Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our very limited capacity to predict SL change on coastal scales, over various timescales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of current models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) key observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change

Pressure sensor drifts in Argo and their impacts

In recent years, autonomous profiling floats have become the prime component of the in situ ocean observing system through the implementation of the Argo program. These data are now the dominant input to estimates of the evolution of the global ocean heat content and associated thermosteric sea level rise. The Autonomous Profiling Explorer (APEX) is the dominant type of Argo float (~62%), and a large portion of these floats report pressure measurements that are uncorrected for sensor drift, the size and source of which are described herein. The remaining Argo float types are designed to automatically self-correct for any pressure drift. Only about 57% of the APEX float profiles (or ~38% Argo profiles) can be corrected, but this typically has not been done by the data centers that distribute the data (as of January 2009). A pressure correction method for APEX floats is described and applied to the Argo dataset. A comparison between estimates using the corrected Argo dataset and the publically available uncorrected dataset (as of January 2009) reveals that the pressure corrections remove significant regional errors from ocean temperature, salinity, and thermosteric sea level fields. In the global mean, 43% of uncorrectable APEX float profiles (or ~28% Argo profiles) appear to largely offset the effect of the correctable APEX float profiles with positive pressure drifts. While about half of the uncorrectable APEX profiles can, in principle, be recovered in the near future (after inclusion of technical information that allows for corrections), the other half have negative pressure drifts truncated to zero (resulting from firmware limitations), which do not allow for corrections. Therefore, any Argo pressure profile that cannot be corrected for biases should be excluded from global change research. This study underscores the ongoing need for careful analyses to detect and remove subtle but systematic errors in ocean observations

Impacts of basin-scale climate modes on coastal sea level: a review

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans. This paper also identifies major issues and challenges for future research on climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level. Understanding the effects of climate modes is essential for skillful near-term predictions and reliable uncertainty quantifications for future projections of coastal SLR

Changing expendable bathythermograph fall rates and their impact on estimates of thermosteric sea level rise

A time-varying warm bias in the global XBT data archive is demonstrated to be largely due to changes in the fall rate of XBT probes likely associated with small manufacturing changes at the factory. Deep-reaching XBTs have a different fall rate history than shallow XBTs. Fall rates were fastest in the early 1970s, reached a minimum between 1975 and 1985, reached another maximum in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and have been declining since. Field XBT/CTD intercomparisons and a pseudoprofile technique based on satellite altimetry largely confirm this time history. A global correction is presented and applied to estimates of the thermosteric component of sea level rise. The XBT fall rate minimum from 1975 to 1985 appears as a 10-yr “warm period” in the global ocean in thermosteric sea level and heat content estimates using uncorrected data. Upon correction, the thermosteric sea level curve has reduced decadal variability and a larger, steadier long-term trend

Super Residual Circulation : A New Perspective on Ocean Vertical Heat Transport

Ocean circulation and mixing regulate Earth's climate by moving heat vertically within the ocean. We present a new formalism to diagnose the role of ocean circulation and diabatic processes in setting vertical heat transport in ocean models. In this formalism we use temperature tendencies, rather than explicit vertical velocities, to diagnose circulation. Using quasi-steady-state simulations from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM2), we diagnose a diathermal overturning circulation in temperature-depth space. Furthermore, projection of tendencies due to diabatic processes onto this coordinate permits us to represent these as apparent overturning circulations. Our framework permits us to extend the concept of "Super Residual Transport,'' which combines mean and eddy advection terms with subgridscale isopycnal mixing due to mesoscale eddies but excludes small-scale threedimensional turbulent mixing effect, to construct a new overturning circulation-the "Super Residual Circulation'' (SRC). We find that in the coarse-resolution version of ACCESS-OM2 (nominally 1 degrees horizontal resolution) the SRC is dominated by an similar to 11-Sv (1 Sv [10(6) m(3) s(-1)) circulation that transports heat upward. The SRC's upward heat transport is;2 times as large in a finer-horizontal-resolution (0.1 degrees) version of ACCESS, suggesting that a differing balance of super-residual and parameterized small-scale processes may emerge as eddies are resolved. Our analysis adds new insight into superresidual processes, because the SRC elucidates the pathways in temperature and depth space along which water mass transformation occurs.Peer reviewe

Changes in the Subantarctic Mode Water properties and spiciness in the southern Indian Ocean based on Argo observations

The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) plays an essential role in the global heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrient budgets. In this study, decadal changes in the SAMW properties in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) and associated thermodynamic and dynamic processes are investigated during the Argo era. Both temperature and salinity of the SAMW in the SIO show increasing trends during 2004–18. A two-layer structure of the SAMW trend, with more warm and salty light SAMW but less cool and fresh dense SAMW, is identified. The heaving and spiciness processes are important but have opposite contributions to the temperature and salinity trends of the SAMW. A significant deepening of isopycnals (heaving), peaking at σθ = 26.7–26.8 kg m−3 in the middle layer of the SAMW, expands the warm and salty light SAMW and compresses the cool and fresh dense SAMW corresponding to the change in subduction rate during 2004–18. The change in the SAMW subduction rate is dominated by the change in the mixed layer depth, controlled by the changes in wind stress curl and surface buoyancy fluxes. An increase in the mixed layer temperature due to weakening northward Ekman transport of cool water leads to a lighter surface density in the SAMW formation region. Consequently, density outcropping lines in the SAMW formation region shift southward and favor the intrusion and entrainment of the cooler and fresher Antarctic surface water from the south, contributing to the cooling/freshening trend of isopycnals (spiciness). Subsequently, the cooler and fresher SAMW spiciness anomalies spread in the SIO via the subtropical gyre

Subpolar Southern Ocean response to changes in the surface momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes under 2xCO2

The Antarctic subpolar Southern Ocean (sSO) has fundamental climate importance. Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) originates in the sSO and supplies the lower limb of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), occupying 36% of ocean volume. Climate models struggle to represent continental shelf processes that form AABW. We explore sources of persistent model biases by examining response of the sSO to perturbations in surface forcing in a global ocean–sea ice model (ACCESS-OM2) that forms AABW both on shelf and in open ocean. The sSO response to individual and combined perturbations of surface heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes follows the WCRP CMIP6 FAFMIP-protocol. Wind perturbation (i.e., a poleward shift and intensification of the westerlies) is dominant, enhancing AABW formation and accelerating the global MOC. This occurs through upwelling of warm waters and inhibition of sea ice growth during winter, which triggers large open water polynya (OWP) events with associated deep convection. These events occur in the Weddell and Ross Seas and their variability is associated with availability of heat at midocean depths. These OWPs cease when the heat reservoir is depleted. Effects of surface warming and freshening only partially compensate changes from increasing winds on ocean stratification and depletion of AABW formation. These results indicate that overly convective models, such ACCESS-OM2, can respond to CO2-perturbed scenarios by forming too much AABW in OWP, which might not hold in models without OWPs. This might contribute to the large intermodel spread thermosteric sea level projections, being relevant to the interpretation of future projections by current climate models.Peer reviewe

Benchmarking of automatic quality control checks for ocean temperature profiles and recommendations for optimal sets

Millions of in situ ocean temperature profiles have been collected historically using various instrument types with varying sensor accuracy and then assembled into global databases. These are essential to our current understanding of the changing state of the oceans, sea level, Earth’s climate, marine ecosystems and fisheries, and for constraining model projections of future change that underpin mitigation and adaptation solutions. Profiles distributed shortly after collection are also widely used in operational applications such as real-time monitoring and forecasting of the ocean state and weather prediction. Before use in scientific or societal service applications, quality control (QC) procedures need to be applied to flag and ultimately remove erroneous data. Automatic QC (AQC) checks are vital to the timeliness of operational applications and for reducing the volume of dubious data which later require QC processing by a human for delayed mode applications. Despite the large suite of evolving AQC checks developed by institutions worldwide, the most effective set of AQC checks was not known. We have developed a framework to assess the performance of AQC checks, under the auspices of the International Quality Controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) project. The IQuOD-AQC framework is an open-source collaborative software infrastructure built in Python (available from https://github.com/IQuOD). Sixty AQC checks have been implemented in this framework. Their performance was benchmarked against three reference datasets which contained a spectrum of instrument types and error modes flagged in their profiles. One of these (a subset of the Quality-controlled Ocean Temperature Archive (QuOTA) dataset that had been manually inspected for quality issues by its creators) was also used to identify optimal sets of AQC checks. Results suggest that the AQC checks are effective for most historical data, but less so in the case of data from Mechanical Bathythermographs (MBTs), and much less effective for Argo data. The optimal AQC sets will be applied to generate quality flags for the next release of the IQuOD dataset. This will further elevate the quality and historical value of millions of temperature profile data which have already been improved by IQuOD intelligent metadata and observational uncertainty information (https://doi.org/10.7289/v51r6nsf)

More than 50 years of successful continuous temperature section measurements by the global expendable bathythermograph network, its integrability, societal benefits, and future

The first eXpendable BathyThermographs (XBTs) were deployed in the 1960s in the North Atlantic Ocean. In 1967 XBTs were deployed in operational mode to provide a continuous record of temperature profile data along repeated transects, now known as the Global XBT Network. The current network is designed to monitor ocean circulation and boundary current variability, basin-wide and trans-basin ocean heat transport, and global and regional heat content. The ability of the XBT Network to systematically map the upper ocean thermal field in multiple basins with repeated trans-basin sections at eddy-resolving scales remains unmatched today and cannot be reproduced at present by any other observing platform. Some repeated XBT transects have now been continuously occupied for more than 30 years, providing an unprecedented long-term climate record of temperature, and geostrophic velocity profiles that are used to understand variability in ocean heat content (OHC), sea level change, and meridional ocean heat transport. Here, we present key scientific advances in understanding the changing ocean and climate system supported by XBT observations. Improvement in XBT data quality and its impact on computations, particularly of OHC, are presented. Technology development for probes, launchers, and transmission techniques are also discussed. Finally, we offer new perspectives for the future of the Global XBT Network

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (zeta) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a zeta projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of zeta change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and zeta. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the zeta change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic zeta change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.Peer reviewe