Evaluation and management implications of uncertainty in a multispecies size-structured model of population and community responses to fishing

1. Implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries requires advice on trade-offs among fished species and between fisheries yields and biodiversity or food web properties. However, the lack of explicit representation, analysis and consideration of uncertainty in most multispecies models has limited their application in analyses that could support management advice. 2. We assessed the consequences of parameter uncertainty by developing 78 125 multispecies size-structured fish community models, with all combinations of parameters drawn from ranges that spanned parameter values estimated from data and literature. This unfiltered ensemble was reduced to 188 plausible models, the filtered ensemble (FE), by screening outputs against fish abundance data and ecological principles such as requiring species' persistence. 3. Effects of parameter uncertainty on estimates of single-species management reference points for fishing mortality (FMSY, fishing mortality rate providing MSY, the maximum sustainable yield) and biomass (BMSY, biomass at MSY) were evaluated by calculating probability distributions of estimated reference points with the FE. There was a 50% probability that multispecies FMSY could be estimated to within ±25% of its actual value, and a 50% probability that BMSY could be estimated to within ±40% of its actual value. 4. Signal-to-noise ratio was assessed for four community indicators when mortality rates were reduced from current rates to FMSY. The slope of the community size spectrum showed the greatest signal-to-noise ratio, indicating that it would be the most responsive indicator to the change in fishing mortality F. Further, the power of an ongoing international monitoring survey to detect predicted responses of size spectrum slope was higher than for other size-based metrics. 5. Synthesis and applications: Application of the ensemble model approach allows explicit representation of parameter uncertainty and supports advice and management by (i) providing uncertainty intervals for management reference points, (ii) estimating working values of reference points that achieve a defined reduction in risk of not breaching the true reference point, (iii) estimating the responsiveness of population, community, food web and biodiversity indicators to changes in F, (iv) assessing the performance of indicators and monitoring programmes and (v) identifying priorities for data collection and changes to model structure to reduce uncertainty

Bailouts in a common market: a strategic approach

Governments in the EU grant Rescue and Restructure Subsidies to bail out ailing firms. In an international asymmetric Cournot duopoly we study effects of such subsidies on market structure and welfare. We adopt a common market setting, where consumers from the two countries form one market. We show that the subsidy is positive also when it fails to prevent the exit. The reason is a strategic effect, which forces the more efficient firm to make additional cost-reducing effort. When the exit is prevented, allocative and productive efficiencies are lower and the only gaining player is the rescued firm

A 5d/3d duality from relativistic integrable system

We propose and prove a new exact duality between the F-terms of supersymmetric gauge theories in five and three dimensions with adjoint matter fields. The theories are compactified on a circle and are subject to the Omega deformation. In the limit proposed by Nekrasov and Shatashvili, the supersymmetric vacua become isolated and are identified with the eigenstates of a quantum integrable system. The effective twisted superpotentials are the Yang-Yang functional of the relativistic elliptic Calogero-Moser model. We show that they match on-shell by deriving the Bethe ansatz equation from the saddle point of the five-dimensional partition function. We also show that the Chern-Simons terms match and extend our proposal to the elliptic quiver generalizations.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures. v2: typo corrected, references adde

Comparing species and ecosystem-based estimates of fisheries yields

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Fisheries Research 111 (2011): 139-144, doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.07.009.Three methods are described to estimate potential yields of commercial fish species: (i) single-species calculation of maximum sustainable yields, and two ecosystem-based methods derived from published results for (ii) energy flow and for (iii) community structure. The requirements imposed by food-web fluxes, and by patterns of relative abundance, provide constraints on individual species. These constraints are used to set limits to ecosystem-based yields (EBY); these limits, in turn, provide a comparison with the usual estimates of maximum sustainable yields (MSY). We use data on cod and haddock production from Georges Bank for the decade 1993-2002 to demonstrate these methods. We show that comparisons among the three approaches can be used to demonstrate that ecosystem based estimates of yields complement, rather than supersede, the single-species estimates. The former specify the significant changes required in the rest of the ecosystem to achieve a return to maximum sustainable levels for severely depleted commercial fish stocks. The overall conclusion is that MSY defines changes required in particular stocks, whereas EBY determines the changes required in the rest of the ecosystem to realize these yields. Species specific MSY only has meaning in the context of the prey, predators and competitors that surround it.We acknowledge NSF awards OCE081459 (to DJG) and OCE0814474 (to JHS)

Qualitative exploration of the renal stone patients' experience and development of the renal stone-specific patient-reported outcome measure

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the experience of patients living with renal calculi via a qualitative methodology, aiming to develop and validate a disease-specific patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) for renal stones, the Cambridge Renal Stone PROM (CReSP). PATIENTS, SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Patients with radiologically confirmed renal calculi who had undergone a range of management options were invited to focus groups or semi-structured interviews to elicit patient input and generate the PROM content. The developed renal stone PROM underwent validity studies included Cronbach's α for internal consistency, Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients for test-retest reliability. Discriminant validity was assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficients vs the EuroQol five-dimensional five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). Our project has Health and Social Care Research Ethics Committee approval. RESULTS: A total of 106 subjects participated in creating the newly developed PROM. In all, 36 patients were invited to 22 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups, until reaching saturation. Major issues reported, and themes selected for the renal stone PROM included pain, anxiety, limitations to social life and tiredness, urinary symptoms, dietary changes' impacts, and gastrointestinal tract symptoms. Reliability analysis for 30 patients to determine internal consistency using Cronbach's α with a mean (range) of 0.91 (0.90-0.93) within domains and Cronbach's α between domains was 0.92. Average inter-item Pearson's and Spearman's correlation within domains was performed, with a Pearson's correlation mean (range) of 0.77 (0.73-0.85) and Spearman's correlation mean (range) of 0.72 (0.63-0.77). The test-retest Pearson's correlation mean (range) was 0.85 (0.57-0.95). Validity assessment was performed for 20 patients vs 20 controls. Pearson's correlation with EQ-5D-5L was -0.74, showing the newly developed PROM successfully discriminated patients with kidney stones. Our final renal stone PROM consists of 14 questions that are rated on a Likert scale; the higher the score, the worse the effect on a patient's quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Although pain was the most frequent symptom, other health-related and social well-being issues significantly impacted patients' lives. Our validated patient-derived CReSP is a new instrument, specifically tailored to measure renal stone disease health outcomes from the patient's point of view

The impact of routine pulse oximetry use on outcomes in COVID-19-infected patients at increased risk of severe disease: A retrospective cohort analysis

Background. The phenomenon of silent hypoxaemia has been described in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, which is characterised by low oxygen saturation levels of <90% in those who appear clinically well and do not show signs of significant respiratory distress.Objectives. To assess the impact on clinical outcomes for high-risk COVID-19 patients using a pulse oximeter to monitor oxygen saturation levels in a home setting.Methods. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis using data from a large South African insurance administrator. Patients were categorised as high risk, based on age and specific underlying clinical conditions, or from predictive models derived from medical scheme administrative claims data. The impact of pulse oximetry home monitoring on COVID-19 clinical outcomes was investigated by the use of Cox proportional hazard models.Results. Between 2 March 2020 and 31 October 2020, of 38 660 patients analysed, 8 115 were in the intervention group. The 60-day mortality rate for the evaluated high-risk population was 1.35%. After adjusting for age and comorbidity differences, the intervention group was found to have an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.52 (p<0.0001). No statistical significance was found between the intervened and control groups for admission to hospital, admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and use of mechanical ventilation. The intervention group had a lower median C-reactive protein (CRP) level on admission (p=0.03). After adjustment for admission CRP levels, elevated CRP was associated with an increased mortality (p<0.0001), while the statistical significance in mortality between the intervention and the control group was lost.Conclusions. High-risk COVID-19 patients who used a pulse oximeter to monitor oxygen saturation levels had significantly lower mortality rates compared with other high-risk patients. The mortality benefit may be explained by earlier presentation to hospital, as suggested by lower initial CRP levels.

Evaluating Summer Flounder Spatial Sex-Segregation in a Southern New England Estuary

Marine fish species can exhibit sex-specific differences in their biological traits. Not accounting for these characteristics in the stock assessment or management of a species can lead to misunderstanding its population dynamics and result in ineffective regulatory strategies. Summer Flounder Paralichthys dentatus, a flatfish that supports significant commercial and recreational fisheries along the northeastern U.S. shelf, expresses variation in several traits between the sexes, including growth and habitat preference. To further understand these patterns, 1,302 Summer Flounder were collected and sexed in 2016 and 2017 from fisheries-independent surveys conducted in Rhode Island state waters. Female flounder were more prevalent in shallow waters (15 m) from May through September. The probability of a collected flounder being female was evaluated with generalized linear models and covariates representing depth, temperature, month, year, and TL. Summer Flounder were more likely to be female at larger sizes, in shallower waters, and late in the season. When compared with landings data in the recreational fishery over the sampling period, the results suggest that nearly all flounder harvested in the sector were female. This work provides further evidence for and characterization of Summer Flounder sex-segregation and highlights, for management purposes, the importance of considering fine-scale spatial dynamics in addition to broader distribution patterns. The fitted model represents an effective first step toward understanding the implications of an aggregated fishing effort for disproportionate removals of male or female flounder and for exploring resulting consequences for regional spawning stock biomass and stock resiliency

β-Glucan is a major growth substrate for human gut bacteria related to Coprococcus eutactus

A clone encoding carboxymethyl cellulase activity was isolated during functional screening of a human gut metagenomic library using Lactococcus lactis MG1363 as heterologous host. The insert carried a glycoside hydrolase family 9 (GH9) catalytic domain with sequence similarity to a gene from Coprococcus eutactus ART55/1. Genome surveys indicated a limited distribution of GH9 domains among dominant human colonic anaerobes. Genomes of C. eutactus-related strains harboured two GH9-encoding and four GH5-encoding genes, but the strains did not appear to degrade cellulose. Instead, they grew well on β-glucans and one of the strains also grew on galactomannan, galactan, glucomannan and starch. Coprococcus comes and Coprococcus catus strains did not harbour GH9 genes and were not able to grow on β-glucans. Gene expression and proteomic analysis of C. eutactus ART55/1 grown on cellobiose, β-glucan and lichenan revealed similar changes in expression in comparison to glucose. On β-glucan and lichenan only, one of the four GH5 genes was strongly upregulated. Growth on glucomannan led to a transcriptional response of many genes, in particular a strong upregulation of glycoside hydrolases involved in mannan degradation. Thus, β-glucans are a major growth substrate for species related to C. eutactus, with glucomannan and galactans alternative substrates for some strains

Repeat workers' compensation claims: risk factors, costs and work disability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of our study was to describe factors associated with repeat workers' compensation claims and to compare the work disability arising in workers with single and multiple compensation claims.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All initial injury claims lodged by persons of working age during a five year period (1996 to 2000) and any repeat claims were extracted from workers' compensation administrative data in the state of Victoria, Australia. Groups of workers with single and multiple claims were identified. Descriptive analysis of claims by affliction, bodily location, industry segment, occupation, employer and workplace was undertaken. Survival analysis determined the impact of these variables on the time between the claims. The economic impact and duration of work incapacity associated with initial and repeat claims was compared between groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>37% of persons with an initial claim lodged a second claim. This group contained a significantly greater proportion of males, were younger and more likely to be employed in manual occupations and high-risk industries than those with single claims. 78% of repeat claims were for a second injury. Duration between the claims was shortest when the working conditions had not changed. The initial claims of repeat claimants resulted in significantly (<it>p < 0.001</it>) lower costs and work disability than the repeat claims.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A substantial proportion of injured workers experience a second occupational injury or disease. These workers pose a greater economic burden than those with single claims, and also experience a substantially greater cumulative period of work disability. There is potential to reduce the social, health and economic burden of workplace injury by enacting prevention programs targeted at these workers.</p

Traumatic injury survivors’ perceptions of their future: a longitudinal qualitative study

AIM: Persistent disability following traumatic injuries can disrupt future plans and create uncertainty about how to mitigate future impacts. It is unknown how or whether perceptions of the future change in the years after injury. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore trauma survivors’ perceptions of their future over time. METHODS: A longitudinal qualitative study, nested within a population-based longitudinal cohort study, was undertaken in Victoria, Australia with survivors of serious injury. Sixty-six seriously injured adults (≥16 years) without severe neurotrauma were interviewed at 3 years post-injury (n = 66), and re-interviewed at 4 (n = 63) and 5 years (n = 57) post-injury. A longitudinal thematic analysis was performed. RESULTS: Many traumatically injured people had persistent physical and mental impacts. Participants reported being anxious about pain, mobility, work, housing and accommodation, social activities, and finances in their future. Others were hopeful and optimistic regarding their future and developed coping strategies and adopted new viewpoints. CONCLUSION: ver time, most seriously injured people’s perceptions of the future remained consistent. Some had enduring anxiety and others sustained hopeful approaches. Personalised and targeted interventions that address specific concerns could reduce anxiety and support positive adjustment following traumatic injury