Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The Role of Intersection Space Segments in Photochemical Reactions

We analyze here the role of the intersection space in the photochemistry of some organic compounds and how the topological properties of this space affect the mechanism of the photochemical reaction. This mechanism is related to the accessibility of different reaction paths in the relaxation in the ground state once the system reaches the intersection space (i.e. a conical intersection). It is proved that sometimes, even in the photochemistry of small organic molecules, the complete analysis of the intersection space is necessary for the correct computational prediction of the chemical mechanism and the formed photoproducts underlying the photoinduced reaction

NOTE ABOUT THE TAXONOMY OF PHASEOLUS HYGROPHILUS DEBOUCK (LEGUMINOSAE-PAPILIONOIDEAE)

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Molecular Pathogenesis of Neuroendocrine Tumors: Implications for Current and Future Therapeutic Approaches

The treatment landscape and biologic understanding of neuroendocrine tumors ( NET) has shifted dramatically in recent years. Recent studies have shown that somatostatin analogues have the potential not only to control symptoms of hormone hypersecretion but also have the ability to slow tumor growth in patients with advanced carcinoid. The results of clinical trials have further shown that the VEGF pathway inhibitor sunitinib and the mTOR inhibitor everolimus have efficacy in patients with advanced pancreatic NETs. The efficacy of these targeted therapies in NET suggests that the molecular characterization of NETs may provide an avenue to predict both which patients may benefit most from the treatment and to overcome potential drug resistance. Recent genomic studies of NETs have further suggested that pathways regulating chromatin remodeling and epigenetic modification may play a key role in regulating NET growth. These observations offer the potential for new therapeutic and diagnostic advances for patients with NET. (C) 2013 AACR

Determination of 21-hydroxylase autoantibodies: inter-laboratory concordance in the Euradrenal International Serum Exchange Program.

Abstract BACKGROUND: 21-Hydroxylase autoantibodies (21OHAb) are markers of an adrenal autoimmune process that identifies individuals with autoimmune Addison's disease (AAD). Quality and inter-laboratory agreement of various 21OHAb tests are incompletely known. The objective of the study was to determine inter-laboratory concordance for 21OHAb determinations. METHODS: Sixty-nine sera from 51 patients with AAD and 51 sera from 51 healthy subjects were blindly coded by a randomization center and distributed to 14 laboratories that determined 21OHAb, either by an "in-house" assay (n=9) using in vitro-translated 35S-21OH or luciferase-labeled 21OH or a commercial kit with 125I-21OH (n=5). Main outcome measures were diagnostic accuracy of each participating laboratory and inter-laboratory agreement of 21OHAb assays. RESULTS: Intra-assay coefficient of variation ranged from 2.6% to 5.3% for laboratories using the commercial kit and from 5.1% to 23% for laboratories using "in-house" assays. Diagnostic accuracy, expressed as area under ROC curve (AUC), varied from 0.625 to 0.947 with the commercial kit and from 0.562 to 0.978 with "in-house" methods. Cohen's \u3ba of inter-rater agreement was 0.603 among all 14 laboratories, 0.691 among "in-house" laboratories, and 0.502 among commercial kit users. Optimized cutoff levels, calculated on the basis of AUCs, increased the diagnostic accuracy of every laboratory (AUC >0.9 for 11/14 laboratories) and increased the Cohen's \u3ba of inter-rater agreement. Discrepancies in quantitation of 21OHAb levels among different laboratories increased with increasing autoantibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of 21OHAb analytical procedures is mainly influenced by selection of cutoff value and correct handling of assay materials. A standardization program is needed to identify common standard sera and common measuring units

Chemical solution deposition: a path towards low cost coated conductors

Abstract The achievement of low cost deposition techniques for high critical current YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 coated conductors is one of the major objectives to achieve a widespread use of superconductivity in power applications. Chemical solution deposition techniques are appearing as a very promising methodology to achieve epitaxial oxide thin films at a low cost, so an intense effort is being carried out to develop routes for all chemical coated conductor tapes. In this work recent achievements will be presented towards the goal of combining the deposition of different type of buffer layers on metallic substrates based on metal-organic decomposition with the growth of YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 layers using the trifluoroacetate route. The influence of processing parameters on the microstructure and superconducting properties will be stressed. High critical currents are demonstrated in 'all chemical' multilayers

Difficult tracheal intubation in neonates and infants. NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE): a prospective European multicentre observational study

International audienceBackground: Neonates and infants are susceptible to hypoxaemia in the perioperative period. The aim of this study was to analyse interventions related to anaesthesia tracheal intubations in this European cohort and identify their clinical consequences.Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of tracheal intubations of the European multicentre observational trial (NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe [NECTARINE]) in neonates and small infants with difficult tracheal intubation. The primary endpoint was the incidence of difficult intubation and the related complications. The secondary endpoints were the risk factors for severe hypoxaemia attributed to difficult airway management, and 30 and 90 day outcomes.Results: Tracheal intubation was planned in 4683 procedures. Difficult tracheal intubation, defined as two failed attempts of direct laryngoscopy, occurred in 266 children (271 procedures) with an incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.8% (95% CI, 5.1-6.5). Bradycardia occurred in 8% of the cases with difficult intubation, whereas a significant decrease in oxygen saturation (SpO2<90% for 60 s) was reported in 40%. No associated risk factors could be identified among co-morbidities, surgical, or anaesthesia management. Using propensity scoring to adjust for confounders, difficult anaesthesia tracheal intubation did not lead to an increase in 30 and 90 day morbidity or mortality.Conclusions: The results of the present study demonstrate a high incidence of difficult tracheal intubation in children less than 60 weeks post-conceptual age commonly resulting in severe hypoxaemia. Reassuringly, the morbidity and mortality at 30 and 90 days was not increased by the occurrence of a difficult intubation event