Evolutionary Game Theory and Social Learning Can Determine How Vaccine Scares Unfold

Immunization programs have often been impeded by vaccine scares, as evidenced by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) autism vaccine scare in Britain. A “free rider” effect may be partly responsible: vaccine-generated herd immunity can reduce disease incidence to such low levels that real or imagined vaccine risks appear large in comparison, causing individuals to cease vaccinating. This implies a feedback loop between disease prevalence and strategic individual vaccinating behavior. Here, we analyze a model based on evolutionary game theory that captures this feedback in the context of vaccine scares, and that also includes social learning. Vaccine risk perception evolves over time according to an exogenously imposed curve. We test the model against vaccine coverage data and disease incidence data from two vaccine scares in England & Wales: the whole cell pertussis vaccine scare and the MMR vaccine scare. The model fits vaccine coverage data from both vaccine scares relatively well. Moreover, the model can explain the vaccine coverage data more parsimoniously than most competing models without social learning and/or feedback (hence, adding social learning and feedback to a vaccine scare model improves model fit with little or no parsimony penalty). Under some circumstances, the model can predict future vaccine coverage and disease incidence—up to 10 years in advance in the case of pertussis—including specific qualitative features of the dynamics, such as future incidence peaks and undulations in vaccine coverage due to the population's response to changing disease incidence. Vaccine scares could become more common as eradication goals are approached for more vaccine-preventable diseases. Such models could help us predict how vaccine scares might unfold and assist mitigation efforts

Evidence of Endemic Hendra Virus Infection in Flying-Foxes (Pteropus conspicillatus)—Implications for Disease Risk Management

This study investigated the seroepidemiology of Hendra virus in a spectacled flying-fox (Pteropus conspicillatus) population in northern Australia, near the location of an equine and associated human Hendra virus infection in late 2004. The pattern of infection in the population was investigated using a serial cross-sectional serological study over a 25-month period, with blood sampled from 521 individuals over six sampling sessions. Antibody titres to the virus were determined by virus neutralisation test. In contrast to the expected episodic infection pattern, we observed that seroprevalence gradually increased over the two years suggesting infection was endemic in the population over the study period. Our results suggested age, pregnancy and lactation were significant risk factors for a detectable neutralizing antibody response. Antibody titres were significantly higher in females than males, with the highest titres occurring in pregnant animals. Temporal variation in antibody titres suggests that herd immunity to the virus may wax and wane on a seasonal basis. These findings support an endemic infection pattern of henipaviruses in bat populations suggesting their infection dynamics may differ significantly from the acute, self limiting episodic pattern observed with related viruses (e.g. measles virus, phocine distemper virus, rinderpest virus) hence requiring a much smaller critical host population size to sustain the virus. These findings help inform predictive modelling of henipavirus infection in bat populations, and indicate that the life cycle of the reservoir species should be taken into account when developing risk management strategies for henipaviruses

Evidence of Endemic Hendra Virus Infection in Flying-Foxes (Pteropus conspicillatus)—Implications for Disease Risk Management

This study investigated the seroepidemiology of Hendra virus in a spectacled flying-fox (Pteropus conspicillatus) population in northern Australia, near the location of an equine and associated human Hendra virus infection in late 2004. The pattern of infection in the population was investigated using a serial cross-sectional serological study over a 25-month period, with blood sampled from 521 individuals over six sampling sessions. Antibody titres to the virus were determined by virus neutralisation test. In contrast to the expected episodic infection pattern, we observed that seroprevalence gradually increased over the two years suggesting infection was endemic in the population over the study period. Our results suggested age, pregnancy and lactation were significant risk factors for a detectable neutralizing antibody response. Antibody titres were significantly higher in females than males, with the highest titres occurring in pregnant animals. Temporal variation in antibody titres suggests that herd immunity to the virus may wax and wane on a seasonal basis. These findings support an endemic infection pattern of henipaviruses in bat populations suggesting their infection dynamics may differ significantly from the acute, self limiting episodic pattern observed with related viruses (e.g. measles virus, phocine distemper virus, rinderpest virus) hence requiring a much smaller critical host population size to sustain the virus. These findings help inform predictive modelling of henipavirus infection in bat populations, and indicate that the life cycle of the reservoir species should be taken into account when developing risk management strategies for henipaviruses

Persistence of Environmental DNA in Freshwater Ecosystems

The precise knowledge of species distribution is a key step in conservation biology. However, species detection can be extremely difficult in many environments, specific life stages and in populations at very low density. The aim of this study was to improve the knowledge on DNA persistence in water in order to confirm the presence of the focus species in freshwater ecosystems. Aquatic vertebrates (fish: Siberian sturgeon and amphibian: Bullfrog tadpoles) were used as target species. In control conditions (tanks) and in the field (ponds), the DNA detectability decreases with time after the removal of the species source of DNA. DNA was detectable for less than one month in both conditions. The density of individuals also influences the dynamics of DNA detectability in water samples. The dynamics of detectability reflects the persistence of DNA fragments in freshwater ecosystems. The short time persistence of detectable amounts of DNA opens perspectives in conservation biology, by allowing access to the presence or absence of species e.g. rare, secretive, potentially invasive, or at low density. This knowledge of DNA persistence will greatly influence planning of biodiversity inventories and biosecurity surveys

Cues for Early Social Skills: Direct Gaze Modulates Newborns' Recognition of Talking Faces

Previous studies showed that, from birth, speech and eye gaze are two important cues in guiding early face processing and social cognition. These studies tested the role of each cue independently; however, infants normally perceive speech and eye gaze together. Using a familiarization-test procedure, we first familiarized newborn infants (n = 24) with videos of unfamiliar talking faces with either direct gaze or averted gaze. Newborns were then tested with photographs of the previously seen face and of a new one. The newborns looked longer at the face that previously talked to them, but only in the direct gaze condition. These results highlight the importance of both speech and eye gaze as socio-communicative cues by which infants identify others. They suggest that gaze and infant-directed speech, experienced together, are powerful cues for the development of early social skills

Nanomechanical properties of α-synuclein amyloid fibrils: a comparative study by nanoindentation, harmonic force microscopy, and Peakforce QNM

We report on the use of three different atomic force spectroscopy modalities to determine the nanomechanical properties of amyloid fibrils of the human α-synuclein protein. α-Synuclein forms fibrillar nanostructures of approximately 10 nm diameter and lengths ranging from 100 nm to several microns, which have been associated with Parkinson's disease. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) has been used to image the morphology of these protein fibrils deposited on a flat surface. For nanomechanical measurements, we used single-point nanoindentation, in which the AFM tip as the indenter is moved vertically to the fibril surface and back while the force is being recorded. We also used two recently developed AFM surface property mapping techniques: Harmonic force microscopy (HarmoniX) and Peakforce QNM. These modalities allow extraction of mechanical parameters of the surface with a lateral resolution and speed comparable to tapping-mode AFM imaging. Based on this phenomenological study, the elastic moduli of the α-synuclein fibrils determined using these three different modalities are within the range 1.3-2.1 GPa. We discuss the relative merits of these three methods for the determination of the elastic properties of protein fibrils, particularly considering the differences and difficulties of each method

Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (∼45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation

Comparison of geometric morphometric outline methods in the discrimination of age-related differences in feather shape

BACKGROUND: Geometric morphometric methods of capturing information about curves or outlines of organismal structures may be used in conjunction with canonical variates analysis (CVA) to assign specimens to groups or populations based on their shapes. This methodological paper examines approaches to optimizing the classification of specimens based on their outlines. This study examines the performance of four approaches to the mathematical representation of outlines and two different approaches to curve measurement as applied to a collection of feather outlines. A new approach to the dimension reduction necessary to carry out a CVA on this type of outline data with modest sample sizes is also presented, and its performance is compared to two other approaches to dimension reduction. RESULTS: Two semi-landmark-based methods, bending energy alignment and perpendicular projection, are shown to produce roughly equal rates of classification, as do elliptical Fourier methods and the extended eigenshape method of outline measurement. Rates of classification were not highly dependent on the number of points used to represent a curve or the manner in which those points were acquired. The new approach to dimensionality reduction, which utilizes a variable number of principal component (PC) axes, produced higher cross-validation assignment rates than either the standard approach of using a fixed number of PC axes or a partial least squares method. CONCLUSION: Classification of specimens based on feather shape was not highly dependent of the details of the method used to capture shape information. The choice of dimensionality reduction approach was more of a factor, and the cross validation rate of assignment may be optimized using the variable number of PC axes method presented herein

Ep-CAM expression in squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus: a potential therapeutic target and prognostic marker

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the expression and test the clinical significance of the epithelial cellular adhesion molecule (Ep-CAM) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) to check the suitability of esophageal SCC patients for Ep-CAM directed targeted therapies. METHODS: The Ep-CAM expression was immunohistochemically investigated in 70 primary esophageal SCCs using the monoclonal antibody Ber-EP4. For the interpretation of the staining results, we used a standardized scoring system ranging from 0 to 3+. The survival analysis was calculated from 53 patients without distant metastasis, with R0 resection and at least 2 months of clinical follow-up. RESULTS: Ep-CAM neo-expression was observed in 79% of the tumors with three expression levels, 1+ (26%), 2+ (11%) and 3+ (41%). Heterogeneous expression was observed at all expression levels. Interestingly, tumors with 3+ Ep-CAM expression conferred a significantly decreased median relapse-free survival period (log rank, p = 0.0001) and median overall survival (log rank, p = 0.0003). Multivariate survival analysis disclosed Ep-CAM 3+ expression as independent prognostic factor. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest Ep-CAM as an attractive molecule for targeted therapy in esophageal SCC. Considering the discontenting results of the current adjuvant concepts for esophageal SCC patients, Ep-CAM might provide a promising target for an adjuvant immunotherapeutic intervention

Mining and state-space modeling and verification of sub-networks from large-scale biomolecular networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Biomolecular networks dynamically respond to stimuli and implement cellular function. Understanding these dynamic changes is the key challenge for cell biologists. As biomolecular networks grow in size and complexity, the model of a biomolecular network must become more rigorous to keep track of all the components and their interactions. In general this presents the need for computer simulation to manipulate and understand the biomolecular network model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this paper, we present a novel method to model the regulatory system which executes a cellular function and can be represented as a biomolecular network. Our method consists of two steps. First, a novel scale-free network clustering approach is applied to the large-scale biomolecular network to obtain various sub-networks. Second, a state-space model is generated for the sub-networks and simulated to predict their behavior in the cellular context. The modeling results represent <it>hypotheses </it>that are tested against high-throughput data sets (microarrays and/or genetic screens) for both the natural system and perturbations. Notably, the dynamic modeling component of this method depends on the automated network structure generation of the first component and the sub-network clustering, which are both essential to make the solution tractable.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Experimental results on time series gene expression data for the human cell cycle indicate our approach is promising for sub-network mining and simulation from large-scale biomolecular network.</p