Re-discovering Aurelio Peccei's contribution to Futures Studies

AbstractThis work aims to enhance the contribution of Aurelio Peccei to Futures Studies and its unaltered relevance in the light of the world's current scientific issues. Peccei's contribution in Futures Studies is often identified with his propulsive role in the birth of the Club of Rome (1968) and in the promotion of the report "The Limits to Growth" (1972). Although this would be enough to make him a central figure in the history of Futures Studies, his whole intellectual journey is worth emphasizing. This work focuses on the "epistemic impact" of Peccei in the field research on possible futures. Peccei not only argued the fundamental need to translate complexity into a forecasting model: as an ante litteram anticipator, he dedicated his life to seek a development model respecting both the human tendency towards constant evolution and biosphere. A theoretical impact that allowed many fundamental UN initiatives—from the 1987 Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development to the 2015 Report on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—and also helped the development of a forward-looking social research

Uso da regressão quantílica regularizada para predição de mérito genético em suínos quanto a características assimétricas de carcaça

The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of regularized quantile regression (RQR) to predict the genetic merit of pigs for asymmetric carcass traits, compared with the Bayesian lasso (Blasso) method. The genetic data of the traits carcass yield, bacon thickness, and backfat thickness from a F2 population composed of 345 individuals, generated by crossing animals from the Piau breed with those of a commercial breed, were used. RQR was evaluated considering different quantiles (τ = 0.05 to 0.95). The RQR model used to estimate the genetic merit showed accuracies higher than or equal to those obtained by Blasso, for all studies traits. There was an increase of 6.7 and 20.0% in accuracy when the quantiles 0.15 and 0.45 were considered in the evaluation of carcass yield and bacon thickness, respectively. The obtained results are indicative that the regularized quantile regression presents higher accuracy than the Bayesian lasso method for the prediction of the genetic merit of pigs for asymmetric carcass variables.O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o uso da regressão quantílica regularizada (RQR) para predição do mérito genético em suínos quanto a características assimétricas de carcaça, em comparação ao método do lasso bayesiano (Blasso). Foram utilizados dados genéticos das características rendimento de carcaça, espessura de bacon e espessura de toucinho de uma população F2 composta por 345 indivíduos, obtida pelo cruzamento de animais da raça Piau com os de raça comercial. A RQR foi avaliada tendo-se considerado diferentes quantis (τ = 0,05 a 0,95). O modelo de RQR utilizado para estimar o mérito genético apresentou acurácias maiores ou iguais àquelas obtidas pelo Blasso, para todas as características estudadas. Houve incremento de 6,7 e 20,0% na acurácia, quando se consideraram os quantis 0,15 e 0,45 na avaliação do rendimento de carcaça e da espessura de bacon, respectivamente. Os resultados obtidos são indicativos de que a regressão quantílica regularizada apresenta maior acurácia que o método lasso Bayesiano para predição do mérito genético de variáveis assimétricas de carcaça

Food Styles and Well-Being of Italian People: A Contribution from Official Statistics

The work focuses the relationship between well-being and Italian lifestyle related to food, as it emerges from the National Institute of Statistics’ data. The work highlights how the official statistics can help both common citizens and decision-makers to better understand the current state of eating habits in our country. There were used different approaches to data analysis, both using time series analysis about the body mass index distribution and also a gender and generation approach. Multidimensional data analysis – in particular, the dynamic factor analysis – was used to better highlight some possible criticalities related to food habits in Italy and the citizens’ well-being. The results inspired some reflections: first of all, that food habits cannot be only considered a simple life domain. It’s a complex aspect with political implications. Food not only concerns the individual’s well-being: it involves both the society and the environment’s well-being as a whole

Measuring Stability and Change: Methodological Issues in Quality of Life studies

The aim of the paper is to show how the variety of approaches to study social change may result in a challenging complexity for the social scientist, starting from the difficulty of defining the concept of ‘‘change’’ itself and managing it through observed data. This is particularly true in presence of complex phenomena, such as those defining and composing the quality of life. What should be pointed out is that quality of life studies not only are focused on the present time but have also long term perspectives. This represents the link between studies on quality of life and forecasting. When applied to the field of quality of life, the typical logical approach to forecasts, based upon inferential statistics, could reveal its limits. Those limits are related to different aspects: e.g., the forms of relationships between different aspects of the phenomenon, which can be linear and nonlinear; the dimensionality of phenomenon, which can turn out to be very complex; the causality, which could be direct or indirect; the entity of change, which implies the idea that also small change can have great impact; the perspective of observation, which can be internal or external and local or global. Consequently, the study of change related to quality of life needs, in addition to the traditional statistical tools as well as the tradition of social indicators, a different approach. Although the Futures Studies are not a proper science, nevertheless their approach to social research may ensure the requested accuracy of a scientific forecasting process

Use of regularized quantile regression to predict the genetic merit of pigs for asymmetric carcass traits

The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of regularized quantile regression (RQR) to predict the genetic merit of pigs for asymmetric carcass traits, compared with the Bayesian lasso (Blasso) method. The genetic data of the traits carcass yield, bacon thickness, and backfat thickness from a F2 population composed of 345 individuals, generated by crossing animals from the Piau breed with those of a commercial breed, were used. RQR was evaluated considering different quantiles (τ = 0.05 to 0.95). The RQR model used to estimate the genetic merit showed accuracies higher than or equal to those obtained by Blasso, for all studies traits. There was an increase of 6.7 and 20.0% in accuracy when the quantiles 0.15 and 0.45 were considered in the evaluation of carcass yield and bacon thickness, respectively. The obtained results are indicative that the regularized quantile regression presents higher accuracy than the Bayesian lasso method for the prediction of the genetic merit of pigs for asymmetric carcass variables

Influence of Genotype on Endometrial Angiogenesis during Early Pregnancy in Piau and Commercial Line Gilts

This study aimed to evaluate the endometrial angiogenesis of pregnant commercial line and Piau gilts during early pregnancy. We used 27 gilts, divided into three groups according to the type of mating: Commercial (n = 9), commercial line females mated with commercial line males; Cross-mated (n = 9), Piau females mated with commercial line males; and Piau (n = 9), Piau females mated with Piau males. Each group was divided into three subgroups based on gestational age at the time of slaughter (7, 15, and 30 days of pregnancy). Immediately after slaughter, endometrial samples were obtained for histological evaluation and for analysis of the relative transcript abundance (RTA) of angiogenesis-related genes (HIF1α, FGF9, ANG1, TEK, VEGFA, ANGPT1, and ANGPT2). The number of endometrial glands was similar among groups but decreased with gestational age (p p FGF9, HIF1α, TEK, VEGFA, ANGPT1, and ANGPT2 genes. The HIF1α-gene RTA was higher at 7 and 15 days of pregnancy; for TEK and ANGPT1, the RTA was higher at 15 days of pregnancy; and the RTA of VEGFA and ANGPT2 genes were higher at 30 days of pregnancy. The ANG1 RTA was similar for pregnancies in the commercial and Piau groups but was higher (p < 0.05) at 15 days in the Cross-mated group, suggesting an interaction between genotypes. Overall, the pattern found for the RTA of angiogenesis-related genes was similar among the groups in this study, although some phenotypic differences could be noted, such as the highest number of blood vessels being found during early pregnancy of Piau gilts. The results of the gene RTA when crossed with phenotypic data led to conclusions that are conflicting with those reported in the literature. However, noteworthy is that angiogenesis is a complex process in which the balance between stimulatory and inhibitory factors may be related to time