Welphi, procesos parcipativos Delphi em base web

Con autorización del autorEsta charla empieza con una presentación de los errores más comunes en la construcción de un modelo de valores. A continuación, se sugiere cómo evitarlos con el método multicriterio MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). Se dan ejemplos de cómo MACBETH ayuda a comparar opciones y ponderar criterios de evaluación basado sólo en juicios cualitativos de diferencia de valor. El caso Euro-Healthy se presenta para mostrar el desarrollo en la web de un proceso socio-técnico MACBETH que permite la participación de un elevado número de participantes, de manera complementaria o alternativa a conferencias de decisión en grupo.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Qualitative modelling of credit scoring : a case study in banking

Several modelling procedures have been suggested in the literature that aim to help credit granting decisions. Most of these utilize statistical, operational research and artificial intelligence techniques to identify patterns among past applications, in order to enable a more well-informed assessment of risk as well as the automation of credit scoring. For some types of loans, we find that the modelling procedure must permit the consideration of qualitative expert judgements concerning the performance attractiveness of the applications. In this paper, we describe in detail the various steps taken to build such a model in the context of the banking sector, using the MACBETH interactive approach. The model addresses the scoring of medium and long term loans to firms, to enable the multicriteria assignment of each application to a category which may range from rejection to acceptance with different spreads.peer-reviewe

Using MACBETH with the choquet integral fundamentals to model interdependencies between elementary concerns in the context of risk management

Effective risk management typically requires the evaluation of multiple consequences of different sources of risk, and multicriteria value models have been used for that purpose. The value of mitigating a risk impact is often considered by risk managers as dependent on the levels of other impacts, therefore there is a need for procedures to identify and model these interactions within a value measurement framework. The Choquet Integral (CI) has been used for this purpose, and several studies in the performance measurement literature have combined the 2-additive CI operator with the MACBETH approach to model interdependencies in real contexts. In this paper, we propose an alternative procedure to model interdependencies and determine the CI parameters from one single MACBETH global matrix. The procedure is illustrated with the construction of a descriptor of impacts to evaluate the risk impacts at ALSTOM Power. The paper further explains the questioning protocol to apply the proposed procedure, as well as how decision-makers can interpret the CI parameters

Portfolio robustness evaluation: a case study in the electricity sector

Managers continually face the task of allocating resources to projects when there is not enough money to fund them all. Portfolio Robustness Evaluation (PROBE) is a multicriteria decision support system developed to help managers to perform that difficult task. This paper presents a PROBE model, developed for an electricity distribution company, to select the best portfolio of projects, subject to budget constraints for different types of projects and various organisational units in multiple time periods. Projects requiring large-scale investments are analysed separately from the small-scale projects. The robustness of the selected portfolio of large-scale projects is analysed in an iterative process where broader uncertainty ranges are considered for the values of the projects, and also when an environmental impact criterion is added to the evaluation model. First published online: 14 Sep 201

Desirability–doability group judgment framework for the collaborative multicriteria evaluation of public policies

Desirability–doability framework (2 × D) is a novel framework for the collaborative evaluation of public policies. Fundamental objectives and performance indicators are agreed upon in workshops, policies are characterised, and barriers to implementation identified. MACBETH interactive protocols are then applied in decision conferences to elicit qualitative judgments about the desirability of policies, within and across objectives; and about their doability under the expected graveness of barriers on contrasting scenarios. Elicited judgments allow, respectively, to construct a shared multicriteria model measuring the overall desirability of policies; and, to measure their doability. Desirability–doability graphs enable visual interactive classification of policies, with sensitivity/robustness analyses of uncertainties. 2 × D was successfully tested in a real-world urban-health policymaking case to evaluate spatial policies. The main novelty of 2 × D is that it bridges the socio-technical gap, present in OR, between the support required by a complex social decision-making process, and that usually offered by analytic techniques – while keeping modeling theoretically sound and simple

Modelling multicriteria value interactions with Reasoning Maps

Idiographic causal maps are extensively employed in Operational Research to support problem structuring and complex decision making processes. They model means-end or causal discourses as a network of concepts connected by links denoting influence, thus enabling the representation of chains of arguments made by decision-makers. There have been proposals to employ such structures to support the structuring of multicriteria evaluation models, within an additive value measurement framework. However, a drawback of this multi-methodological modelling is the loss of richness of interactions along the means-end chains when evaluating options. This has led to the development of methods that make use of the structure of the map itself to evaluate options, such as the Reasoning Maps method, which employs ordinal scales and ordinal operators for such evaluation. However, despite their potential, Reasoning Maps cannot model explicitly value interactions nor perform a quantitative ranking of options, limiting their applicability and usefulness. In this article we propose extending the Reasoning Maps approach through a multilinear evaluation model structure, built with the MACBETH multicriteria method. The model explicitly captures the value interactions between concepts along the map and employs the MACBETH protocol of questioning to assess the strength of influence for each means-end link. The feasibility of the proposed approach to evaluate options and to deal with multicriteria interactions is tested in a real-world application to support the construction of a population health index

Integração de métodos multicritério na busca da sustentabilidade agrícola para a produção de tomates no município de São José de Ubá-RJ.

Este estudo discute alternativas para os sistemas produtivos da terra no plantio de tomates em São José de Ubá-RJ e as relações de trabalho passíveis de serem colocadas em pratica de forma a promover uma agricultura sustentavel na região, priorizando os aspectos economicos, ambientais e culturais do problema. A introdução da questão cultural aumenta a complexidade da questão, sendo necessário o uso de uma metodologia capaz de lidar com toda a subjetividade envolvida nesse processo de tomada de decisão. O estudo visa contribuir para a conquista de um processo sustentavel na região, estabelecendo um processo de tomada de decisão pautado nas opinioes do agricultor, respeitando principalmente as questões culturais do problema. As características do ambiente de tomada de decisão indicaram o uso de uma combinação de métodos de apoio a decisão multicritério - MACBETH e VIP Analysis - para a seleção da melhor alternativa capaz de possibilitar o alcance dos objetivos propostos

Valuing health states: is the MACBETH approach useful for valuing EQ-5D-3L health states?

Background Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) are a key outcome measure widely used within health technology assessment and health service research studies. QALYs combine quantity and quality of life, with quality of life calculations relying on the value of distinct health states. Such health states’ values capture the preferences of a population and have been typically built through numerical elicitation methods. Evidence points to these value scores being influenced by methods in use and individuals reporting cognitive difficulties in eliciting their preferences. Evidence from other areas has further suggested that individuals may prefer using distinct elicitation techniques and that this preference can be influenced by their numeracy. In this study we explore the use of the MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) non-numerical preference elicitation approach for health states’ evaluation. Methods A new protocol for preference elicitation based on MACBETH (only requiring qualitative judgments) was developed and tested within a web survey format. A sample of the Portuguese general population (n=243) valued 25 EQ-5D-3L health states with the MACBETH protocol and with a variant of the time trade-off (TTO) protocol, for comparison purposes and for understanding respondents’ preference for distinct protocols and differences in inconsistent evaluations. Respondents answered to a short numeracy test, and basic socio-economic information collected. Results Results show that the mean values derived from MACBETH and the TTO variant are strongly correlated; however, there are substantial differences for several health states’ values. Large and similar numbers of logical inconsistencies were found in respondents’ answers with both methods. Participants with higher levels of numeracy according to the test preferred expressing value judgments with MACBETH, while participants with lower levels were mostly indifferent to both methods. Higher correlations between MACBETH and TTO variant evaluations were observed for individuals with higher numeracy. Conclusion Results suggest that it is worth researching the use of non-numerical preference elicitation methods. Numeracy tests more appropriate for preference elicitation when no explicit considerations of uncertainty are made need to be explored and used. Further behavioural research is needed to fully understand the potential for using these methods in distinct settings (e.g. in different evaluation contexts and in face-to-face and non-face-to-face environments), as well as to explore the effect of literacy on assessments and on respondents’ preferences.UID/MULTI/4066/2016info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio