The diagnosis of dengue in patients presenting with acute febrile illness using supervised machine learning and impact of seasonality

Background: Symptomatic dengue infection can result in a life-threatening shock syndrome and timely diagnosis is essential. Point-of-care tests for non-structural protein 1 and IgM are used widely but performance can be limited. We developed a supervised machine learning model to predict whether patients with acute febrile illnesses had a diagnosis of dengue or other febrile illnesses (OFI). The impact of seasonality on model performance over time was examined. Methods: We analysed data from a prospective observational clinical study in Vietnam. Enrolled patients presented with an acute febrile illness of 90%). Conclusion: Supervised machine learning models are able to discriminate between dengue and OFI diagnoses in patients presenting with an early undifferentiated febrile illness. These models could be of clinical utility in supporting healthcare decision-making and provide passive surveillance across dengue endemic regions. Effects of seasonality and changing disease prevalence must however be taken into account—this is of significant importance given unpredictable effects of human-induced climate change and the impact on health

Sex Differences in the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Associated With Type 2 Diabetes: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies have demonstrated that type 2 diabetes is a stronger risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) in women compared with men. However, it is not clear whether this reflects a sex differential in the causal effect of diabetes on CHD risk or results from sex-specific residual confounding. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using 270 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for type 2 diabetes identified in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study, we performed a sex-stratified Mendelian randomization (MR) study of type 2 diabetes and CHD using individual participant data in UK Biobank (251,420 women and 212,049 men). Weighted median, MR-Egger, MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, and radial MR from summary-level analyses were used for pleiotropy assessment. RESULTS: MR analyses showed that genetic risk of type 2 diabetes increased the odds of CHD for women (odds ratio 1.13 [95% CI 1.08–1.18] per 1-log unit increase in odds of type 2 diabetes) and men (1.21 [1.17–1.26] per 1-log unit increase in odds of type 2 diabetes). Sensitivity analyses showed some evidence of directional pleiotropy; however, results were similar after correction for outlier SNPs. CONCLUSIONS: This MR analysis supports a causal effect of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes on risk of CHD that is not stronger for women than men. Assuming a lack of bias, these findings suggest that the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes for CHD risk reduction is of equal priority in both sexes

The missions of medical schools: the pursuit of health in the service of society

Mission statements and role documents of medical schools in the United Kingdom, United States, Canada and Australia have been examined on their Internet Web sites and categorised in purpose, content and presentation. The format and content are highly variable, but there is a common vision of three integral roles, namely, education, advancement of knowledge and service to society. Other frequent themes include tradition and historical perspective, service for designated communities, and benchmarking to accreditation standards. Differences in content reflect variable interpretation of the notion of "mission", and local or national characteristics such as institutional affiliations, the types, levels and organisation of medical education, relationships with health systems, and extent of multi-professional education. Outcomes data and measures of medical school performance referenced to the institution's stated missions are rarely encountered. Mission documents placed on the Internet are in the public domain. These Web sites and documents and linked information constitute a valuable new resource for international exchange of approaches and ideas in medical education and generally in academic medicine. Routine inclusion of outcome or performance data could help to demonstrate the community roles and social accountability of medical schools This paper proposes that partial standardisation of these Web documents could enhance their value both internally and for external readers. A generic descriptive statement template is offered

Translational Cancer Research: Balancing Prevention and Treatment to Combat Cancer Globally

Cancer research is drawing on the human genome project to develop new molecular-targeted treatments. This is an exciting but insufficient response to the growing, global burden of cancer, particularly as the projected increase in new cases in the coming decades is increasingly falling on developing countries. The world is not able to treat its way out of the cancer problem. However, the mechanistic insights from basic science can be harnessed to better understand cancer causes and prevention, thus underpinning a complementary public health approach to cancer control. This manuscript focuses on how new knowledge about the molecular and cellular basis of cancer, and the associated high-throughput laboratory technologies for studying those pathways, can be applied to population-based epidemiological studies, particularly in the context of large prospective cohorts with associated biobanks to provide an evidence base for cancer prevention. This integrated approach should allow a more rapid and informed translation of the research into educational and policy interventions aimed at risk reduction across a population

Estimating the health burden of aflatoxin attributable stunting among children in low income countries of Africa

Numerous population-based studies have documented high prevalence of aflatoxin associated childhood stunting in low income countries. We provide an estimate of the disease burden of aflatoxin related stunting using data from the four African countries. For this empirical analysis, we obtained blood aflatoxin albumin adduct biomarker based exposure data as measured using ELISA technique and anthropometric measurement data from surveys done over a 12-year period from 2001 to 2012 in four low income countries in Africa. We used these data to calculate population attributable risk (PAR), life time disease burden for children under five by comparing two groups of stunted children using both prevalence and incidence-based approaches. We combined prevalence estimates with a disability weight, measuring childhood stunting and co-occurrence of stunting-underweight to produce years lived with disability. Using a previously reported mortality, years of life lost were estimated. We used probabilistic analysis to model these associations to estimate the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and compared these with those given by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. The PAR increased from 3 to 36% for aflatoxin-related stunting and 14–50% for co-occurrence of stunting and underweight. Using prevalence-based approach, children with aflatoxin related stunting resulted in 48,965.20 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 45,868.75–52,207.53) DALYs per 100,000 individuals. Children with co-occurrence of stunting and underweight due to exposure to aflatoxin resulted in 40,703.41 (95% UI: 38,041.57–43,517.89) DALYs per 100,000 individuals. Uncertainty analysis revealed that reducing aflatoxin exposure in high exposure areas upto non-detectable levels could save the stunting DALYs up to 50%. The burden of childhood all causes stunting is greater in countries with higher aflatoxin exposure such as Benin. In high exposure areas, these results might help guide research protocols and prioritisation efforts and focus aflatoxin exposure reduction. HEFCE Global Challenge Research Fund Aflatoxin project

Characterization and Comparison of 2 Distinct Epidemic Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Clones of ST59 Lineage.

Sequence type (ST) 59 is an epidemic lineage of community-associated (CA) methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates. Taiwanese CA-MRSA isolates belong to ST59 and can be grouped into 2 distinct clones, a virulent Taiwan clone and a commensal Asian-Pacific clone. The Taiwan clone carries the Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes and the staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec (SCCmec) VT, and is frequently isolated from patients with severe disease. The Asian-Pacific clone is PVL-negative, carries SCCmec IV, and a frequent colonizer of healthy children. Isolates of both clones were characterized by their ability to adhere to respiratory A549 cells, cytotoxicity to human neutrophils, and nasal colonization of a murine and murine sepsis models. Genome variation was determined by polymerase chain reaction of selected virulence factors and by multi-strain whole genome microarray. Additionally, the expression of selected factors was compared between the 2 clones. The Taiwan clone showed a much higher cytotoxicity to the human neutrophils and caused more severe septic infections with a high mortality rate in the murine model. The clones were indistinguishable in their adhesion to A549 cells and persistence of murine nasal colonization. The microarray data revealed that the Taiwan clone had lost the ø3-prophage that integrates into the β-hemolysin gene and includes staphylokinase- and enterotoxin P-encoding genes, but had retained the genes for human immune evasion, scn and chps. Production of the virulence factors did not differ significantly in the 2 clonal groups, although more α-toxin was expressed in Taiwan clone isolates from pneumonia patients. In conclusion, the Taiwan CA-MRSA clone was distinguished by enhanced virulence in both humans and an animal infection model. The evolutionary acquisition of PVL, the higher expression of α-toxin, and possibly the loss of a large portion of the β-hemolysin-converting prophage likely contribute to its higher pathogenic potential than the Asian-Pacific clone

Evaluation of a joint Bioinformatics and Medical Informatics international course in Peru

Background: New technologies that emerge at the interface of computational and biomedical science could drive new advances in global health, therefore more training in technology is needed among health care workers. To assess the potential for informatics training using an approach designed to foster interaction at this interface, the University of Washington and the Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia developed and assessed a one-week course that included a new Bioinformatics (BIO) track along with an established Medical/Public Health Informatics track (MI) for participants in Peru. Methods: We assessed the background of the participants, and measured the knowledge gained by track-specific (MI or BIO) 30-minute pre- and post-tests. Participants' attitudes were evaluated both by daily evaluations and by an end-course evaluation. Results: Forty-three participants enrolled in the course - 20 in the MI track and 23 in the BIO track. Of 20 questions, the mean % score for the MI track increased from 49.7 pre-test (standard deviation or SD = 17.0) to 59.7 (SD = 15.2) for the post-test (P = 0.002, n = 18). The BIO track mean score increased from 33.6 pre-test to 51.2 post-test (P less than 0.001, n = 21). Most comments (76%) about any aspect of the course were positive. The main perceived strength of the course was the quality of the speakers, and the main perceived weakness was the short duration of the course. Overall, the course acceptability was very good to excellent with a rating of 4.1 (scale 1-5), and the usefulness of the course was rated as very good. Most participants (62.9%) expressed a positive opinion about having had the BIO and MI tracks come together for some of the lectures. Conclusion: Pre- and post-test results and the positive evaluations by the participants indicate that this first joint Bioinformatics and Medical/Public Health Informatics (MI and BIO) course was a success.The University of Washington AMAUTA Global Training in Health Informatics, a Fogarty International Center/NIH funded grant (5D43TW007551), and the AMAUTA Research Practica Program, a Puget Sound Partners for Global Health-funded grant

Nut production in Bertholletia excelsa across a logged forest mosaic: implications for multiple forest use

Although many examples of multiple-use forest management may be found in tropical smallholder systems, few studies provide empirical support for the integration of selective timber harvesting with non-timber forest product (NTFP) extraction. Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, Lecythidaceae) is one of the world’s most economically-important NTFP species extracted almost entirely from natural forests across the Amazon Basin. An obligate out-crosser, Brazil nut flowers are pollinated by large-bodied bees, a process resulting in a hard round fruit that takes up to 14 months to mature. As many smallholders turn to the financial security provided by timber, Brazil nut fruits are increasingly being harvested in logged forests. We tested the influence of tree and stand-level covariates (distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity) on total nut production at the individual tree level in five recently logged Brazil nut concessions covering about 4000 ha of forest in Madre de Dios, Peru. Our field team accompanied Brazil nut harvesters during the traditional harvest period (January-April 2012 and January-April 2013) in order to collect data on fruit production. Three hundred and ninety-nine (approximately 80%) of the 499 trees included in this study were at least 100 m from the nearest cut stump, suggesting that concessionaires avoid logging near adult Brazil nut trees. Yet even for those trees on the edge of logging gaps, distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity did not have a statistically significant influence on Brazil nut production at the applied logging intensities (typically 1–2 timber trees removed per ha). In one concession where at least 4 trees ha-1 were removed, however, the logging intensity covariate resulted in a marginally significant (0.09) P value, highlighting a potential risk for a drop in nut production at higher intensities. While we do not suggest that logging activities should be completely avoided in Brazil nut rich forests, when a buffer zone cannot be observed, low logging intensities should be implemented. The sustainability of this integrated management system will ultimately depend on a complex series of socioeconomic and ecological interactions. Yet we submit that our study provides an important initial step in understanding the compatibility of timber harvesting with a high value NTFP, potentially allowing for diversification of forest use strategies in Amazonian Perù

Fast Statistical Alignment

We describe a new program for the alignment of multiple biological sequences that is both statistically motivated and fast enough for problem sizes that arise in practice. Our Fast Statistical Alignment program is based on pair hidden Markov models which approximate an insertion/deletion process on a tree and uses a sequence annealing algorithm to combine the posterior probabilities estimated from these models into a multiple alignment. FSA uses its explicit statistical model to produce multiple alignments which are accompanied by estimates of the alignment accuracy and uncertainty for every column and character of the alignment—previously available only with alignment programs which use computationally-expensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches—yet can align thousands of long sequences. Moreover, FSA utilizes an unsupervised query-specific learning procedure for parameter estimation which leads to improved accuracy on benchmark reference alignments in comparison to existing programs. The centroid alignment approach taken by FSA, in combination with its learning procedure, drastically reduces the amount of false-positive alignment on biological data in comparison to that given by other methods. The FSA program and a companion visualization tool for exploring uncertainty in alignments can be used via a web interface at http://orangutan.math.berkeley.edu/fsa/, and the source code is available at http://fsa.sourceforge.net/