Foot-and-mouth disease in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Tanzania, with outbreaks occurring almost each year in different parts of the country. There is now a strong political desire to control animal diseases as part of national poverty alleviation strategies. However, FMD control requires improving the current knowledge on the disease dynamics and factors related to FMD occurrence so control measures can be implemented more efficiently. The objectives of this study were to describe the FMD dynamics in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006 and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of transmission. Extraction maps, the space-time K-function and space-time permutation models based on scan statistics were calculated for each year to evaluate the spatial distribution, the spatiotemporal interaction and the spatiotemporal clustering of FMD-affected villages. From 2001 to 2006, 878 FMD outbreaks were reported in 605 different villages of 5815 populated places included in the database. The spatial distribution of FMD outbreaks was concentrated along the Tanzania-Kenya, Tanzania-Zambia borders, and the Kagera basin bordering Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania. The spatiotemporal interaction among FMD-affected villages was statistically significant (P≤0.01) and 12 local spatiotemporal clusters were detected; however, the extent and intensity varied across the study period. Dividing the country in zones according to their epidemiological status will allow improving the control of FMD and delimiting potential FMD-free areas

Accuracy and precision of the estimation of the number of missing levels in chaotic spectra using long-range correlations

We study the accuracy and precision for estimating the fraction of observed levels $\varphi$ in quantum chaotic spectra through long-range correlations. We focus on the main statistics where theoretical formulas for the fraction of missing levels have been derived, the $\Delta_3$ of Dyson and Mehta and the power spectrum of the $\delta_n$ statistic. We use Monte Carlo simulations of the spectra from the diagonalization of Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble matrices with a definite number of levels randomly taken out to fit the formulas and calculate the distribution of the estimators for different sizes of the spectrum and values of $\varphi$. A proper averaging of the power spectrum of the $\delta_n$ statistic needs to be performed for avoiding systematic errors in the estimation. Once the proper averaging is made the estimation of the fraction of observed levels has quite good accuracy for the two methods even for the lowest dimensions we consider $d=100$. However, the precision is generally better for the estimation using the power spectrum of the $\delta_n$ as compared to the estimation using the $\Delta_3$ statistic. This difference is clearly bigger for larger dimensions. Our results show that a careful analysis of the value of the fit in view of the ensemble distribution of the estimations is mandatory for understanding its actual significance and give a realistic error interval.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers and metabolites – an analytical review on seafood occurrence

Environmental health is systematically compromised by persistent toxic substances, which may have serious implications in terms of food safety issues and, thus, in general public health. In this context, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their biologically active metabolites have been increasingly assessed in seafood, the main route of human exposure. As a consequence, a multiplicity of solvent-assisted analytical approaches is now available to accurately determine tiny amounts of these contaminants in complex matrices, like seafood. However, the majority of analytical procedures lead to high organic solvent consumption, thereby also contributing to the deterioration of environmental health. The current review provides up-to-date information and critical discussion regarding the most common methodologies applied in the determination of PBDEs and their metabolites in seafood (2006–2016), from sample preparation to instrumental analysis. The ultimate goals of this comprehensive survey are to sensitize field researchers to work under the principles of green chemistry and to improve the global consciousness on the potential necessity of their regulation in foodstuffs.Rebeca Cruz, Sara C. Cunha and Susana Casal thanks REQUIMTE, FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) and FEDER through the project UID/QUI/50006/2013 e POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265 with financial support from FCT/MEC through national funds and co-financed by FEDER, under the Partnership Agreement PT2020. R. Cruz also thanks to REQUIMTE FCT for the PhD grant e FRH/BD/ 101945/2014. Antonio Marques and Sara C. Cunha acknowledge FCT for the IF2014 and IF/01616/2015 contracts, respectively

IFMIF suitability for evaluation of fusion functional materials

The International FusionMaterials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) is a future neutron source based on the D-Li stripping reaction, planned to test candidate fusionmaterials at relevant fusion irradiation conditions. During the design of IFMIF special attention was paid to the structural materials for the blanket and first wall, because they will be exposed to the most severe irradiation conditions in a fusion reactor. Also the irradiation of candidate materials for solid breeder blankets is planned in the IFMIF reference design. This paper focuses on the assessment of the suitability of IFMIF irradiation conditions for testing functionalmaterials to be used in liquid blankets and diagnostics systems, since they are been also considered within IFMIF objectives. The study has been based on the analysis and comparison of the main expected irradiation parameters in IFMIF and DEMO reactor

Design and validity of a badminton observation tool (BOT)

La metodología observacional permite analizar deportes en contexto y dinámicas habituales. El objetivo principal fue la construcción y validación de una herramienta observacional ad hoc para analizar el bádminton individual, que incluye la trayectoria de los desplazamientos como variable no analizada anteriormente. Constituida por 13 criterios y 47 categorías mutuamente excluyentes, fueron analizadas 287 acciones del Campeonato de Mundo de Bádminton 2015. Para la validación se utilizó el coeficiente Kappa de Cohen y la teoría de la generalizabilidad. Se han obtenido resultados, tanto para la herramienta como para cada uno de los criterios de forma individual, superiores a 0,98 estando por encima de 0,81 que propone la literatura como “casi perfecto”. El análisis de la generalizabilidad se realizó mediante un modelo de dos facetas (Categoría/Observador = C/O) y reveló que la fiabilidad era excelente (1,00). La herramienta diseñada es válida y fiable para el análisis de las conductas del bádminton individualObservational methodology allows analysing sports’ specific behaviour context. The main purpose of this manuscript was to develop and validate an ad hoc observational tool for badminton singles games, which includes lunges trajectories as a non-analysed variable till this study. For that reason, the observational tool consists of 13 criteria and 47 categories mutually exclusive. 287actions of the 2015 Badminton World Championship were analysed. With the aim to assess the tool’s validity Cohen’s Kappa and generalizability theory were used. The outcomes for complete observational tool and for each criterion exceed 0.98, being above 0.81 proposed by literature as “almost perfect”. Generalizability analysis was done by two sides model (Category/Observer = C/O) and showed an excellent reliability (1.00). It could be said that it is a reliable tool designed for recording and analyzing the behaviour of badminton singles playersEste trabajo ha sido posible gracias a la Generalitat Valenciana y su programa de becas ACIF 2016/121 para la contratación de personal investigador en formación y al apoyo del proyecto de la Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir: Estudios en el deporte de élite desde los Mixed Methods: técnicas de estudio de análisis comparativos [UCV2017/230/002

Influence of match status on corner kick in elite soccer

El propósito del estudio es analizar como la variable situacional resultado parcial puede afectar al comportamiento táctico-estratégico en los saques de esquina en fútbol. Se han estudiado 902 saques de esquina realizados en 95 partidos correspondientes a la UEFA Euro 2012, y Fase Final de la FIFA World Cup 2010. Para identificar las interacciones se utilizó el método de crecimiento Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID), que nos ha permitido identificar tres modelos: con el resultado de empate en los últimos minutos de juego, el equipo atacante incorpora al remate entre 2 a 5 jugadores y el equipo rival sitúa 1 ó 2 jugadores bajo palos. Ganando en los últimos minutos del encuentro, el equipo sitúa también entre 2 a 5 jugadores en ataque y el rival no defiende bajo palos. Perdiendo en los últimos minutos del encuentro, el equipo atacante incorpora a 6 o más jugadores al ataqueThe aim of this study was to examine the effects of the situational variable match status on corner kicks performance indicators in 95 matches played during the final stages of the 2012 UEFA European Championships and the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Video recordings of the matches were analyzed and coded post-event using notational analysis. Multiple interactions between the performance indicators and match status were analyzed using the Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision-tree method. The results show that when a corner kick is taken during the last 30 minutes of the match, teams that are losing place 6 or more attackers in the shooting area, while teams that are drawing place 2-5 attackers in this area. In the same situation, teams that are drawing place 1-2 defenders at the goalposts while winning teams place non

Distributing the burdens of climate change

Global climate change raises many questions for environmental political theorists. This article focuses on the question of identifying the agents that should bear the financial burden of preventing dangerous climate change. Identifying in a fair way the agents that should take the lead in climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the precise burdens that these parties must bear, will be a key aspect of the next generation of global climate policies. After a critical review of a number of rival approaches to burden sharing, the paper argues that only a principled and philosophically robust reconciliation of three approaches to burden sharing (‘contribution to problem’, ‘ability to pay’ and ‘beneficiary pays’) can generate a satisfactory mix of theoretical coherence and practical application

Burning in the management of heathlands of Erica ciliaris and Erica tetralix: effects on structure and diversity

Can controlled burning be used as a management tool of Erica ciliaris and Erica tetralix wet heathlands? Two E. ciliaris and E. tetralix communities were selected and two 5 x 5 m plots were established in each. These were then characterised on the basis of frequency and cover values and plant species composition. They were subjected to experimental burning, after which the plots were sampled twice a year during the following four and a half years. The results show that the cover of woody species very quickly attained the values of the Control Plots. Diversity and species composition did not suffer notable changes during this period, however, temporal heterogeneity indicates that the main changes occur in the first 18 months of secondary succession. The multivariate analysis showed that the samples registered during this time were grouped as a function of the cover values of the species, which shows that stages exist in the vegetation recovery of these communities. The damage produced by fire in the community is minor, as a rapid recovery of the vegetation was observed, so controlled burning is a useful tool in the management of these heathlands

Strategic planning of the integrated urban wastewater system using adaptation pathways (article)

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe dataset associated with this article is located in ORE at: https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.2443Emerging threats such as climate change and urbanisation pose an unprecedented challenge to integrated management of urban wastewater systems, which are expected to function in a reliable, resilient and sustainable manner regardless of future conditions. Traditional long term planning is rather limited in developing no-regret strategies that avoid maladaptive lock-ins in the near term and allow for flexibility in the long term. In this study, a novel adaptation pathways approach for urban wastewater management is developed in order to explore the compliance and adaptability potential of intervention strategies in a long term operational period, accounting for different future scenarios and multiple performance objectives in terms of reliability, resilience and sustainability. This multi-criteria multi-scenario approach implements a regret-based method to assess the relative performance of two types of adaptation strategies: (I) standalone strategies (i.e. green or grey strategies only); and (II) hybrid strategies (i.e. combined green and grey strategies). A number of adaptation thresholds (i.e. the points at which the current strategy can no longer meet defined objectives) are defined to identify compliant domains (i.e. periods of time in a future scenario when the performance of a strategy can meet the targets). The results obtained from a case study illustrate the trade-off between adapting to short term pressures and addressing long term challenges. Green strategies show the highest performance in simultaneously meeting near and long term needs, while grey strategies are found less adaptable to changing circumstances. In contrast, hybrid strategies are effective in delivering both short term compliance and long term adaptability. It is also shown that the proposed adaption pathways method can contribute to the identification of adaptation strategies that are developed as future conditions unfold, allowing for more flexibility and avoiding long term commitment to strategies that may cause maladaptation. This provides insights into the near term and long term planning of ensuring the reliability, resilience and sustainability of integrated urban drainage systems.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC