The Impact of Analyst Forecast Errors on Fundamental Indexation: The Australian Evidence

AbstractEvidence from many developed markets suggests that fundamental indices outperform capitalisation-weighted indices. Existing studies suspect a story of market mispricing, yet a mechanism has not been identified. Using Australian data, we study the relation between analyst forecast errors and the performance of various fundamental indices. We find that fundamental indices contain a relatively higher exposure to stocks with low analyst long-term growth forecasts. Valuations for these stocks are ex ante overly pessimistic and drive the statistical significance of alphas produced by fundamental indexation. We show how hedging against analyst forecast errors can generate additional alpha for investors using fundamental indexation.</jats:p

Influence of Heart Rate on Left and Right Ventricular Longitudinal Strain in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

Over the past years, a number of studies have demonstrated the relevance of strain assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) in evaluating ventricular function. The aim of this study was to analyze changes in left (LV) and right ventricular (RV) longitudinal strain associated with variations of heart rate (HR) in participants with and without chronic heart failure (CHF). We enrolled 45 patients, 38 of these diagnosed with CHF and carrying an implantable cardioverter defibrillator, and seven patients with pacemakers and without CHF. The frequency of atrial stimulation was increased to 90 beats/min and an echocardiogram was performed at each increase of 10 beats/min. Global LV and RV longitudinal strain (LVGLS and RVGLS, respectively) and RV free wall longitudinal strain (RVfwLS) were calculated at each HR. When analyzed as continuous variables, significant reductions in LVGLS were detected at higher HRs, whereas improvements in both RVGLS and RVfwLS were observed. Patients with a worsening of LVGLS (76% overall) were more likely to present lower baseline LV function. Only a few patients (18% for RVGLS and 16% for RVfwLS) exhibited HR-related deteriorations of RV strain measures, which was associated with lower levels of baseline RV function and higher pulmonary systolic pressures. Finally, 21 (47%) and 25 (56%) participants responded with improvements in RVGLS and RVfwLS, respectively. Our findings revealed heterogeneous RV and LV responses to increases in HR. These findings might ultimately be used to optimize cardiac functionality in patients diagnosed with CHF

Plant communities of Italy. The vegetation prodrome

The Vegetation Prodrome of Italy was promoted in 2012 by the Italian "Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea Protection", in collaboration with the "Italian Society of Botany", to provide a comprehensive and systematic catalogue and description of Italian plant communities. The Prodrome that is presented in this paper is the first full organic synthesis of the vegetation of Italy at the alliance syntaxonomic level. It fulfils several needs, the main one being a unified and comprehensive national framework that may make an important contribution to the definition of the European Vegetation Prodrome. Syntaxonomy, as well as taxonomy, is sometimes based on considerations that may in part diverge: several authors tend to favour models that are divisive or aggregative to a greater or lesser extent in terms of flora, biogeography and ecology. These different points of view stimulate the scientific debate and allow the adoption of a framework that is more widely supported. The Prodrome includes 75 classes, 2 subclasses, 175 orders, 6 suborders and 393 alliances. The classes were grouped into nine broad categories according to structural, physiognomic and synecological elements rather than to syntaxonomic criteria. The rank, full valid name, any synonymies and incorrect names are provided for each syntaxon. The short declaration highlights the physiognomy, synecology, syndynamics and distribution of the plant communities that belong to the syntaxon. The Prodrome of the Italian Vegetation is linked to the European Strategy for Biodiversity, the European Habitats Directive and the European Working Groups related to the ecosystems and their services. In addition to basic applications, the Prodrome can be used as a framework for scientific research related to the investigation of the relationships between plant communities and the environmental factors that influence their composition and distribution

MUSE-ALMA Halos XI: Gas flows in the circumgalactic medium

The flow of gas into and out of galaxies leaves traces in the circumgalactic medium which can then be studied using absorption lines towards background quasars. We analyse 27 log(N_HI) > 18.0 HI absorbers at z = 0.2 to 1.4 from the MUSE-ALMA Halos survey with at least one galaxy counterpart within a line of sight velocity of +/-500 km s^{-1}. We perform 3D kinematic forward modelling of these associated galaxies to examine the flow of dense, neutral gas in the circumgalactic medium. From the VLT/MUSE, HST broadband imaging and VLT/UVES and Keck/HIRES high-resolution UV quasar spectroscopy observations, we compare the impact parameters, star-formation rates and stellar masses of the associated galaxies with the absorber properties. We find marginal evidence for a bimodal distribution in azimuthal angles for strong HI absorbers, similar to previous studies of the MgII and OVI absorption lines. There is no clear metallicity dependence on azimuthal angle and we suggest a larger sample of absorbers are required to fully test the relationship predicted by cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. A case-by-case study of the absorbers reveals that ten per cent of absorbers are consistent with gas accretion, up to 30 per cent trace outflows while the remainder trace gas in the galaxy disk, the intragroup medium and low-mass galaxies below the MUSE detection limit. Our results highlight that the baryon cycle directly affects the dense neutral gas required for star-formation and plays a critical role in galaxy evolution.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, 12 pages of appendix. Accepted for publication in MNRA

A COMPARISON OF PRE-PROCESSING APPROACHES FOR REMOTELY SENSED TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION BASED ON FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS

Satellite remote sensing has gained a key role for vegetation mapping distribution. Given the availability of multi-temporal satellite data, seasonal variations in vegetation dynamics can be used trough time series analysis for vegetation distribution mapping. These types of data have a very high variability within them and are subjected by artifacts. Therefore, a pre-processing phase must be performed to properly detect outliers, for data smoothing process and to correctly interpolate the data. In this work, we compare four pre-processing approaches for functional analysis on 4-years of remotely sensed images, resulting in four time series datasets. The methodologies presented are the results of the combination of two outlier detection methods, namely tsclean and boxplot functions in R and two discrete data smoothing approaches (Generalized Additive Model &rdquo;GAM&rdquo; on daily and aggregated data). The approaches proposed are: tsclean-GAM on aggregated data (M01), boxplot-GAM on aggregated data (M02), tsclean-GAM on daily data (M03), boxplot-GAM on daily data (M04). Our results prove that the approach which involves tsclean function and GAM applied to daily data (M03) is ameliorative to the logic of the procedure and leads to better model performance in terms of Overall Accuracy (OA) which is always among the highest when compared with the others obtained from the other three different approaches

The RIBES strategy for ex situ conservation: conventional and modern techniques for seed conservation

The Italian seed bank network (RIBES) aims to improve the quality and safety of the germplasm reserves of native plant species in Italy to ensure the long-term conservation of endangered and/or endemic flora. The strategy includes traditional methods to secure seed conservation. A comprehensive priority list for seed collection is being defined, it was prepared by crossing data of various checklists (red lists, endemics) and will soon be cross-referenced with an updated list of accessions of the whole network. A safety-backup program of duplicates will quickly be implemented to secure the conservation of the most threatened species in at least two seed banks of the network. On the other hand, the RIBES strategy also includes research by applying modern techniques. In collaboration with the Millennium Seed Bank, research on the storage behaviour of seeds and spores through thermal analysis is ongoing to inform conservation. Using the Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), we could evaluate seed lipid properties such as glass transition temperature, melting, crystallization, oxidation behaviour, and thermal stability. Finally, RIBES participates as a co-funder in the LIFE Nature project SEEDFORCE, coordinating 11 seed banks of the network for collecting seeds/spores of 29 threatened species of EU interest

The RIBES strategy for ex situ conservation: conventional and modern techniques for seed conservation

The Italian seed bank network (RIBES) aims to improve the quality and safety of the germplasm reserves of native plant species in Italy to ensure the long-term conservation of endangered and/or endemic flora. The strategy includes traditional methods to secure seed conservation. A comprehensive priority list for seed collection is being defined, it was prepared by crossing data of various checklists (red lists, endemics) and will soon be cross-referenced with an updated list of accessions of the whole network. A safety-backup program of duplicates will quickly be implemented to secure the conservation of the most threatened species in at least two seed banks of the network. On the other hand, the RIBES strategy also includes research by applying modern techniques. In collaboration with the Millennium Seed Bank, research on the storage behaviour of seeds and spores through thermal analysis is ongoing to inform conservation. Using the Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), we could evaluate seed lipid properties such as glass transition temperature, melting, crystallization, oxidation behaviour, and thermal stability. Finally, RIBES participates as a co-funder in the LIFE Nature project SEEDFORCE, coordinating 11 seed banks of the network for collecting seeds/spores of 29 threatened species of EU interest

New national and regional Annex I Habitat records: from #26 to #36

New Italian data on the distribution of the Annex I Habitats 1510*, 2130*, 2250*, 3180*, 3260, 5230*, 6410, 7140, 7220*, 9320 are reported in this contribution. Specifically, 14 new occurrences in Natura 2000 sites are presented and 20 new cells are added in the EEA 10 km × 10 km reference grid. The new data refer to the Italian administrative regions of Abruzzo, Apulia, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Liguria, Marche, Molise, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany and Umbria

Notulae to the Italian native vascular flora: 3.

In this contribution new data concerning the distribution of native vascular flora in Italy are presented. It includes new records, exclusions, and confirmations to the Italian administrative regions for taxa in the genera Asplenium, Bolboschoenus, Botrychium, Chamaerops, Crocus, Galeopsis, Grafia, Helosciadium, Hieracium, Juniperus, Leucanthemum, Lolium, Medicago, Phalaris, Piptatherum, Potamogeton, Salicornia, Salvia, Seseli, Silene, Spiraea, Torilis and Vicia. Rhaponticoides calabrica is proposed as synonym novum of R. centaurium. Furthermore, new combinations in the genera Galatella and Lactuca are proposed

First overview on the 4th Annex I Habitats Report in Italy: methods, criticality, results and future prospects

Like all the other EU/28 countries, in 2019 Italy developed the 4th Italian Report ex-Art. 17 on the conservation status of the Habitats of Annex I to the 92/43/EEC Directive. Institutional referent of the process, on behalf of the Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea Protection (MATTM), was the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) with the scientific support of the Italian Botanical Society (SBI). A huge working group composed of thematic and territorial experts was formed with the task to collect, analyse, validate the data resulting from Annex I Habitat monitoring in Italy for the period 2013-2018, whose collection is in charge to the regional administrations. Data on 124 types of terrestrial and inland water Habitats present in Italy have been processed in order to assess their overall conservation status in the Biogeographic Regions of occurrence. The carried out activity led to the compilation of 278 assessment sheets. The work included a critical analysis of the data and a broad scientific confrontation aimed at finding methodologically robust solutions to fill the gaps. The work was structured so as to guarantee the traceability of the information and to allow the collection of "gray" literature and scientific articles, phytosociological surveys and unpublished material of the specialists, composing a substantial pool of data useful for starting a long-term process to support the next reporting cycles. Cartographic outcomes, associated databases and additional data used for the assessments will be available online on the ISPRA Portal as soon as the validation process by the European Commission will be completed. A freely accessible online archive of phytosociological surveys representative of the various Annex I Habitats in Italy is being set up within the national "VegItaly" database, managed by the Italian Society of Vegetation Science, by way of a dedicated archive named "HAB_IT". Such a long-term vision, oriented to the storage and enhancement of knowledge, represents an important innovative aspect and a significant progress towards the construction of an effective monitoring system for the conservation of Annex I Habitats in Italy