Impacts on the Brazilian economy caused by the commercial openness occurred in the 90’s in the textile and clothing sector: a general equilibrium study

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o efeito de uma queda de preços de20% em têxteis e artigos de vestuário, no período entre 1996 e 2007, paralelamenteao aumento das tarifas de importação de 17,8% em artigos de vestuário (políticaimplementada em 2007). Foi utilizado um modelo de equilíbrio geral com baseem dados da matriz insumo-produto de 1996 (IBGE). Observou-se que a Indústriatêxtil foi a mais diretamente penalizada, sobretudo na produção e geração de empregos.A indústria de vestuário vivenciou uma redução de custos de sua principalmatéria-prima, o que, no curto prazo, beneficiou sua produção. Embora no curtoprazo os efeitos para a economia brasileira tenham sido de modo geral benéficos,com o aumento do emprego e do consumo das famílias, no longo prazo, houve quedados salários e do consumo das mesmas. Além disso, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo houve queda do PIB real.The objective of this work was to analyze the effect of a 20% collapse ofprices in textile and clothing products, in the period between 1996 and 2007, parallelto the increasing of the tariffs of importation of 17,8% in clothing products (policy implemented in 2007). A general equilibrium model was used based in data fromthe input-product matrix of 1996 (IBGE). It was observed that the textile industrywas the most directly punished, especially in the production and generation ofemployments. The clothes industry has lived a reduction of costs of its principalraw material, which benefitted its production in the short-run. Although in theshort-run the effects for Brazilian economy have been in general beneficial, withthe increasing of the employment and the consumption of the families, in the longrunthere was a fall of the wages and the consumption of the same ones. Besides,there was fall of real GDP in the short-run as in the long-run

Demand for fisheries products in Brazil

Fish consumption per capita in Brazil is relatively modest when compared to other animal proteins. This study analyses the influence of protein prices, other food prices and population income on the fish demand in Brazil. First, the problem of fish supply in Brazil is characterized. It is followed by reviews of the relevant economic theory and methods of Almost Ideal Demand System - AIDS and their elasticity calculations. A descriptive analysis of fish demand in Brazil using the microdata called "Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar" (Familiar Budget Research) - POF 2002-2003 is presented. Finally, demand functions and their elasticities are calculated for two different cases: one considering five groups of animal proteins (Chicken; Milk and Eggs; Fish; Processed Proteins and Red Meat) and other with seven groups of food categories (Cereals; Vegetables and Fruits; Milky and Eggs; Oils and Condiments; Fish; Other processed foods; and Meats). The main results are: per capita consumption of fish (4.6 kg per inhabitant per year) is low in Brazil because few households consume fish. When only households with fish consumption are considered, the per capita consumption would be higher: 27.2 kg per inhabitant per year. The fish consumption in the North-East Region is concentrated in the low-income class. In the Center-South Region, the fish consumption is lower and concentrated in the intermediate income classes. The main substitutes for fish are the processed proteins and not the traditional types of meat, such as chicken and red meat

Enhancing the Brazilian land use module in Aglink-Cosimo

The primary objective of this report is to document the improvements made to the Brazilian module of the Aglink-Cosimo model (Enciso et. al. 2015) (OECD/FAO, 2015) related to the inclusion of land use dynamics. Aglink-Cosimo is an agricultural partial equilibrium model developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in partnership with some member countries of these organisations. It is a partial equilibrium model used to simulate the annual developments of supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced and traded worldwide over a 10 year period. It is a recursive-dynamic model, since current economic decisions are reached by taking into account lagged information on prices and quantities. Aglink-Cosimo model is a central model to the integrated Modelling Platform for Agro economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) of the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission. Its main objectives are the implementation of quantitative tools for commodity market and agricultural policy analysis, and the preparation of a benchmark for the assessment of agricultural policies in a medium to long-term horizon (so-called 'baseline'). Models in iMAP are used in stand-alone mode or in combination, so as to address a broad range of topics linked to the economic assessment of the agricultural and rural development policies, as well as those concerning related topics such as trade, energy, environment, and climate change. The model improvements to the Brazilian module reported here are important to assess the effects of domestic policy changes on the economic performance of the Brazilian agricultural sector, but also to analyse how agricultural production and land use in Brazil would respond to changes in world market commodity prices . The utilised agricultural area (UAA) in Brazil has increased in recent years, mainly driven by increases in multiple cropping and livestock density on pastureland. Here we propose a methodology to capture the multi cropping aspect of Brazilian agricultural in Aglink-Cosimo and expand the crop coverage of the model to also include pasture land and beans. Moreover, in order to capture the changing livestock density on pastureland, a beef cow intensity function (i.e. cow inventory divided by land use) is estimated using historical data. Last but not least, the movement and allocation of crops within Brazil are discussed in relation to their distance from ports and the associated transport costs. Internal transport costs are included in model as a relative discount to the export price depending on the distance to ports for specific crops. In order to test the behaviour of the revised model, three illustrative scenarios are included in the report. A first scenario focuses on the economic impacts in the Brazilian agricultural sector of an abolishment of the biofuel blending mandates. In a second scenario, the land use effects of an intensification of cattle production in Brazil are analysed. Lastly, a scenario on the reduction of transport costs between the State of Mato Grosso and the port of Santos for agricultural commodities due to better infrastructures is depicted, with a clear focus on balance of trade effects. These scenarios show that the land use response in Brazil is strongly linked to the world market. This is not surprising, since Brazil is an important exporter of agricultural commodities, for instance soybeans and beef. The proposed scenarios also demonstrate the importance of having a complete model like Aglink-Cosimo to analyse direct and indirect land use changes.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Demand for fisheries products in Brazil

Fish consumption per capita in Brazil is relatively modest when compared to other animal proteins. This study analyses the influence of protein prices, other food prices and population income on the fish demand in Brazil. First, the problem of fish supply in Brazil is characterized. It is followed by reviews of the relevant economic theory and methods of Almost Ideal Demand System - AIDS and their elasticity calculations. A descriptive analysis of fish demand in Brazil using the microdata called "Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar" (Familiar Budget Research) - POF 2002-2003 is presented. Finally, demand functions and their elasticities are calculated for two different cases: one considering five groups of animal proteins (Chicken; Milk and Eggs; Fish; Processed Proteins and Red Meat) and other with seven groups of food categories (Cereals; Vegetables and Fruits; Milky and Eggs; Oils and Condiments; Fish; Other processed foods; and Meats). The main results are: per capita consumption of fish (4.6 kg per inhabitant per year) is low in Brazil because few households consume fish. When only households with fish consumption are considered, the per capita consumption would be higher: 27.2 kg per inhabitant per year. The fish consumption in the North-East Region is concentrated in the low-income class. In the Center-South Region, the fish consumption is lower and concentrated in the intermediate income classes. The main substitutes for fish are the processed proteins and not the traditional types of meat, such as chicken and red meat

Economic fundamentals of the formation of the international price of sugar and of the domestic price of ethanol and sugar

A importância de se estudar preços decorre da necessidade de se prever seu comportamento, como instrumento para o planejamento da produção, dos investimentos relacionados aos produtos e para a formulação de políticas que garantam o abastecimento do mercado consumidor. O objetivo principal do presente trabalho foi investigar os fatores que afetam o comportamento dos preços de etanol e açúcar no mercado doméstico e do preço do açúcar no mercado internacional. Em relação ao mercado internacional observou-se que os preços das commodities armazenáveis negociadas mundialmente tendem a apresentar tendências semelhantes, indicando que um conjunto comum de fatores pode estar afetando-os. Na análise do preço internacional do açúcar, consideram-se três ordens de fatores explicativos: (a) o índice geral de preços de commodities CRB/SPOT; (b) macro-fatores como taxa de câmbio e juros, liquidez, renda, etc. e; (c) efeitos de fatores idiossincráticos relacionados ao consumo e produção mundiais do açúcar. Nos casos dos preços domésticos de açúcar e etanol, os fatores explicativos são (a) preço internacional do açúcar, (b) os macro-fatores internacionais e domésticos como taxa de câmbio, juros, renda, etc., (c) fatores idiossincráticos (produtividade, clima, etc.). O período analisado, envolvendo grande parte da primeira década dos anos 2000, foi de forte expansão da liquidez mundial, juros baixos e de crescimento econômico relativamente acelerado. Os preços de commodities em geral, e do açúcar, em especial, experimentaram continuada alta, interrompida somente pela crise de 2008. No período analisado os erros de previsão do modelo empírico do açúcar internacional (baseados no preço do petróleo, do índice CRB e da liquidez) permaneceram praticamente até 30%. A alta do preço em 2005/06 associa-se a alta do petróleo e uma elevação dos juros. Já a forte elevação em 2008/09 parece associar-se além da alta do petróleo - aos baixíssimos juros aplicados durante a crise financeira. Em relação ao mercado doméstico, pode-se dizer que o preço do açúcar no mercado interno pode ser predito com expressiva segurança pela evolução do preço internacional e do câmbio do Real. Os erros de previsão se situam na faixa de 20%. A forte alta de 2002/03 é explicada pela alta mundial das commodities e do câmbio simultaneamente; a de 2005/06 é atribuída principalmente à elevação das commodities nesse período e o aumento de 2008/09 deveu-se à desvalorização cambial. No caso do preço doméstico do etanol, os preços internacional e doméstico do açúcar desempenham razoavelmente a tarefa de previsão, embora os erros cheguem a 40%. Acredita-se que sendo commodity menos transacionada externamente o etanol tenha preços mais sensíveis a fatores idiossincráticos. Contudo, permanece a conclusão geral de que o complexo sucroenergético comporta-se, relativo ao mercado, de forma bastante consistente com os mercados globalizados das commodities.The study of prices is important to predict their behavior as a tool for production planning, for product-related investments and for making decisions to guarantee market supply. The aim of the present study was to investigate the factors that affect the behavior of ethanol in the domestic market and sugar prices in both the domestic and international markets. In the international market, it was observed that prices of storable commodities tend to have similar tendencies, indicating that a combination of similar factors could be affecting them. So three orders of explanatory factors are considered: (a) The general index of prices of commodities CRB/SPOT; (b) macro-factors such as exchange rate, interest rate, liquidity, income, etc. and; (c) effect of idiosyncratic factors related to the world sugar production and consumption. In cases of domestic prices for sugar and ethanol, the explanatory factors are: (a) international price of sugar, (b) international and domestic macro factors such exchange rate, interest rate, income etc., (c) idiosyncratic factors (productivity, climate, etc.). The analyzed period, involving a large part of the start of the 2000, was of strong expansion of global liquidity, low interest rates and relatively rapid economic growth. The prices of commodities in general and especially of sugar remained high and only interrupted by the crisis of 2008. The technique of historical decomposition was applied to interpret the changes observed in the data series. The forecasting errors of the empirical model of international sugar price (based on petroleum price, CRB index and liquidity) remained within the range of up to 30%. The high prices in 2005/06 were associated to high petroleum prices and an increase in interest rates. Also, the strong increase in 2008/09 seems to be associated not only to the high petroleum prices but also to very low interest rates applied during the financial crisis. In relation to the domestic market, the price of sugar was predicted with the international prices and the exchange rate of the Real. The forecasting errors lied in the range of 20%. The strong increase in 2002/03 is explained by high global commodity prices and exchange rates simultaneously, and for 2005/06 is mainly attributed to rising commodity prices, while the increase in 2008/09 was mainly due to currency devaluation. In the case of domestic price of ethanol, the international and domestic prices of sugar performed reasonably well as predictors, although the errors reached up to 40%. It is believed that since ethanol is a commodity that is less traded externally, its prices are more sensitive to idiosyncratic factors. However, the general conclusion remains that the behavior of sugar and ethanol prices in the internal market is quite consistent with global markets for commodities

AVALIAÇÃO DA INDÚSTRIA DE PROCESSAMENTO DE COURO BOVINO EM MINAS GERAIS: ENFOQUE NA ESTRUTURA, CONDUTA E DESEMPENHO

A cadeia agroindustrial da bovinocultura de corte apresenta importância fundamental para a economia brasileira e para o Estado de Minas Gerais, seja pela geração de divisas, renda e emprego ou pela produção de alimentos. Neste estudo, buscou-se analisar especificamente o setor de processamento de couro bovino no enfoque de sua estrutura de mercado, conduta empresarial e desempenho. Com este intuito, foi utilizado o referencial da Teoria da Organização Industrial, com base no Modelo Estrutura-Conduta e Desempenho. Os resultados encontrados indicam que, em relação à estrutura de mercado, o setor é moderadamente concentrado. As condutas empresariais mostram uma tendência de organização do setor, sendo que a maioria das empresas adota estratégias de marketing, realiza treinamento da mão de obra e formaliza contratos com fornecedores e clientes. No entanto, ainda existem sérios problemas relacionados à qualidade da matéria-prima. Comparando-se o desempenho exportador com outros estados, Minas Gerais ainda apresenta parcela pouco significativa neste quesit

A “pequena produção rural” no Brasil e as tendências do desenvolvimento agrário brasileiro

Esse artigo reúne os principais argumentos e conclusões dos artigos que compõem o livro “A pequena produção rural e as tendências do desenvolvimento agrário brasileiro: ganhar tempo é possível”2. Este estudo foi destinado a analisar a “pequena produção” no âmbito do projeto “Sustentação e sustentabilidade da produção de alimentos - o papel do Brasil no cenário global”, coordenado pelo Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE) com o apoio da Embrapa. Alguns dos artigos foram escritos em coautoria e, desta forma, doze destacados pesquisadores, no total, dedicaram-se à investigação de aspectos gerais e, especificamente, da viabilidade econômica e ambiental dos estabelecimentos rurais de menor porte econômico - usualmente chamados de “familiares”. Deliberadamente, não houve equilíbrio na atribuição dos ângulos temáticos entre os autores, selecionando entre uma leitura que privilegiasse o ambiental e outra que enfatizasse o econômico-produtivo e tecnológico. Esse último olhar foi enfatizado e ocupou as preocupações dos autores de seis artigos e, portanto, apenas um deles se dedicou mais especificamente à análise da “Viabilidade ambiental dos pequenos estabelecimentos rurais” - em especial a partir da promulgação da lei número 12.651, de maio de 2012, modificada pela lei número 12.272, aprovada em outubro, a qual estabeleceu um “novo Código Florestal”, cujas implicações são amplamente discutidas no citado artigo do livro. As razões para a desigual distribuição, concentrando os artigos no foco econômico-produtivo, são sucintamente comentadas em algumas partes desse artigo e discutidas com mais profundidade naqueles artigos do livro que refletiram sobre a viabilidade econômica da pequena produção rural

Síntesis del estudio prospectivo: El Cono Sur ante una instancia crucial del desarrollo tecnológico global. Megatendencias, incertidumbres críticas e preguntas claves para el futuro de los sistemas agropecuários y agroalimentarios del Cono Sur

33 páginasSe propuso la realización de un estudio prospectivo regional del sector agropecuario, agroalimentario y agroindustrial con foco en la ciencia, tecnología e innovación. El interés aborda el desarrollo y fortalecimiento de las competencias y capacidades necesarias para incorporar la dimensión de futuro en la planificación y gestión de la política científico-tecnológica de la región; sensibilizar a los tomadores de decisión y a stakeholders internos y externos de los INIA y el PROCISUR durante la capacitación; brindar insumos para la elaboración del nuevo Plan de Mediano Plazo (PMP) 2019-2022 del PROCISUR