Multi-modal signal evolution in birds: re-examining a standard proxy for sexual selection

Sexual selection is proposed to be an important driver of speciation and phenotypic diversification in animal systems. However, previous phylogenetic tests have produced conflicting results, perhaps because they have focused on a single signalling modality (visual ornaments), whereas sexual selection may act on alternative signalling modalities (e.g. acoustic ornaments). Here, we compile phenotypic data from 259 avian sister species pairs to assess the relationship between visible plumage dichromatism-a standard index of sexual selection in birds-and macroevolutionary divergence in the other major avian signalling modality: song. We find evidence for a strong negative relationship between the degree of plumage dichromatism and divergence in song traits, which remains significant even when accounting for other key factors, including habitat type, ecological divergence and interspecific interactions. This negative relationship is opposite to the pattern expected by a straightforward interpretation of the sexual selection-diversification hypothesis, whereby higher levels of dichromatism indicating strong sexual selection should be related to greater levels of mating signal divergence regardless of signalling modality. Our findings imply a 'trade-off' between the elaboration of visual ornaments and the diversification of acoustic mating signals, and suggest that the effects of sexual selection on diversification can only be determined by considering multiple alternative signalling modalities

An Information Theory Approach to Hypothesis Testing in Criminological Research

Background: This research demonstrates how the Akaike information criterion (AIC) can be an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing in selecting best fitting models. It presents an example to illustrate how AIC can be used in this way. Methods: Using data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we test models of place-based predictor variables on street robbery and commercial robbery. We build models to balance explanatory power and parsimony. Measures include the presence of different kinds of businesses, together with selected age groups and social disadvantage. Results: Models including place-based measures of land use emerged as the best models among the set of tested models. These were superior to models that included measures of age and socioeconomic status. The best models for commercial and street robbery include three measures of ordinary businesses, liquor stores, and spatial lag. Conclusions: Models based on information theory offer a useful alternative to significance testing when a strong theoretical framework guides the selection of model sets. Theoretically relevant ‘ordinary businesses’ have a greater influence on robbery than socioeconomic variables and most measures of discretionary businesses

Evidence for a Mass Dependent Step-Change in the Scaling of Efficiency in Terrestrial Locomotion

A reanalysis of existing data suggests that the established tenet of increasing efficiency of transport with body size in terrestrial locomotion requires re-evaluation. Here, the statistical model that described the data best indicated a dichotomy between the data for small (<1 kg) and large animals (>1 kg). Within and between these two size groups there was no detectable difference in the scaling exponents (slopes) relating metabolic (Emet) and mechanical costs (Emech, CM) of locomotion to body mass (Mb). Therefore, no scaling of efficiency (Emech, CM/Emet) with Mb was evident within each size group. Small animals, however, appeared to be generally less efficient than larger animals (7% and 26% respectively). Consequently, it is possible that the relationship between efficiency and Mb is not continuous, but, rather, involves a step-change. This step-change in the efficiency of locomotion mirrors previous findings suggesting a postural cause for an apparent size dichotomy in the relationship between Emet and Mb. Currently data for Emech, CM is lacking, but the relationship between efficiency in terrestrial locomotion and Mb is likely to be determined by posture and kinematics rather than body size alone. Hence, scaling of efficiency is likely to be more complex than a simple linear relationship across body sizes. A homogenous study of the mechanical cost of terrestrial locomotion across a broad range of species, body sizes, and importantly locomotor postures is a priority for future research

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Both habitat change and local lek structure influence patterns of spatial loss and recovery in a black grouse population

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-015-0484-3Land use change is a major driver of declines in wildlife populations. Where human economic or recreational interests and wildlife share landscapes this problem is exacerbated. Changes in UK black grouse Tetrao tetrix populations are thought to have been strongly influenced by upland land use change. In a long-studied population within Perthshire, lek persistence is positively correlated with lek size, and remaining leks clustered most strongly within the landscape when the population is lowest, suggesting that there may be a demographic and/or spatial context to the reaction of the population to habitat changes. Hierarchical cluster analysis of lek locations revealed that patterns of lek occupancy when the population was declining were different to those during the later recovery period. Response curves from lek-habitat models developed using MaxEnt for periods with a declining population, low population, and recovering population were consistent across years for most habitat measures. We found evidence linking lek persistence with habitat quality changes and more leks which appeared between 1994 and 2008 were in improving habitat than those which disappeared during the same period. Generalised additive models (GAMs) identified changes in woodland and starting lek size as being important indicators of lek survival between declining and low/recovery periods. There may also have been a role for local densities in explaining recovery since the population low point. Persistence of black grouse leks was influenced by habitat, but changes in this alone did not fully account for black grouse declines. Even when surrounded by good quality habitat, leks can be susceptible to extirpation due to isolation

Social patterning in grip strength and in its association with age; A cross sectional analysis using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS)

Background: Grip strength in early adulthood and midlife is an important predictor of disability, morbidity and mortality in later life. Understanding social patterning in grip strength at different life stages could improve insight into inequalities in age-related decline and when in the life course interventions could prevent the emergence of inequalities. Methods: Using United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) data on 19,292 people aged 16 to 99, fractional polynomial models were fitted to identify which function of age best described its association with grip strength. Linear regressions were used to establish whether socio-economic position (SEP), as measured by maternal education, highest educational qualification and income, was associated with grip strength. To test whether the association between age and grip strength was modified by SEP, interactions between SEP and the age terms were added. Differentiation was used to identify the age at which grip strength was highest for men and women and predicted levels of grip strength at peak were compared. Results: SEP is significantly associated with grip strength on all SEP measures, except education for men. Grip strength is highest at a younger age, and less strong for all measures of disadvantage for women and most measures for men. Interaction terms were not statistically significant indicating that the association between age and grip strength was not modified by SEP. Grip strength peak was 29.3 kg at age 33 for women with disadvantaged childhood SEP compared with 30.2 kg at age 35 for women with advantaged childhood SEP. Conclusion: The SEP differences in age and level of peak grip strength could be indicative of decline in muscle strength beginning earlier and from a lower base for disadvantaged groups. This could impact on the capacity for healthy ageing for those with disadvantaged SEP

Does Day Length Affect Winter Bird Distribution? Testing the Role of an Elusive Variable

Differences in day length may act as a critical factor in bird biology by introducing time constraints in energy acquisition during winter. Thus, differences in day length might operate as a main determinant of bird abundance along latitudinal gradients. This work examines the influence of day length on the abundance of wintering crested tits (Lophophanes cristatus) in 26 localities of Spanish juniper (Juniperus thurifera) dwarf woodlands (average height of 5 m) located along a latitudinal gradient in the Spanish highlands, while controlling for the influence of food availability, minimum night temperature, habitat structure and landscape characteristics. Top regression models in the AIC framework explained 56% of variance in bird numbers. All models incorporated day length as the variable with the highest magnitude effect. Food availability also played an important role, although only the crop of ripe juniper fruits, but not arthropods, positively affected crested tit abundance. Differences in vegetation structure across localities had also a strong positive effect (average tree height and juniper tree density). Geographical variation in night temperature had no influence on crested tit distribution, despite the low winter temperatures reached in these dwarf forests. This paper demonstrates for the first time that winter bird abundance increases with day length after controlling for the effect of other environmental variables. Winter average difference in day length was only 10.5 minutes per day along the 1°47′ latitudinal interval (190 km) included in this study. This amount of time, which reaches 13.5 h accumulated throughout the winter season, appears to be large enough to affect the long-term energy budget of small passerines during winter and to shape the distribution of winter bird abundance under restrictive environmental conditions

Targeting Antibiotics to Households for Trachoma Control

Repeated ocular infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis leads to the development of trachoma, a major cause of infectious blindness worldwide. Mass distribution of antibiotics, a component of the current trachoma control strategy, has had success in reducing infection in some areas, but results in a large number of uninfected people receiving antibiotics. We have previously shown that transmission of the bacteria between people in the same household is very efficient. Here, we investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of targeting antibiotics to households with active trachoma (inflammatory disease) compared to mass distribution, using data from four trachoma-endemic populations and a mathematical model of transmission. We found a high correspondence between households with active trachoma and infected households. In all populations the household targeted approach was predicted to be as effective as mass distribution, but it reduced the number of uninfected individuals receiving antibiotics, making the targeted strategy more cost-effective when antibiotics are not donated. Assuming antibiotics are donated, we predicted the targeted strategy to be more cost effective if it increases the proportion of infected individuals receiving treatment. Further work to address the feasibility and the cost variability in implementing the targeted approach in different settings is now required

Prevalence of Clostridium difficile colonization among healthcare workers

BackgroundClostridium difficile infection (CDI) has increased to epidemic proportions in recent years. The carriage of C. difficile among healthy adults and hospital inpatients has been established. We sought to determine whether C. difficile colonization exists among healthcare workers (HCWs) in our setting.MethodsA point prevalence study of stool colonization with C. difficile among doctors, nurses and allied health staff at a large regional teaching hospital in Geelong, Victoria. All participants completed a short questionnaire and all stool specimens were tested by Techlab&reg; C.diff Quik Check enzyme immunoassay followed by enrichment culture.ResultsAmong 128 healthcare workers, 77% were female, of mean age 43 years, and the majority were nursing staff (73%). Nineteen HCWs (15%) reported diarrhoea, and 12 (9%) had taken antibiotics in the previous six weeks. Over 40% of participants reported having contact with a patient with known or suspected CDI in the 6 weeks before the stool was collected. C. difficile was not isolated from the stool of any participants.ConclusionAlthough HCWs are at risk of asymptomatic carriage and could act as a reservoir for transmission in the hospital environment, with the use of a screening test and culture we were unable to identify C. difficile in the stool of our participants in a non-outbreak setting. This may reflect potential colonization resistance of the gut microbiota, or the success of infection prevention strategies at our institution.<br /