The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Covid-19 has predominantly affected mortality at high ages. It kills by inflaming and clogging the air sacs in the lungs, depriving the body of oxygen ‒ inducing hypoxia ‒ which closes down essential organs, in particular the heart, kidneys and liver, and causes blood clots (which can lead to stroke or pulmonary embolism) and neurological malfunction. Evidence from different countries points to the fact that people who die from Covid-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. This is true for England & Wales – the two countries we focus on in this study. The implication is that the years of life lost through early death are less than the average for each age group, with how much less being a source of considerable debate. We argue that many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. We demonstrate how to capture this link to poorer-than-average health using a model in which individual deaths are ‘accelerated’ ahead of schedule due to Covid-19. The model structure and its parameterization build on the observation that Covid-19 mortality by age is approximately proportional to all-cause mortality. This, in combination with current predictions of total deaths, results in the important conclusion that, everything else being equal, the impact of Covid-19 on the mortality rates of the surviving population will be very modest. Specifically, the degree of anti-selection is likely to be very small, since the life expectancy of survivors does not increase by a significant amount over pre-pandemic levels. We also analyze the degree to which Covid-19 mortality varies with socio-economic status. Headline statistics suggest that the most deprived groups have been disproportionately affected by Covid-19. However, once we control for regional differences in mortality rates, Covid-19 deaths in both the most and least deprived groups are also proportional to the all-cause mortality of these groups. However, the groups in between have approximately 10-15% lower Covid-19 deaths compared with their all-cause mortality. We argue that useful lessons about the potential pattern of accelerated deaths from Covid-19 can be drawn from examining deaths from respiratory diseases, especially at different age ranges. We also argue that it is possible to draw useful lessons about volatility spikes in Covid-19 deaths from examining past seasonal flu epidemics. However, there is an important difference. Whereas the spikes in seasonal flu increase with age, our finding that Covid-19 death rates are approximately proportional to all-cause mortality suggests that any spike in Covid-19 mortality in percentage terms would be similar across all age ranges. Finally, we discuss some of the indirect consequences for future mortality of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ measures governments have imposed to contain it. For example, there is evidence that some surviving patients at all ages who needed intensive care could end up with a new impairment, such as organ damage, which will reduce their life expectancy. There is also evidence that many people in lockdown did not seek a timely medical assessment for a potential new illness, such as cancer, or deferred seeking treatment for an existing serious illness, with the consequence that non-Covid-19-related mortality rates could increase in future. Self-isolation during lockdown has contributed to an increase in alcohol and drug consumption by some people which might, in turn, reduce their life expectancy. If another consequence of the pandemic is a recession and/or an acceleration in job automation, resulting in long-term unemployment, then this could lead to so-called ‘deaths of despair’ in future. Other people, by contrast, might permanently change their social behaviour or seek treatments that delay the impact or onset of age-related diseases, one of the primary factors that make people more susceptible to the virus – both of which could have the effect of increasing their life expectancy. It is, however, too early to quantify these possibilities, although it is conceivable that these indirect consequences could have a bigger impact on future average life expectancy than the direct consequences measured by the accelerated deaths model

Contextualising participation in a transition society

This special issue of Studies of Transition States and Societies closes with a concluding discussion that aims to contextualise some of the key findings from the preceding articles. To do so, we use comparative level evidence drawn from other regions included in the MYPLACE consortium, identifyng contrasts and commonalities in how youth politics is practiced across different European regions. The basic approach is one of assessing the extent to which patterns of participation in Estonia diverge from activism elsewhere, thus locating Estonian youth within a broader analytical framework.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Introduction: youth political participation in a transition society

This special issue of Studies of Transition States and Societies focuses on youth political participation in Estonia. The articles explore different dimensions of participation, providing examples of how politics is practiced by young people in a society that has undergone a relatively recent and substantial social, economic and political transformation: the shift from being an integral part of the Soviet Union to full membership of the European Union. This transition is reflected in changing patterns of activism among Estonian youth and the nature of the issues with which they engage, with participation influenced by, one the one hand, the legacies of the communist period and, on the other, the challenge of living in contemporary Europe. While rooted in established theoretical frameworks, this discussion is informed by a strong empirical evidence base. We concentrate on discussing fi ndings from a recently completed European Commission funded study entitled Memory, Youth, Political Legacy and Civic Engagement (MYPLACE). As its title suggests, this four-year project, conducted during 2011-2015, looked at youth political activism and civic engagement, integrating research teams from 14 diff erent regional contexts across Europe, including Estonia. While the contributions that follow concentrate on the Estonian context, a closing article refl ects on the meaning of our results within the broader framework of European society, building on the work of our international colleagues. We begin, however, in this introduction with an outline of what we regard as some of the key theoretical perspectives on political participation and signifi cant features of our Estonian research context.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A quantitative study of the neuropathology of 32 sporadic and familial cases of frontotemporal lobar degeneration with TDP-43 proteinopathy (FTLD-TDP)

To further characterize the neuropathology of the heterogeneous molecular disorder frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) with transactive response (TAR) DNA-binding protein of 43 kDa (TDP-43) proteinopathy (FTLD-TDP)

Retrieval of Volcanic and Man-Made Stratospheric Aerosols from Orbital Polarimetric Measurements

Stratospheric aerosols that are caused by a major volcanic eruption can serve as a valuable test of global climate models, as well as severely complicate tropospheric-aerosol monitoring from space. In either case, it is highly desirable to have accurate global information on the optical thickness, size, and composition of volcanic aerosols. We report sensitivity study results, which analyze the implications of making precise multi-angle photopolarimetric measurements in a 1.378-m spectral channel residing within a strong water-vapor absorption band. We demonstrate that, under favorable conditions, such measurements would enable near-perfect retrievals of the optical thickness, effective radius, and refractive index of stratospheric aerosols. Besides enabling accurate retrievals of volcanic aerosols, such measurements can also be used to monitor man-made particulates injected in the stratosphere for geoengineering purposes

Constitutional Change and the Private Sector: The Case of the Resource Amendment

The 1982 resource amendment to the Constitution, section 92A, has been analysed primarily from the perspective of its impact on intergovernmental relations in the formation of resource policies Yet the fundamental, constitutional \u27rules of the game\u27 may also affect the ongoing relationship between governments and private-sector resource participants In this article, the authors discuss how section 92A might affect that relationship in terms both of the policy-making process and of the substance of the resultant policie

The Resource Amendment (Section 92A) and the Political Economy of Canadian Federalism

The 1982 resource amendment to the Constitution, section 92A, purports to alter the balance of federal-provincial legislative powers in relation to natural resources. Section 92A was enacted into the Constitution largely as a result of the federal-provincial resource conflicts of the 1970\u27s and early 1980\u27s; conflicts in which the chief antagonists were the federal government and the governments of the Western provinces. In this article, the authors discuss the development of section 92A from its roots in the conflicts of the 1970\u27s, and explore section 92A\u27s possible legal, political and economic effects on the inter-governmental framework for managing Canadian resources and on the resolution of any future federal-provincial conflicts over resources

The Resource Amendment (Section 92A) and the Political Economy of Canadian Federalism

The 1982 resource amendment to the Constitution, section 92A, purports to alter the balance of federal-provincial legislative powers in relation to natural resources. Section 92A was enacted into the Constitution largely as a result of the federal-provincial resource conflicts of the 1970\u27s and early 1980\u27s; conflicts in which the chief antagonists were the federal government and the governments of the Western provinces. In this article, the authors discuss the development of section 92A from its roots in the conflicts of the 1970\u27s, and explore section 92A\u27s possible legal, political and economic effects on the inter-governmental framework for managing Canadian resources and on the resolution of any future federal-provincial conflicts over resources

A New Look at Mode Conversion in a Stratified Isothermal Atmosphere

Recent numerical investigations of wave propagation near coronal magnetic null points (McLaughlin and Hood: Astron. Astrophys. 459, 641,2006) have indicated how a fast MHD wave partially converts into a slow MHD wave as the disturbance passes from a low-beta plasma to a high-beta plasma. This is a complex process and a clear understanding of the conversion mechanism requires the detailed investigation of a simpler model. An investigation of mode conversion in a stratified, isothermal atmosphere, with a uniform, vertical magnetic field is carried out, both numerically and analytically. In contrast to previous investigations of upward-propagating waves (Zhugzhda and Dzhalilov: Astron. Astrophys. 112, 16, 1982a; Cally: Astrophys. J. 548, 473, 2001), this paper studies the downward propagation of waves from a low-beta to high-beta environment. A simple expression for the amplitude of the transmitted wave is compared with the numerical solution.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

Numerical simulation of unconstrained cyclotron resonant maser emission

When a mainly rectilinear electron beam is subject to significant magnetic compression, conservation of magnetic moment results in the formation of a horseshoe shaped velocity distribution. It has been shown that such a distribution is unstable to cyclotron emission and may be responsible for the generation of Auroral Kilometric Radiation (AKR) an intense rf emission sourced at high altitudes in the terrestrial auroral magnetosphere. PiC code simulations have been undertaken to investigate the dynamics of the cyclotron emission process in the absence of cavity boundaries with particular consideration of the spatial growth rate, spectral output and rf conversion efficiency. Computations reveal that a well-defined cyclotron emission process occurs albeit with a low spatial growth rate compared to waveguide bounded simulations. The rf output is near perpendicular to the electron beam with a slight backward-wave character reflected in the spectral output with a well defined peak at 2.68GHz, just below the relativistic electron cyclotron frequency. The corresponding rf conversion efficiency of 1.1% is comparable to waveguide bounded simulations and consistent with the predictions of kinetic theory that suggest efficient, spectrally well defined radiation emission can be obtained from an electron horseshoe distribution in the absence of radiation boundaries.Publisher PD