Analyse De L’impact Du Changement De La Couverture Végétale Sur La Pluie Et La Température De Surface Au Sénégal

This work aims at examining the potential impacts of vegetation change (reforestation) of the Sahel-Sahara interface on the intra-seasonal and interannual variability of the rainfall and surface temperature over Senegal using the RegCM4 model. Two runs were performed from 1990 to 2009 with a spatial resolution of 50 km (0.44 °): the standard version of the RegCM4 model (control version) and the reforested one (named RegCM4_REFORESTATION). The impact of the reforestation is to decrease the surface temperature over Senegal in summer (JJAS). This decrease could be partly due to a decrease of the sensible heat flux over the southern and central Senegal and a strong increase of the latent heat flux. The reforestation also tends to increase the rainfall over the whole country and particularly in the Southwest. This rainfall increase which can also create an evaporative cooling, is consistent with the decrease of the surface temperature. The analysis of the annual cycle over three domains of Senegal shows that the reforestation tends to strengthen the low-levels humidity of the atmosphere from January to December especially during the summer period in the North and in the center of the country. The surface temperature presents two maxima in April-May and October-November and a minimum during the summer. The reforestation has a cooling impact during the whole year (particularly in the summer) and over the center and the northern part of Senegal. At the interannual timescale, the reforestation modifies significantly the rainfall by generally increasing it. However, there are years in which this trend is not respected and this translates into a weak correlation coefficient in the South of the country. This rainfall increase may translates into extreme hydroclimatic events such as floods. This work can be considered as a support for the Senegalese policymakers for the better planning of the management of adverse potential effects (such as floods, drought, heat waves, etc) of the Sahel-Sahara greening effort

Evolution Des Indices Pluviométriques Extrêmes Par L'analyse De Modèles Climatiques Régionaux Du Programme CORDEX: Les Projections Climatiques Sur Le Sénégal

This study aims at characterizing the extreme rainfall events over West Africa particularly in the Sahel region and Senegal by 2100 (far future) under the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5 by analyzing the simulations of four (4) regional climate models (RCMs) of CORDEX (Regional COordinated climate Downscaling Experiment) program. The study of these extreme climate indices is crucial for the understanding of the impacts of climate change on some vital socio-economic sectors such as the agriculture in Sahel and Senegal. The results show that almost all the RCMs predict a decrease of the rainfall over most parts of the Sahel region particularly over the Western Sahel. The analysis of the climate indices such as the highest one day precipitation amount, the 99th percentile and the maximum dry spell length (CDD) shows that the RCMs (except CanRCM4) project an increase of these exceptional rainfall events over the Sahel (especially over the Western Sahel) by 2100. In Senegal, the RCMs (except RCA4) agree on a decrease of the precipitation and the number of wet days by 2100. When considering the evolution of rainfall events intensity, the highest one day precipitation amount and the 99th percentile, the RCMs (except CanRCM4) predict an increase of the extreme events which may translate into strong floods in Senegal. As for the dry and wet sequences, the RCMs projections (except those of RCA4) show an increase (respectively a decrease) of the maximum dry spell length (respectively of the maximum wet spell length) in Senegal. This increase in extreme rainfall indices may translate into a strengthening of natural disasters such as floods and drought. This work can be considered as a support for the policymakers in West Africa and particularly in Senegal for the better long-term planning of water resources and disaster management as wells as the build of a resilient agricultural system

The intensification of thermal extremes in west Africa

International audienceThis study aims in filling the gap in understanding the relationship between trend and extreme in diurnal and nocturnal temperatures (Tx and Tn) over the Gulf of Guinea area and the Sahel. Time-evolution and trend of Tx and Tn anomalies, extreme temperatures and heat waves are examined using regional and station-based indices over the 1900–2012 and 1950–2012 periods respectively. In investigating extreme temperature anomalies and heat waves, a percentile method is used. At the regional and local scales, rising trends in Tx and Tn anomalies, which appear more pronounced over the past 60 years, are identified over the two regions. The trends are characterized by an intensification of: i) nocturnal/Tn warming over the second half of the 20th century; and ii) diurnal/Tx warming over the post-1980s. This is the same scheme with extreme warm days and warm nights. Finally annual number of diurnal and nocturnal heat waves has increase over the Gulf of Guinea coastal regions over the second half of the 20th century, and even more substantially over the post-1980s period. Although this trend in extreme warm days and nights is always overestimated in the simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), those models display rising trends whatever the scenario, which are likely to be more and more pronounced over the two regions in the next 50 years

Socializing One Health: an innovative strategy to investigate social and behavioral risks of emerging viral threats

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security

Investigating West African Monsoon Features in Warm Years Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

This study investigates the changes in West African monsoon features during warm years using the Regional Climate Model version 4.5 (RegCM4.5). The analysis uses 30 years of datasets of rainfall, surface temperature and wind parameters (from 1980 to 2009). We performed a simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km with the RegCM4.5 model driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. The rainfall amount is weaker over the Sahel (western and central) and the Guinea region for the warmest years compared to the coldest ones. The analysis of heat fluxes show that the sensible (latent) heat flux is stronger (weaker) during the warmest (coldest) years. When considering the rainfall events, there is a decrease of the number of rainy days over the Guinea Coast (in the South of Cote d’Ivoire, of Ghana and of Benin) and the western and eastern Sahel during warm years. The maximum length of consecutive wet days decreases over the western and eastern Sahel, while the consecutive dry days increase mainly over the Sahel band during the warm years. The percentage of very warm days and warm nights increase mainly over the Sahel domain and the Guinea region. The model also simulates an increase of the warm spell duration index in the whole Sahel domain and over the Guinea Coast in warm years. The analysis of the wind dynamic exhibits during warm years a weakening of the monsoon flow in the lower levels, a strengthening in the magnitude of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in the mid-troposphere and a slight increase of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in the upper levels of the atmosphere during warm years

Effects of Land Cover Changes on Compound Extremes over West Africa Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

This study aims to characterize the impacts of the Sahel–Sahara interface reforestation on compound extremes in the Sahel region during the West African monsoon season (June–July–August–September, JJAS). For this purpose, we performed a simulation with the standard version of the RegCM4 model, and another simulation with the altered version of the same model, taking into account the incorporated forest. Results show that reforestation may strongly influence the frequency of individual extreme events (dry and warm days) by decreasing them over and off the reforested zone. The reduction in these extreme dry and warm days may be due partly to the strengthening of the atmospheric moisture content over most parts of the West African domain and the weakening of the sensible heat flux south of 16° N. The analysis also shows an increase in extreme wet days over and off the reforested zone, which could be associated partly with the strengthening of evapotranspiration over most parts of the West African domain, including the reforested area. The analysis of compound extremes shows a strong occurrence of the compound dry/warm mode over the northern Sahel for both runs, probably due to the weak precipitation recorded in this zone. Both experiments also simulated a strong compound wet/warm mode occurrence over the Sahel due to a high rainfall occurrence over this region. When comparing both runs, the impact of the reforestation was to decrease (increase) the compound extreme dry/warm (wet/warm) mode over the reforested zone. The dry/warm mode decrease is consistent with that of individual extreme dry and warm days, while the compound wet/warm mode increase may be driven by that of the extreme wet days. Finally, when considering the seasonal cycle, the dry/warm mode exhibits a more substantial decrease in the beginning (June–July, JJ) than during the peak of the West African summer monsoon season (August–September, AS). Moreover, reforestation similarly affects the compound wet/warm mode in JJ and AS by increasing it in the reforested region and decreasing it over the Southern Sahel (south of 15° N). This work suggests that reforestation may be a good solution for West African policymakers to mitigate climate change over the region and to develop better strategies for water resource management

African Easterly Waves and Cyclonic Activity over the Eastern Atlantic: Composite and Case Studies

This study aims to understand the main differences over the African continent and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) associated with Atlantic cyclones (developing AEWs) and non-developing AEWs. A statistical study showed that most of the named cyclones generated near the West African coast have a long lifecycle and all are associated with intense AEWs. Using NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, a composite study of the characteristics of developing AEWs is carried out and compared to those of non-developing AEWs. Developing AEWs exhibit the greatest baroclinic and barotropic conversions which are known to be the main processes involved in AEWs growth suggesting that these AEWs are stronger than the non-developing ones. Moreover, the developing AEWs are characterized by the existence of a relatively more unstable environment over West Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. A case study using rawinsonde data showed that the developing AEW is associated with dynamic and thermodynamic conditions conducive for deep convection and subsequent cyclogenesis compared to the non-developing AEW case

STRUCTURE ELECTRONIQUE DES COMPOSES LAMELLAIRES GASE, INSE ET DE LEURS INTERFACES AVEC SI(111) DANS UNE APPROCHE DE LIAISONS FORTES

DANS CE TRAVAIL DE THESE, NOUS AVONS ETUDIE LA STRUCTURE ELECTRONIQUE DES LAMELLAIRES MASSIFS GASE ET INSE AINSI QUE LEURS INTERFACES AVEC SI(111). LES STRUCTURES DE BANDES DES COMPOSES MASSIFS ONT ETE DECRITES EN UTILISANT LA METHODE DES LIAISONS FORTES. LES PARAMETRES D'INTERACTION OU LES ELEMENTS DE LA MATRICE HAMILTONIEN ONT ETE OBTENUS EN AJUSTANT DES VALEURS PROPRES CALCULEES A DES RESULTATS OBTENUS PAR UNE APPROCHE EN PSEUDOPOTENTIELS. POUR OBTENIR UN TRES BON AJUSTEMENT, NOUS AVONS PROCEDE PAR LA MINIMISATION D'UNE FONCTION DES MOINDRES CARRES PAR LA METHODE DES GRADIENTS CONJUGUES. LES RESULTATS OBTENUS PERMETTENT D'ETABLIR DES RELATIONS DE DISPERSION ET DES COURBES DE DENSITES D'ETATS EN ACCORD AVEC LES RESULTATS DE PHOTOEMISSION. LA PHOTOEMISSION INVERSE RESOLUE EN K, RECEMMENT APPLIQUEE A L'ETUDE DE CES LAMELLAIRES FOURNIT DES RESULTATS LIMITES AUXQUELS SE COMPARENT LES NOTRES EN AJOUTANT UNE ORBITALE S* A LA BASE SP 3 DE NOS FONCTIONS D'ONDES ATOMIQUES. NOUS AVONS EXPLIQUE ET DISCUTE LES VARIATIONS DES PARAMETRES D'INTERACTION PAR RAPPORT A LEURS VALEURS INITIALES, DETERMINEES A PARTIR DE LA LOI D'ECHELLE, EN CONSIDERANT LA SYMETRIE DES LAMELLAIRES ETUDIES. L'ETUDE DES HETEROSTRUCTURES GASE/SI(111) ET INSE/SI(111) A ETE FAITE AVEC LES PARAMETRES OBTENUS POUR LES COMPOSES MASSIFS. LES OFFSETS ONT ETE DETERMINES PAR UNE PROCEDURE SIMPLE QUI REPOSE SUR LA CONDITION DE CHARGE NEUTRE POUR CHAQUE HETEROJONCTION. CETTE METHODE QUI INTEGRE PARFAITEMENT LES MODIFICATIONS S'OPERANT A L'INTERFACE, NOTAMMENT LES TRANSFERTS DE CHARGES, A DONNE DES RESULTATS EN TRES BON ACCORD AVEC L'EXPERIENCE. NOUS AVONS AINSI MONTRE QUE LE RESULTAT NE DEPEND PAS DU POLYTYPE DEPOSE SUR LE SUBSTRAT ET QUE L'INTERFACE INSE/SI POUVAIT ETRE SIMULEE SUR LA BASE DES DONNEES CRISTALLOGRAPHIQUES DE GASE/SI QUI A ETE ETUDIEE EN ONDES X STATIONNAIRES.PARIS-BIUSJ-Thèses (751052125) / SudocCentre Technique Livre Ens. Sup. (774682301) / SudocPARIS-BIUSJ-Physique recherche (751052113) / SudocSudocFranceF

Impacts of the Sahel-Sahara Interface Reforestation on West African Climate: Intraseasonal Variability and Extreme Precipitation Events

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the Sahel-Sahara interface reforestation on spatiotemporal variability of the summer rainfall and extreme precipitation events over West Africa using the RegCM4 model. The land surface scheme of RegCM4 was modified to incorporate an East-West reforested zone (15°N and 20°N). Two runs were performed using the standard version of RegCM4 and the modified one of the same model taking into account the incorporated forest. The reforestation significantly modifies rainfall signal over West Africa by increasing it over the reforested zone and the Fouta Jallon highlands (FJH). This rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the atmospheric moisture over the reforested area. This atmospheric moisture content increase associated with the wind dynamic may explain the spatiotemporal change of the rainfall and extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the impacts of the reforestation on some rainfall indices shows an increase of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles over the reforested zone and off the FJH. This reforestation also causes an increase of the maximum length of the consecutive wet days over and off FJH and a decrease of the maximum length of the consecutive dry days over the northern Sahel and the reforested zone