A novel two stage approach for causal effect estimation based on predictions of the response variable

The Abstracts Book's website is located at https://sites.google.com/site/emgm2013/EMGM%202013%20Abstract%20Book-5.pdf?attredirects=0Session Risk prediction and complex phenotypes: no. A31Research builds upon pre-existing knowledge by investigating the relationship between novel variables and variables whose inter-relationships are well understood. This scenario can often be described as a complex model of known structure incorporating latent and manifest variables. In parts of the model relating to well understood variables, parameter values might be well estimated as a result of previous research. For the rest of the model the parameters are unknown. The research question can be framed as the estimation of these unknown model parameters. Traditionally this would be add...postprin

Generalised geometry, eleven dimensions and E11

We construct the non-linear realisation of E11 and its first fundamental representation in eleven dimensions at low levels. The fields depend on the usual coordinates of space-time as well as two form and five form coordinates. We derive the terms in the dynamics that contain the three form and six form fields and show that when we restricted their field dependence to be only on the usual space-time we recover the correct self-duality relation. Should this result generalise to the gravity fields then the non-linear realisation is an extension of the maximal supergravity theory, as previously conjectured. We also comment on the connections between the different approaches to generalised geometry.Comment: 17 pages, Trivial typos corrected in version one and a substantial note added which gives the equation of motion relating the gravity field to its dua

Analysis of primary care electronic health record data of people living with hepatitis B virus: infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk associated with socio-economic deprivation

Objectives: We set out to characterise chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the primary care population in England and investigate risk factors for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). // Study design: Retrospective cohort study. // Methods: We identified 8039 individuals with CHB in individuals aged ≥18 years between 1999 and 2019 in the English primary care database QResearch. HCC risk factors were investigated using Cox proportional hazards modelling. // Results: Most of those with a record of CHB were males (60%) of non-White ethnicity (>70%), and a high proportion were in the most deprived Townsend deprivation quintile (44%). Among 7029 individuals with longitudinal data, 161 HCC cases occurred. Increased HCC hazards were significantly associated with male sex (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.92–5.23), in the fifth deprivation quintile as compared to the third quintile (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.01–2.84), with older age (for age groups 56–65 and ≥66 years, compared to 26–35 years, aHRs 2.82 [95% CI 1.45–5.46] and 3.76 [95% CI 1.79–7.9], respectively), Caribbean ethnicity (aHR 3.32, 95% CI 1.43–7.71, compared to White ethnicity), ascites (aHR 3.15, 95% CI 1.30–7.67), cirrhosis (aHR 6.55, 95% CI 4.57–9.38) and peptic ulcer disease (aHR 2.26, 95% CI 1.45–3.51). // Conclusions: Targeting interventions and HCC surveillance at vulnerable groups is essential to improve CHB outcomes and to support progress towards international goals for the elimination of hepatitis infection as a public health threat

Higher derivative type II string effective actions, automorphic forms and E11

By dimensionally reducing the ten-dimensional higher derivative type IIA string theory effective action we place constraints on the automorphic forms that appear in the effective action in lower dimensions. We propose a number of properties of such automorphic forms and consider the prospects that E11 can play a role in the formulation of the higher derivative string theory effective action.Comment: 34 page

IIA/IIB Supergravity and Ten-forms

We perform a careful investigation of which p-form fields can be introduced consistently with the supersymmetry algebra of IIA and/or IIB ten-dimensional supergravity. In particular the ten-forms, also known as "top-forms", require a careful analysis since in this case, as we will show, closure of the supersymmetry algebra at the linear level does not imply closure at the non-linear level. Consequently, some of the (IIA and IIB) ten-form potentials introduced in earlier work of some of us are discarded. At the same time we show that new ten-form potentials, consistent with the full non-linear supersymmetry algebra can be introduced. We give a superspace explanation of our work. All of our results are precisely in line with the predictions of the E(11) algebra.Comment: 17 page

Cost effective assay choice for rare disease study designs

High throughput assays tend to be expensive per subject. Often studies are limited not so much by the number of subjects available as by assay costs, making assay choice a critical issue. We have developed a framework for assay choice that maximises the number of true disease causing mechanisms ‘seen’, given limited resources. Although straightforward, some of the ramifications of our methodology run counter to received wisdom on study design. We illustrate our methodology with examples, and have built a website allowing calculation of quantities of interest to those designing rare disease studies.published_or_final_versio

Identifying the favored mutation in a positive selective sweep.

Most approaches that capture signatures of selective sweeps in population genomics data do not identify the specific mutation favored by selection. We present iSAFE (for "integrated selection of allele favored by evolution"), a method that enables researchers to accurately pinpoint the favored mutation in a large region (∼5 Mbp) by using a statistic derived solely from population genetics signals. iSAFE does not require knowledge of demography, the phenotype under selection, or functional annotations of mutations

Analysis of primary care electronic health record data of people living with hepatitis B virus: infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk associated with socio-economic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: We set out to characterise chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the primary care population in England and investigate risk factors for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We identified 8039 individuals with CHB in individuals aged ≥18 years between 1999 and 2019 in the English primary care database QResearch. HCC risk factors were investigated using Cox proportional hazards modelling. RESULTS: Most of those with a record of CHB were males (60%) of non-White ethnicity (>70%), and a high proportion were in the most deprived Townsend deprivation quintile (44%). Among 7029 individuals with longitudinal data, 161 HCC cases occurred. Increased HCC hazards were significantly associated with male sex (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.92-5.23), in the fifth deprivation quintile as compared to the third quintile (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.01-2.84), with older age (for age groups 56-65 and ≥66 years, compared to 26-35 years, aHRs 2.82 [95% CI 1.45-5.46] and 3.76 [95% CI 1.79-7.9], respectively), Caribbean ethnicity (aHR 3.32, 95% CI 1.43-7.71, compared to White ethnicity), ascites (aHR 3.15, 95% CI 1.30-7.67), cirrhosis (aHR 6.55, 95% CI 4.57-9.38) and peptic ulcer disease (aHR 2.26, 95% CI 1.45-3.51). CONCLUSIONS: Targeting interventions and HCC surveillance at vulnerable groups is essential to improve CHB outcomes and to support progress towards international goals for the elimination of hepatitis infection as a public health threat

Constraints on Automorphic Forms of Higher Derivative Terms from Compactification

By dimensionally reducing the higher derivative corrections of ten-dimensional IIB theory on a torus we deduce constraints on the E_{n+1} automorphic forms that occur in d=10-n dimensions. In particular we argue that these automorphic forms involve the representation of E_{n+1} with fundamental weight \lambda^{n+1}, which is also the representation to which the string charges in d dimensions belong. We also consider a similar calculation for the reduction of higher derivative terms in eleven-dimensional M-theory.Comment: Minor corrections, to appear in JHE