Elecciones y partidos en América Latina en el cambio del ciclo

[EN] Between 2013 and the first quarter of 2017 every Latin American electoral democracy held legislative and, with the exception of Mexico, presidential elections. On the heels of a region-wide swing to the political left, many observers wondered what next might be in store. But it was almost a given that elections remained the only legitimate pathway power in the region during this period. Elections had become institutionalized in Latin America. Hence, the 2013-2017 election cycle granted as good an opportunity as any to take stock of party-system dynamics and representation in the region. This opportunity was not lost on Manuel Alcántara, Daniel Buquet, and María Laura Tagina, editors of Elecciones y partidos en América Latina en el cambio del ciclo (2018, 7).These accomplished scholars compiled twenty chapters spanning all eighteen electoral democracies in Latin America from 2013 to 2017. As stated in their introductory chapter, the book’s goal is to focus on “las transformaciones acaecidas en los respectivos sistemas de partidos a lo largo de las últimas décadas” and the extent to which, “marcaron un punto de inflexión… respecto de su desarrollo previo, o bien confirmaron tendencias preexistentes” (7). To undertake such a massive endeavor, the editors enlisted country experts from the ranks of doctoral students up to some of the most renowned political scientists in the region. The result is an extremely rich collection of essays that helps students of the region appreciate patterns of change within and between countries in the 2013-2017 cycle. My review analyzes three central aspects of the volume: (a) comparative approach; (b) theoretical puzzle; and (c) theoretical-conceptual innovation. Let us consider each in turn

Mind the partisan trust gap: why the 2016 elections are making some Americans worse off

How do we determine whether or not we should trust someone we don’t know? Often we use shortcuts, and party affiliation is one of them. People are less likely to trust someone who is part of a political party they oppose than they are to trust someone who is part of a political party they support – something known as the “partisan trust gap”. Using a multi-country study of partisan trust, Ryan Carlin and Gregory Love find that the more polarized people think their country’s politics are, the wider their partisan trust gap. Such trust gaps are important, as they reduce the ability of elites to reach a compromise and to tackle policy challenges

Outliers of presidential approval: dynamics, levels, and rates

[EN] Presidential approval tends to exhibit the dynamics of honeymoon, decline, and a rebound as elections near. But several presidential administrations and, indeed, some countries themselves, do not conform to this pattern. This introduction to the special issue identifies and classifies outliers to the typical dynamics of approval using a 12-category taxonomy and data on 140 presidential administrations in 18 Latin American countries from the Executive Approval Project 1.0. Contributors to this special issue use this taxonomy to select outlier cases to explain in their respective articles. This combination of cross-national and case-study approaches suggest a more general theory of presidential approval can be constructed by systematically testing new hypotheses generated in this special issue concerning the role of governing style, political communication, security, policy choice, and institutional context

Distrusting Democrats in Latin America: Meanings, Measures, and Tests in Chile and Argentina

By focusing on support for democracy and trust in political institutions, this dissertation makes important contributions to the study of democracy. It develops more refined conceptualizations and measures of both concepts. Using high-quality data demonstrate when and if support for democracy and distrust in political parties can be expected to generate accountability-seeking actions. Connecting these democratic beliefs and attitudes to political actions is crucial to understanding the linkages between mass beliefs and democracy in Latin America

Divided government shields leaders from blame for the economy but affords no quarter in the fight against terrorism

When disaster strikes, governments tend to be held accountable whether it is an economic disaster, such as the recent financial crisis, or a terrorist attack. In new research, Ryan E. Carlin, Gregory J. Love and Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo use data from Latin America to examine the effects of unified and divided government on how citizens ascribe blame when terrorism and negative economic outcomes occur. They find that because the executive shares responsibility with national and international factors for the state of the economy, citizens are more forgiving when government is divided. After terrorist attacks, on the other hand, citizens blame their leaders even if government is divided as they see their leaders as having near sole responsibility for issues of national security

Post-Laser Twin Anemia Polycythemia Sequence: Diagnosis, Management, and Outcome in an International Cohort of 164 Cases.

The aim of this study was to investigate the management and outcome in the post-laser twin anemia polycythemia sequence (TAPS). Data of the international TAPS Registry, collected between 2014 and 2019, were used for this study. The primary outcomes were perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. Secondary outcomes included a risk factor analysis for perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. A total of 164 post-laser TAPS pregnancies were included, of which 92% (151/164) were diagnosed antenatally and 8% (13/164) postnatally. The median number of days between laser for TTTS and detection of TAPS was 14 (IQR: 7-28, range: 1-119). Antenatal management included expectant management in 43% (62/151), intrauterine transfusion with or without partial exchange transfusion in 29% (44/151), repeated laser surgery in 15% (24/151), selective feticide in 7% (11/151), delivery in 6% (9/151), and termination of pregnancy in 1% (1/151). The median gestational age (GA) at birth was 31.7 weeks (IQR: 28.6-33.7; range: 19.0-41.3). The perinatal mortality rate was 25% (83/327) for the total group, 37% (61/164) for donors, and 14% (22/163) for recipients (p < 0.001). Severe neonatal morbidity was detected in 40% (105/263) of the cohort and was similar for donors (43%; 51/118) and recipients (37%; 54/145), p = 0.568. Independent risk factors for spontaneous perinatal mortality were antenatal TAPS Stage 4 (OR = 3.4, 95%CI 1.4-26.0, p = 0.015), TAPS donor status (OR = 4.2, 95%CI 2.1-8.3, p < 0.001), and GA at birth (OR = 0.8, 95%CI 0.7-0.9, p = 0.001). Severe neonatal morbidity was significantly associated with GA at birth (OR = 1.5, 95%CI 1.3-1.7, p < 0.001). In conclusion, post-laser TAPS most often occurs within one month after laser for TTTS, but may develop up to 17 weeks after initial surgery. Management is mostly expectant, but varies greatly, highlighting the lack of consensus on the optimal treatment and heterogeneity of the condition. Perinatal outcome is poor, particularly due to the high rate of perinatal mortality in donor twins

Treatment and outcome of 370 cases with spontaneous or post-laser twin anemia-polycythemia sequence managed in 17 fetal therapy centers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the antenatal management and outcome in a large international cohort of monochorionic twin pregnancies with spontaneous or post-laser twin anemia-polycythemia sequence (TAPS). METHODS: This study analyzed data of monochorionic twin pregnancies diagnosed antenatally with spontaneous or post-laser TAPS in 17 fetal therapy centers, recorded in the TAPS Registry between 2014 and 2019. Antenatal diagnosis of TAPS was based on fetal middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity > 1.5 multiples of the median (MoM) in the TAPS donor and < 1.0 MoM in the TAPS recipient. The following antenatal management groups were defined: expectant management, delivery within 7 days after diagnosis, intrauterine transfusion (IUT) (with or without partial exchange transfusion (PET)), laser surgery and selective feticide. Cases were assigned to the management groups based on the first treatment that was received after diagnosis of TAPS. The primary outcomes were perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. The secondary outcome was diagnosis-to-birth interval. RESULTS: In total, 370 monochorionic twin pregnancies were diagnosed antenatally with TAPS during the study period and included in the study. Of these, 31% (n = 113) were managed expectantly, 30% (n = 110) with laser surgery, 19% (n = 70) with IUT (± PET), 12% (n = 43) with delivery, 8% (n = 30) with selective feticide and 1% (n = 4) underwent termination of pregnancy. Perinatal mortality occurred in 17% (39/225) of pregnancies in the expectant-management group, 18% (38/215) in the laser group, 18% (25/140) in the IUT (± PET) group, 10% (9/86) in the delivery group and in 7% (2/30) of the cotwins in the selective-feticide group. The incidence of severe neonatal morbidity was 49% (41/84) in the delivery group, 46% (56/122) in the IUT (± PET) group, 31% (60/193) in the expectant-management group, 31% (57/182) in the laser-surgery group and 25% (7/28) in the selective-feticide group. Median diagnosis-to-birth interval was longest after selective feticide (10.5 (interquartile range (IQR), 4.2-14.9) weeks), followed by laser surgery (9.7 (IQR, 6.6-12.7) weeks), expectant management (7.8 (IQR, 3.8-14.4) weeks), IUT (± PET) (4.0 (IQR, 2.0-6.9) weeks) and delivery (0.3 (IQR, 0.0-0.5) weeks). Treatment choice for TAPS varied greatly within and between the 17 fetal therapy centers. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal treatment for TAPS differs considerably amongst fetal therapy centers. Perinatal mortality and morbidity were high in all management groups. Prolongation of pregnancy was best achieved by expectant management, treatment by laser surgery or selective feticide. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology

An NLO QCD analysis of inclusive cross-section and jet-production data from the ZEUS experiment

The ZEUS inclusive differential cross-section data from HERA, for charged and neutral current processes taken with e+ and e- beams, together with differential cross-section data on inclusive jet production in e+ p scattering and dijet production in \gamma p scattering, have been used in a new NLO QCD analysis to extract the parton distribution functions of the proton. The input of jet data constrains the gluon and allows an accurate extraction of \alpha_s(M_Z) at NLO; \alpha_s(M_Z) = 0.1183 \pm 0.0028(exp.) \pm 0.0008(model) An additional uncertainty from the choice of scales is estimated as \pm 0.005. This is the first extraction of \alpha_s(M_Z) from HERA data alone.Comment: 37 pages, 14 figures, to be submitted to EPJC. PDFs available at http://durpdg.dur.ac.uk/hepdata in LHAPDFv