Use of the bootstrap in analysing cost data from cluster randomised trials: some simulation results

BACKGROUND: This work has investigated under what conditions confidence intervals around the differences in mean costs from a cluster RCT are suitable for estimation using a commonly used cluster-adjusted bootstrap in preference to methods that utilise the Huber-White robust estimator of variance. The bootstrap's main advantage is in dealing with skewed data, which often characterise patient costs. However, it is insufficiently well recognised that one method of adjusting the bootstrap to deal with clustered data is only valid in large samples. In particular, the requirement that the number of clusters randomised should be large would not be satisfied in many cluster RCTs performed to date. METHODS: The performances of confidence intervals for simple differences in mean costs utilising a robust (cluster-adjusted) standard error and from two cluster-adjusted bootstrap procedures were compared in terms of confidence interval coverage in a large number of simulations. Parameters varied included the intracluster correlation coefficient, the sample size and the distributions used to generate the data. RESULTS: The bootstrap's advantage in dealing with skewed data was found to be outweighed by its poor confidence interval coverage when the number of clusters was at the level frequently found in cluster RCTs in practice. Simulations showed that confidence intervals based on robust methods of standard error estimation achieved coverage rates between 93.5% and 94.8% for a 95% nominal level whereas those for the bootstrap ranged between 86.4% and 93.8%. CONCLUSION: In general, 24 clusters per treatment arm is probably the minimum number for which one would even begin to consider the bootstrap in preference to traditional robust methods, for the parameter combinations investigated here. At least this number of clusters and extremely skewed data would be necessary for the bootstrap to be considered in favour of the robust method. There is a need for further investigation of more complex bootstrap procedures if economic data from cluster RCTs are to be analysed appropriately

Building better Sex Robots: Lessons from Feminist Pornography

How should we react to the development of sexbot technology? Taking their cue from anti-porn feminism, several academic critics lament the development of sexbot technology, arguing that it objectifies and subordinates women, is likely to promote misogynistic attitudes toward sex, and may need to be banned or restricted. In this chapter I argue for an alternative response. Taking my cue from the sex positive ‘feminist porn’ movement, I argue that the best response to the development of ‘bad’ sexbots is to make better ones. This will require changes to the content, process and context of sexbot development. Doing so will acknowledge the valuable role that technology can play in human sexuality, and allow us to challenge gendered norms and assumptions about male and female sexual desire. This will not be a panacea to the social problems that could arise from sexbot development, but it offers a more realistic and hopeful vision for the future of this technology in a pluralistic and progressive society

A randomised comparison evaluating changes in bone mineral density in advanced prostate cancer: luteinising hormone-releasing hormone agonists versus transdermal oestradiol.

BACKGROUND: Luteinising hormone-releasing hormone agonists (LHRHa), used as androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer (PCa) management, reduce serum oestradiol as well as testosterone, causing bone mineral density (BMD) loss. Transdermal oestradiol is a potential alternative to LHRHa. OBJECTIVE: To compare BMD change in men receiving either LHRHa or oestradiol patches (OP). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Men with locally advanced or metastatic PCa participating in the randomised UK Prostate Adenocarcinoma TransCutaneous Hormones (PATCH) trial (allocation ratio of 1:2 for LHRHa:OP, 2006-2011; 1:1, thereafter) were recruited into a BMD study (2006-2012). Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans were performed at baseline, 1 yr, and 2 yr. INTERVENTIONS: LHRHa as per local practice, OP (FemSeven 100μg/24h patches). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was 1-yr change in lumbar spine (LS) BMD from baseline compared between randomised arms using analysis of covariance. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 74 eligible men (LHRHa 28, OP 46) participated from seven centres. Baseline clinical characteristics and 3-mo castration rates (testosterone ≤1.7 nmol/l, LHRHa 96% [26 of 27], OP 96% [43 of 45]) were similar between arms. Mean 1-yr change in LS BMD was -0.021g/cm(3) for patients randomised to the LHRHa arm (mean percentage change -1.4%) and +0.069g/cm(3) for the OP arm (+6.0%; p<0.001). Similar patterns were seen in hip and total body measurements. The largest difference between arms was at 2 yr for those remaining on allocated treatment only: LS BMD mean percentage change LHRHa -3.0% and OP +7.9% (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Transdermal oestradiol as a single agent produces castration levels of testosterone while mitigating BMD loss. These early data provide further supporting evidence for the ongoing phase 3 trial. PATIENT SUMMARY: This study found that prostate cancer patients treated with transdermal oestradiol for hormonal therapy did not experience the loss in bone mineral density seen with luteinising hormone-releasing hormone agonists. Other clinical outcomes for this treatment approach are being evaluated in the ongoing PATCH trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN70406718, PATCH trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00303784)

First evidence for Wollemi Pine-type pollen (Dilwynites: Araucariaceae) in South America

We report the first fossil pollen from South America of the lineage that includes the recently discovered, extremely rare Australian Wollemi Pine, Wollemia nobilis (Araucariaceae). The grains are from the late Paleocene to early middle Eocene Ligorio Márquez Formation of Santa Cruz, Patagonia, Argentina, and are assigned to Dilwynites, the fossil pollen type that closely resembles the pollen of modern Wollemia and some species of its Australasian sister genus, Agathis. Dilwynites was formerly known only from Australia, New Zealand, and East Antarctica. The Patagonian Dilwynites occurs with several taxa of Podocarpaceae and a diverse range of cryptogams and angiosperms, but not Nothofagus. The fossils greatly extend the known geographic range of Dilwynites and provide important new evidence for the Antarctic region as an early Paleogene portal for biotic interchange between Australasia and South America.Mike Macphail, Raymond J. Carpenter, Ari Iglesias, Peter Wil

Targeted Disruption of the Low-Affinity Leukemia Inhibitory Factor-Receptor Gene Causes Placental, Skeletal, Neural and Metabolic Defects and Results in Perinatal Death

The low-affinity receptor for leukemia inhibitory factor (LIFR)* interacts with gp130 to induce an intracellular signal cascade, The LIFR-gp130 heterodimer is implicated in the function of diverse systems, Normal placentation is disrupted in LIFR mutant animals, which leads to poor intrauterine nutrition but allows fetuses to continue to term. Fetal bone volume is reduced greater than three-fold and the number of osteoclasts is increased six-fold, resulting in severe osteopenia of perinatal bone. Astrocyte numbers are reduced in the spinal cord and brain stem. Late gestation fetal livers contain relatively high stores of glycogen, indicating a metabolic disorder. Hematologic and primordial germ cell compartments appear normal. Pleiotropic defects in the mutant animals preclude survival beyond the day of birth

Rare musculoskeletal diseases in adults: a research priority setting partnership with the James Lind Alliance

Background Osteogenesis imperfecta, fibrous dysplasia/McCune-Albright syndrome and X-linked hypophosphatemia are three rare musculoskeletal diseases characterised by bone deformities, frequent fractures and pain. Little high-quality research exists on appropriate treatment and long-term management of these conditions in adults. This is further worsened by limited research funding in rare diseases and a general mismatch between the existing research priorities and those of the patients. This partnership adopted the James Lind Alliance approach to identify the top 10 research priorities for rare musculoskeletal diseases in adults through joint patient, carer and healthcare professional collaboration. Results The initial survey for question collection recruited 198 respondents, submitting a total of 988 questions. 77% of the respondents were patients with a rare musculoskeletal disease. Following out-of-scope question exclusion, repeating query grouping and scientific literature check for answers, 39 questions on treatment and long-term management remained. In the second public survey, 220 respondents, of whom 85% were patients with a rare musculoskeletal disease, their carers, relatives or friends, prioritised these uncertainties, which allowed selection of the top 25. In the last stage, patients, carers and healthcare professionals gathered for a priority setting workshop to reach a consensus on the final top 10 research priorities. These focus on the uncertainties surrounding appropriate treatment and holistic long-term disease management, highlighting several aspects indirect to abnormal bone metabolism, such as extra-skeletal symptoms, psychological care of both patients and their families and disease course through ageing. Conclusions This James Lind Alliance priority setting partnership is the first to investigate rare bone diseases. The priorities identified here were developed jointly by patients, carers and healthcare professionals. We encourage researchers, funding bodies and other stakeholders to use these priorities in guiding future research for those affected by rare musculoskeletal disorders

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasonography for deep vein thrombosis

Background Ultrasound (US) has largely replaced contrast venography as the definitive diagnostic test for deep vein thrombosis (DVT). We aimed to derive a definitive estimate of the diagnostic accuracy of US for clinically suspected DVT and identify study-level factors that might predict accuracy. Methods We undertook a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of diagnostic cohort studies that compared US to contrast venography in patients with suspected DVT. We searched Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness, the ACP Journal Club, and citation lists (1966 to April 2004). Random effects meta-analysis was used to derive pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Random effects meta-regression was used to identify study-level covariates that predicted diagnostic performance. Results We identified 100 cohorts comparing US to venography in patients with suspected DVT. Overall sensitivity for proximal DVT (95% confidence interval) was 94.2% (93.2 to 95.0), for distal DVT was 63.5% (59.8 to 67.0), and specificity was 93.8% (93.1 to 94.4). Duplex US had pooled sensitivity of 96.5% (95.1 to 97.6) for proximal DVT, 71.2% (64.6 to 77.2) for distal DVT and specificity of 94.0% (92.8 to 95.1). Triplex US had pooled sensitivity of 96.4% (94.4 to 97.1%) for proximal DVT, 75.2% (67.7 to 81.6) for distal DVT and specificity of 94.3% (92.5 to 95.8). Compression US alone had pooled sensitivity of 93.8 % (92.0 to 95.3%) for proximal DVT, 56.8% (49.0 to 66.4) for distal DVT and specificity of 97.8% (97.0 to 98.4). Sensitivity was higher in more recently published studies and in cohorts with higher prevalence of DVT and more proximal DVT, and was lower in cohorts that reported interpretation by a radiologist. Specificity was higher in cohorts that excluded patients with previous DVT. No studies were identified that compared repeat US to venography in all patients. Repeat US appears to have a positive yield of 1.3%, with 89% of these being confirmed by venography. Conclusion Combined colour-doppler US techniques have optimal sensitivity, while compression US has optimal specificity for DVT. However, all estimates are subject to substantial unexplained heterogeneity. The role of repeat scanning is very uncertain and based upon limited data

Beetle (Coleoptera: Scirtidae) Facilitation of Larval Mosquito Growth in Tree Hole Habitats is Linked to Multitrophic Microbial Interactions

Container-breeding mosquitoes, such as Aedes triseriatus, ingest biofilms and filter water column microorganisms directly to obtain the bulk of their nutrition. Scirtid beetles often co-occur with A. triseriatus and may facilitate the production of mosquito adults under low-resource conditions. Using molecular genetic techniques and quantitative assays, we observed changes in the dynamics and composition of bacterial and fungal communities present on leaf detritus and in the water column when scirtid beetles co-occur with A. triseriatus. Data from terminal restriction fragment polymorphism analysis indicated scirtid presence alters the structure of fungal communities in the water column but not leaf-associated fungal communities. Similar changes in leaf and water bacterial communities occurred in response to mosquito presence. In addition, we observed increased processing of leaf detritus, higher leaf-associated enzyme activity, higher bacterial productivity, and higher leaf-associated fungal biomass when scirtid beetles were present. Such shifts suggest beetle feeding facilitates mosquito production indirectly through the microbial community rather than directly through an increase in available fine particulate organic matter

A Key Marine Diazotroph in a Changing Ocean: The Interacting Effects of Temperature, CO2 and Light on the Growth of Trichodesmium erythraeum IMS101

Trichodesmium is a globally important marine diazotroph that accounts for approximately 60-80% of marine biological N2 fixation and as such plays a key role in marine N and C cycles. We undertook a comprehensive assessment of how the growth rate of Trichodesmium erythraeum IMS101 was directly affected by the combined interactions of temperature, pCO2 and light intensity. Our key findings were: low pCO2 affected the lower temperature tolerance limit (Tmin) but had no effect on the optimum temperature (Topt) at which growth was maximal or the maximum temperature tolerance limit (Tmax); low pCO2 had a greater effect on the thermal niche width than low-light; the effect of pCO2 on growth rate was more pronounced at suboptimal temperatures than at supraoptimal temperatures; temperature and light had a stronger effect on the photosynthetic efficiency (Fv/Fm) than did CO2; and at Topt, the maximum growth rate increased with increasing CO2, but the initial slope of the growth-irradiance curve was not affected by CO2. In the context of environmental change, our results suggest that the (i) nutrient replete growth rate of Trichodesmium IMS101 would have been severely limited by low pCO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM), (ii) future increases in pCO2 will increase growth rates in areas where temperature ranges between Tmin to Topt, but will have negligible effect at temperatures between Topt and Tmax, (iii) areal increase of warm surface waters (> 18°C) has allowed the geographic range to increase significantly from the LGM to present and that the range will continue to expand to higher latitudes with continued warming, but (iv) continued global warming may exclude Trichodesmium spp. from some tropical regions by 2100 where temperature exceeds Topt

GMOs: Non-Health Issues

The controversy over genetically modified [GM] organisms is often framed in terms of possible hazards for human health. Articles in a previous volume of this *Encyclopedia* give a general overview of GM crops [@Mulvaney2014] and specifically examine human health [@Nordgard2014] and labeling [@Bruton2014] issues surrounding GM organisms. This article explores several other aspects of the controversy: environmental concerns, political and legal disputes, and the aim of "feeding the world" and promoting food security. Rather than discussing abstract, hypothetical GM organisms, this article explores the consequences of the GM organisms that have actually been deployed in the particular contexts that they have been deployed, on the belief that there is little point in discussing GM organisms in an idealized or context-independent way