Modelling for Pest Risk Analysis: Spread and Economic Impacts

The introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range is one of the main causes of the loss of biodiversity and leads to severe costs. Bioeconomic models that integrate biological invasion spread theory, economic impacts and invasion management would be of great help to increase the transparency of pest risk analysis (PRA) and provide for more effective and efficient management of invasive pests. In this thesis, bioeconomic models of management of invasive pests are developed. The models are applied to three cases of study. The main case looks at the invasion in Europe by the western corn rootworm (WCR), Diabrotica virgifera ssp. virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). A range of quantitative modelling approaches was employed: (i) dispersal kernels fitted to mark-release-recapture experimental data; (ii) optimal control models combined with info-gap theory; (iii) spatially explicit stochastic simulation models; and (iv) agent-based models. As a result of the application of the models new insights on the management of invasive pests and the links between spread and economic impacts were gained: (i) current official management measures to eradicate WCR were found to be ineffective; (ii) eradication and containment programmes that are economically optimal under no uncertainty were found out to be also the most robustly immune policy to unacceptable outcomes under severe uncertainty; (iii) PRA focusing on single invasive pests might lead to management alternatives that dot not correspond to the optimal economic allocation if the rest of the invasive pests sharing the same management budget are considered; (iv) the control of satellite colonies of an invasion occurring by stratified dispersal is ineffective when a strong propagule pressure is generated from the main body of the invasion and this effect is increased by the presence of human-assisted long-distance dispersal; and (v) agent-based models were shown to be an adequate tool to integrate biological invasion spread models with economic analysis models

Economics of Robust Surveillance on Exotic Animal Diseases: the Case of Bluetongue

Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designing surveillance programs for exotic and emerging diseases is very challenging because of knowledge gaps on the probability of incursion and mechanisms of spread. Using the example of Bluetongue Virus, which is exotic to the UK, we develop a metapopulation epidemic-economic modelling framework that considers the incursion, detection, spread and control of a disease in a livestock production system composed of heterogeneous subpopulations. The model is then embedded in an information gap (info-gap) framework to assess the robustness of surveillance and vaccination policies to unacceptable outbreaks losses and applied to the case of Bluetongue in the UK. The results show that active reporting of suspect clinical signs by farmers is a very robust way to reduce unacceptable outcomes. Vaccination of animals in high risk regions led to robustly protective programs. If vaccines are not available, surveillance targeted to the high risk region is very robust even if the extent of the high risk region is not known and effectiveness of detection is very low. Surveillance programs focusing in all regions with the same intensity are in general not robust unless the dispersal of the vector connecting both regions is very high.compartmental epidemic model, emergent animal disease, Knightian uncertainty, sentinel surveillance system, Livestock Production/Industries,

Optimal Control of Spreading Biological Invasions: For How Long Should We Apply the Brake?

Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management policies is a very complex task and policy makers are in need of modelling tools to assist them. In this paper we develop an optimal control bioeconomic model to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We apply the models to the case study of Colorado potato beetle in the UK. The results demonstrate that eradication is optimal for small initial sizes of invasion at discovery. High capacity of the agency to reduce spread velocity for several years leads to smaller total overall costs of invasion and makes eradication optimal for larger sizes of initial invasion. In many cases, it is optimal to switch from control to acceptance within the time horizon. The switching point depends on the capacity of the agency, initial size of invasion, spread velocity of the IAS and the ratio of unit cost of damage and removal. We encourage the integration of the dispersal patterns of the invader and the geometry of the invasion in the theoretical development of the economics of IAS invasion management.barrier zone, biosecurity, dynamic optimization, eradication, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, pest risk analysis, reaction-diffusion., Risk and Uncertainty, Q1, Q28, Q57,

GeMs/GSAOI observations of La Serena 94: an old and far open cluster inside the solar circle

Physical properties were derived for the candidate open cluster La Serena 94, recently unveiled by the VVV collaboration. Thanks to the exquisite angular resolution provided by GeMS/GSAOI, we could characterize this system in detail, for the first time, with deep photometry in JHK$_{s}$ - bands. Decontaminated JHK$_{s}$ diagrams reach about 5 mag below the cluster turnoff in H. The locus of red clump giants in the colour - colour diagram, together with an extinction law, was used to obtain an average extinction of $A_V =14.18 \pm 0.71$. The same stars were considered as standard - candles to derive the cluster distance, $8.5 \pm 1.0$ kpc. Isochrones were matched to the cluster colour - magnitude diagrams to determine its age, $\log{t(yr)}=9.12\pm 0.06$, and metallicity, $Z=0.02\pm0.01$. A core radius of $r_{c}=0.51\pm 0.04$ pc was found by fitting King models to the radial density profile. By adding up the visible stellar mass to an extrapolated mass function, the cluster mass was estimated as $M=(2.65\pm0.57) \times 10^3$ M$_{\odot}$, consistent with an integrated magnitude of $M_{K}=-5.82\pm0.16$ and a tidal radius of $r_{t}=17.2\pm2.1$ pc. The overall characteristics of La Serena 94 confirm that it is an old open cluster located in the Crux spiral arm towards the fourth Galactic quadrant and distant $7.30\pm 0.49$ kpc from the Galactic centre. The cluster distorted structure, mass segregation and age indicate that it is a dynamically evolved stellar system.Comment: 16 pages, 24 figures, 2 Tables, accepted by MNRAS; corrected typo

Anticipating the locations in Europe of high-risk areas for West Nile virus outbreaks in 2021

West Nile virus infections in humans are continuously increasing, and the virus has spread considerably in Europe over the past decade. The incidence of the disease was unusually high between 2018 and 2020. The resulting model identifies the West Nile virus outbreak-prone areas during 2021, even in regions where the virus has not yet been discovered. It is remarkable that in Central Europe, new favourable areas are emerging, where early actions could lessen the impact of the disease

Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes

As deforestation breaches into new tropical frontiers, proactive conservation strategies require a trifecta of information on where deforestation is accelerating (emergent), how drivers of deforestation vary spatiotemporally, and where to focus limited conservation resources in protecting the most integral yet threatened forested landscapes. Here we introduce Emergent Threat Analysis, a process integrating Emerging Hot Spot Analysis of deforestation, visual classification of deforestation outcomes over time, and spatial quantification of contemporary forest condition. We applied Emergent Threat Analysis to tropical Southeast Asia, a global epicentre of biodiversity threatened by deforestation. We found that emergent hot spots (EHS)-a subset of hot spots characterized by strong, recent, and clustered patterns of deforestation-accounted for 26.1% of total forest loss from 1992 to 2018, with deforestation within EHS proceeding at 2.5 times the regional rate of gross loss. Oil palm and rubber plantation expansion were the principal drivers of deforestation within EHS of insular and mainland SE Asia, respectively. Over the study period, oil palm shifted in importance from Sumatra and Sarawak to Papua and Kalimantan, whereas rubber became prominent in Cambodia and Tanintharyi from 2006 to 2015. As of 2019, more than 170 000 km(2) of SE Asia's remaining forest occurred within EHS, of which 21.7% was protected. High and medium-integrity forest constituted 19.2% and 49.1% of remaining EHS forest, respectively, but of these, 35.0% of high-integrity and 23.9% of medium-integrity EHS forest were protected. Because we anticipate that tree plantation expansion will continue to drive deforestation in SE Asia, significantly heightened protection is needed to secure the long-term preservation of high and medium-integrity forest, especially in highly contested forest frontier regions. Finally, as a flexible, integrated process, Emergent Threat Analysis is applicable to deforestation fronts across the global tropics.Peer reviewe

Recognition of intrinsic values of sentient beings explains the sense of moral duty towards global nature conservation

Whether nature is valuable on its own (intrinsic values) or because of the benefits it provides to humans (instrumental values) has been a long-standing debate. The concept of relational values has been proposed as a solution to this supposed dichotomy, but the empirical validation of its intuitiveness remains limited. We experimentally assessed whether intrinsic/relational values of sentient beings/non-sentient beings/ecosystems better explain people’s sense of moral duty towards global nature conservation for the future. Participants from a representative sample of the population of Singapore (n = 1508) were randomly allocated to two “the last human” scenarios. We found that the best predictor of such a sense of moral duty for future nature conservation is the recognition of the intrinsic values of sentient beings. Our results suggest that the concern for animal welfare may enhance rather than compete with the sense of moral duty towards nature conservation

Producción de leche durante el proceso de formación de un rancho de doble propósito en el trópico

Se analizaron los registros de producción de leche de 1971 a 1981 del . Rancho Bella Esperanza (RBE) el cual se encuentra en proceso de formación de un sistema de producción de doble propósito

Identifying new potential areas for the establishment of the invasive raccoon (Procyon lotor) in Europe

The concern about biological invasions is growing worldwide because implies a serious threat to biodiversity conservation, the high economic costs of management measures and, in many cases, involves a health risk for humans, since some species are host of pathogens that are transmitted to humans. The raccoon (Procyon lotor), a medium-size carnivore native from North America, is a good example of invasive species. Its high ecological plasticity has allowed it to adapt successfully to different ecosystems in Europe and Asia, where the species has been introduced due to: releases for hunting, fur farms escapes and more recently the pet trade. The successful raccoon’s expansion in Europe poses a threat to biodiversity conservation. In this study we review and update the distribution of this species in Europe, with the aim of identifying new potential areas for the establishment of the raccoon in Europe. According to this updating of presences and a set of predictors variables (environmental and human activity), we applied the Favourability Function to detect favourable areas for the species. Anthropic variables have a significant relevance explaining the current occurrence of this invasive species. The favourability model detected central Europe and the United Kingdom as the areas with the best conditions for the species, being related to territories with a high percentage of urban area. This may indicate that the invasion pattern could still be reflecting the places of releases. In this sense, the favourable areas for the presence of the raccoon highlight unoccupied zones with high potential to be established in the near future. Our results provide useful information to increase the monitoring effort and develop prevention plans to optimize effective control measuresUniversidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

¿Hay menos colirrojos reales que águilas perdiceras en Málaga?

Comunicación a congreso internacional en formato de pósterPara la conservación y gestión de cualquier especie de fauna silvestre es imprescindible conocer el tamaño de su población. Esto es especialmente importante para especies amenazadas. Los espacios protegidos son clave para la conservación de muchas de estas especies, siendo fundamental establecer planes de seguimiento poblacional a medio-largo plazo en estas áreas. El colirrojo real es un paseriforme insectívoro de hábitos forestales y distribución Eurosiberiana. En Europa ha sufrido un fuerte declive durante las últimas décadas y en España la especie está catalogada como vulnerable, siendo su principal amenaza la degradación de bosques maduros y el cambio de condiciones en los cuarteles de invernada. El Parque Natural de la Sierra de las Nieves alberga la población más meridional de la especie en Europa, donde está principalmente asociada a los bosques maduros de pinsapo. El objetivo de este estudio ha sido estimar la densidad de la especie en el pinsapar más longevo del parque, denominado como la Cañada del Cuerno (~31 ha). Para ello se recorrieron a pie un total de 4 km, repartidos de forma estratificada en 16 transectos de 250 m, representativos del área de estudio. Estas densidades son superiores a las previamente descritas, tanto en el norte de España como en el propio parque, donde ya se habían registrado las densidades más altas conocidas para la especie. Sin embargo, estas estimas se han realizado en una zona considerada como óptima, un pinsapar maduro con numerosas estacas (árboles muertos con numerosos huecos), motivo por el que no podemos hacer una extrapolación al resto del parque, donde las abundancias pueden variar en función de las características del medio.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech