Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the event’s risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment

Integrative omics to detect bacteremia in patients with febrile neutropenia

Background: Cancer chemotherapy-associated febrile neutropenia (FN) is a common condition that is deadly when bacteremia is present. Detection of bacteremia depends on culture, which takes days, and no accurate predictive tools applicable to the initial evaluation are available. We utilized metabolomics and transcriptomics to develop multivariable predictors of bacteremia among FN patients. Methods: We classified emergency department patients with FN and no apparent infection at presentation as bacteremic (cases) or not (controls), according to blood culture results. We assessed relative metabolite abundance in plasma, and relative expression of 2,560 immunology and cancer-related genes in whole blood. We used logistic regression to identify multivariable predictors of bacteremia, and report test characteristics of the derived predictors. Results: For metabolomics, 14 bacteremic cases and 25 non-bacteremic controls were available for analysis; for transcriptomics we had 7 and 22 respectively. A 5-predictor metabolomic model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.991 (95%CI: 0.972,1.000), 100% sensitivity, and 96% specificity for identifying bacteremia. Pregnenolone steroids were more abundant in cases and carnitine metabolites were more abundant in controls. A 3-predictor gene expression model had corresponding results of 0.961 (95%CI: 0.896,1.000), 100%, and 86%. Genes involved in innate immunity were differentially expressed. Conclusions: Classifiers derived from metabolomic and gene expression data hold promise as objective and accurate predictors of bacteremia among FN patients without apparent infection at presentation, and can provide insights into the underlying biology. Our findings should be considered illustrative, but may lay the groundwork for future biomarker development

Clinical outcomes of ED patients with bandemia

BackgroundAlthough an elevated white blood cell count is a widely utilized measure for evidence of infection and an important criterion for evaluation of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, its component band count occupies a more contested position within clinical emergency medicine. Recent studies indicate that bandemia is highly predictive of a serious infection, suggesting that clinicians who do not appreciate the value of band counts may delay diagnosis or overlook severe infections.ObjectivesWhereas previous studies focused on determining the quantitative value of the band count (ie, determining sensitivity, threshold for bandemia, etc.), this study directs attention to patient-centered outcomes, hypothesizing that the degree of bandemia predisposes patients to subsequent negative clinical outcomes associated with underappreciated severe infections.MethodsThis retrospective study of electronic medical records includes patients who initially presented to the emergency department (ED) with bandemia and were subsequently discharged from the ED. These patients were screened for repeat ED visits within 7 days and death within 30 days.ResultsIn patients with severe bandemia who were discharged from the ED, there was a 20.9% revisit rate at 7 days and a 4.9% mortality rate at 30 days, placing severely bandemic patients at 5 times significantly greater mortality compared to nonbandemic patients (P = .032).ConclusionOur review of patient outcomes suggests that the degree of bandemia, especially in the setting of concurrent tachycardia or fever, is associated with greater likelihood of negative clinical outcomes

Tumor Cell Marker PVRL4 (Nectin 4) Is an Epithelial Cell Receptor for Measles Virus

Vaccine and laboratory adapted strains of measles virus can use CD46 as a receptor to infect many human cell lines. However, wild type isolates of measles virus cannot use CD46, and they infect activated lymphocytes, dendritic cells, and macrophages via the receptor CD150/SLAM. Wild type virus can also infect epithelial cells of the respiratory tract through an unidentified receptor. We demonstrate that wild type measles virus infects primary airway epithelial cells grown in fetal calf serum and many adenocarcinoma cell lines of the lung, breast, and colon. Transfection of non-infectable adenocarcinoma cell lines with an expression vector encoding CD150/SLAM rendered them susceptible to measles virus, indicating that they were virus replication competent, but lacked a receptor for virus attachment and entry. Microarray analysis of susceptible versus non-susceptible cell lines was performed, and comparison of membrane protein gene transcripts produced a list of 11 candidate receptors. Of these, only the human tumor cell marker PVRL4 (Nectin 4) rendered cells amenable to measles virus infections. Flow cytometry confirmed that PVRL4 is highly expressed on the surfaces of susceptible lung, breast, and colon adenocarcinoma cell lines. Measles virus preferentially infected adenocarcinoma cell lines from the apical surface, although basolateral infection was observed with reduced kinetics. Confocal immune fluorescence microscopy and surface biotinylation experiments revealed that PVRL4 was expressed on both the apical and basolateral surfaces of these cell lines. Antibodies and siRNA directed against PVRL4 were able to block measles virus infections in MCF7 and NCI-H358 cancer cells. A virus binding assay indicated that PVRL4 was a bona fide receptor that supported virus attachment to the host cell. Several strains of measles virus were also shown to use PVRL4 as a receptor. Measles virus infection reduced PVRL4 surface expression in MCF7 cells, a property that is characteristic of receptor-associated viral infections

Clinical Guidelines for the Emergency Department Evaluation of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

BackgroundSubarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is frequently caused by the rupture of an intracranial aneurysmal vessel or arteriovenous malformation, leading to a cascade of events that can result in severe disability or death. When evaluating for this diagnosis, emergency physicians have classically performed a noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) scan, followed by a lumbar puncture (LP). Recently, however, as CT technology has advanced, many studies have questioned the necessity of the LP in the SAH diagnostic algorithm and have instead advocated for noninvasive techniques, such as NCCT alone or NCCT with CT angiogram (CTA).ObjectiveThe primary goal of this literature search was to determine the appropriate emergency department (ED) management of patients with suspected SAH.MethodsA MEDLINE literature search from October 2008 to June 2015 was performed using the keywords computed tomography AND subarachnoid hemorrhage AND lumbar puncture, while limiting the search to human studies written in the English language. General review articles and single case reports were omitted. Each of the selected articles then underwent a structured review.ResultsNinety-one articles were identified, with 31 papers being considered appropriate for analysis. These studies then underwent a rigorous review from which recommendations were developed.ConclusionsThe literature search supports that NCCT followed by CTA is a reasonable approach in the evaluation of ED patients with possible SAH

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Canagliflozin and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes and Nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to 300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m 2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years