscopy positivity rates with a case definition of either one or two positive smears. Implementation of bleach sedimentation led to a significant increase in the diagnosis of smear-positive patients. Implementation of SCA did not result in significantly increased diagnosis of tuberculosis, but did result in improved sample quality. Requesting extra sputum samples based on SCA results, combined with bleach sedimentation, could significantly increase the detection of smear-positive patients if routinely implemented in resource-limited settings where gold standard techniques are not available. We recommend that a pilot phase is undertaken before routine implementation to determine the impact in a particular context