Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap

The aim of the paper is to estimate a reliable quarterly time-series of potential output for the Italian economy, exploiting four alternative approaches: a Bayesian unobserved component method, a univariate time-varying autoregressive model, a production function approach and a structural VAR. Based on a wide range of evaluation criteria, all methods generate output gaps that accurately describe the Italian business cycle over the past three decades. All output gap measures are subject to non-negligible revisions when new data become available. Nonetheless they still prove to be informative about the current cyclical phase and, unlike the evidence reported in most of the literature, helpful at predicting inflation compared with simple benchmarks. We assess also the performance of output gap estimates obtained by combining the four original indicators, using either equal weights or Bayesian averaging, showing that the resulting measures (i) are less sensitive to revisions; (ii) are at least as good as the originals at tracking business cycle fluctuations; (iii) are more accurate as inflation predictors.potential output, business cycle, Phillips curve, output gap

Do parents favour boys? Evidence from schooling in Guinea- Bissau

This study is conducted in the Capital of Guinea-Bissau. The research analyzes gender bias in education on ethnicity, religion and income. An exogenous shock at household level on food security is used for income. OLS and Fixed Effect models are estimated among four different age groups. Findings show the absence of gender gap in primary education, however opposite results emerge for older girls. The hypothesis behind this difference is the extension of compulsory education from 6th to 9th grade which is supported by the findings. The main conclusions shed light to the role of formal Institutions in correcting gender bias

TIME-SERIES MODELS WITH AN EGB2 CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION

A time series model in which the signal is buried in noise that is non-Gaussian may throw up observations that, when judged by the Gaussian yardstick, are outliers. We describe an observation driven model, based on an exponential generalized beta distribution of the second kind (EGB2), in which the signal is a linear function of past values of the score of the conditional distribution. This specification produces a model that is not only easy to implement, but which also facilitates the development of a comprehensive and relatively straight forward theory for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Score driven models of this kind can also be based on conditional t-distributions, but whereas these models carry out what, in the robustness literature, is called a soft form of trimming, the EGB2 distribution leads to a soft form of Winsorizing. An EGARCH model based on the EGB2 distribution is also developed. This model complements the score driven EGARCH model with a conditional t-distribution. Finally dynamic location and scale models are combined and applied to data on the UK rate of inflation.This version is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jtsa.12081/full

Colour and appearance in the cognitive construction of the visual world

En la categoría de “apariencia” se suelen englobar todos los atributos que permiten que, a partir de estímulos luminosos procesados por el sistema visual, sea posible aprehender y conocer aspectos del mundo externo que, tal como es percibido, resulta un constructo de los sistemas sensoriales y del cerebro. La visión comprende no solo el ojo y sus partes constitutivas, sino también el sistema nervioso que conecta la retina con la zona del cerebro encargada de procesar estímulos visuales. La apariencia visual, las imágenes o signos visuales son resultado de un procesamiento complejo. A partir de la información luminosa primaria (cromaticidad e intensidad de la luz), el sistema visual construye percepciones más elaboradas, tales como las categorías de forma, dirección, textura, movimiento, brillo, cualidad de mate, transparencia, opacidad, etc. Este artículo desarrolla algunos de estos conceptos y los encuadra desde una perspectiva semiótica, considerándolos signos visuales.The category of appearance usually includes all the attributes that allow us to, based on luminous stimuli processed by the central nervous system, apprehend and learn aspects of the external world that, just as it is perceived, become a construction of the sensory systems and the brain. Vision includes not only the eye and its constitutive parts, but also the nervous system connecting the retina to the area in the brain where visual stimuli are processed. Visual appearance, images or visual signs are a result of a complex processing. Starting from primary luminous information (chromaticity and light intensity), the visual system builds more elaborate perceptions, such as categories of shape, direction, texture, movement, shine, matte quality, transparency, opacity, etc. This article expounds on some of these concepts within a semiotic perspective, considering them visual signs.Fil: Caivano, Jose Luis Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Two EGARCH models and one fat tail

We compare two EGARCH models which belong to a new class of models in which the dynamics are driven by the score of the conditional distribution of the observations. Models of this kind are called dynamic conditional score (DCS) models and their form facilitates the development of a comprehensive and relatively straightforward theory for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. The EGB2 distribution is light-tailed, but with higher kurtosis than the normal. Hence it is complementary to the fat-tailed t. The EGB2-EGARCH model gives a good fit to many exchange rate return series, prompting an investigation into the misleading conclusions liable to be drawn from tail index estimates

Two EGARCH models and one fat tail

We compare two EGARCH models which belong to a new class of models in which the dynamics are driven by the score of the conditional distribution of the observations. Models of this kind are called dynamic conditional score (DCS) models and their form facilitates the development of a comprehensive and relatively straightforward theory for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. The EGB2 distribution is light-tailed, but with higher kurtosis than the normal. Hence it is complementary to the fat-tailed t. The EGB2-EGARCH model gives a good fit to many exchange rate return series, prompting an investigation into the misleading conclusions liable to be drawn from tail index estimates

A simplified balance sheet to estimate apparent use of meat, crops and dairy products at EU Member State level

In order to provide modellers of the iMAP platform with a shared reference data source, the JRC and DG AGRI agreed to construct and publish a new dataset containing calculations on the apparent use of several agricultural commodities (cereals, oilseeds, dairy products and meat) to provide an approximation of their use at Member State level. This last indicator cannot be calculated because of the lack of information on stocks and the various uses of products disaggregated at Member State level. This new dataset also incorporates a calculation of GIP for animals, obtained as the net production plus the trade balance of live animals. In the context of the public release of the dataset, this report aims to explain to users how to access this data, what the data structure is, which data sources are used, and what the methodology behind the dataset’s construction is with the main processes used to implement this methodology for assuring users of an accurate regular update. Particular attention is paid to the explanation of the limitations of the methodology.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Eficiência comparada do cultivo de juvenis de vieira Nodipecten nodosus (Linnaeus, 1758) em diferentes densidades e profundidades

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Ciências Agrárias. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Aquicultur

Índice de qualidade da dieta para escolhas alimentares saudáveis

OBJECTIVE: To present a Diet Quality Index proper for dietary intake studies of Brazilian adults. METHODS: A diet quality index to analyze the incorporation of healthy food choices was associated with a digital food guide. This index includes moderation components, destined to indicate foods that may represent a risk when in excess, and adequacy components that include sources of nutrients and bioactive compounds in order to help individuals meet their nutritional requirements. The diet quality index-digital food guide performance was measured by determining its psychometric properties, namely content and construct validity, as well as internal consistency. RESULTS: The moderation and adequacy components correlated weakly with dietary energy (-0.16 to 0.09). The strongest correlation (0.52) occurred between the component 'sugars and sweets' and the total score. The Cronbach's coefficient alpha for reliability was 0.36. CONCLUSION: Given that diet quality is a complex and multidimensional construct, the Diet Quality Index-Digital Food Guide, whose validity is comparable to those of other indices, is a useful resource for Brazilian dietary studies. However, new studies can provide additional information to improve its reliability.OBJETIVO: Apresentar um Índice de Qualidade da Dieta com aplicação para estudos de ingestão alimentar de brasileiros adultos. MÉTODOS: Para analisar a incorporação de escolhas alimentares saudáveis desenvolveu-se o Índice de Qualidade da Dieta associado a um Guia Alimentar Digital. Este Índice é constituído por componentes de moderação, destinados a indicar alimentos fonte de compostos associados a risco quando em excesso, e componentes de adequação, que incluem alimentos fonte de nutrientes e compostos bioativos de forma a atender às recomendações nutricionais. A avaliação de desempenho do Índice de Qualidade da Dieta associado a um Guia Alimentar Digital foi medida a partir de suas propriedades psicométricas para validação de conteúdo, construto e consistência interna. RESULTADOS: Os valores de correlação entre os componentes de moderação e de adequação em relação à energia da dieta foram fracos (-0,16 a 0,09); a mais alta correlação (0,52) ocorreu entre o componente açúcares e doces e a pontuação total; a confiabilidade apresentou α=0,36. CONCLUSÃO: Sabendo-se que a qualidade da dieta é uma construção complexa e multidimensional, o Índice de Qualidade da Dieta associado a um Guia Alimentar Digital é um recurso com validade compatível à observada para outros Índices e que pode contribuir para estudos de ingestão alimentar na população brasileira. Contudo, novos estudos devem promover ajustes para aprimorar a confiabilidade do instrumento.Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Instituto Saúde e Sociedade Programa de Pós-Graduação Interdisciplinar em Ciências da SaúdeUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Instituto Saúde e Sociedade Departamento de Políticas Públicas e Saúde ColetivaUNIFESP, Instituto Saúde e Sociedade Programa de Pós-Graduação Interdisciplinar em Ciências da SaúdeUNIFESP, Instituto Saúde e Sociedade Depto. de Políticas Públicas e Saúde ColetivaSciEL