1,989 research outputs found

    What Drives the Intensification of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the West African Sahel under Climate Change?

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    Extreme rainfall is expected to increase under climate change, carrying potential socioeconomic risks. However, the magnitude of increase is uncertain. Over recent decades, extreme storms over the West African Sahel have increased in frequency, with increased vertical wind shear shown to be a cause. Drier midlevels, stronger cold pools, and increased storm organization have also been observed. Global models do not capture the potential effects of lower- to midtropospheric wind shear or cold pools on storm organization since they parameterize convection. Here we use the first convection-permitting simulations of African climate change to understand how changes in thermodynamics and storm dynamics affect future extreme Sahelian rainfall. The model, which simulates warming associated with representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) until the end of the twenty-first century, projects a 28% increase of the extreme rain rate of MCSs. The Sahel moisture change on average follows Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, but has regional heterogeneity. Rain rates scale with the product of time-of-storm total column water (TCW) and in-storm vertical velocity. Additionally, prestorm wind shear and convective available potential energy both modulate in-storm vertical velocity. Although wind shear affects cloud-top temperatures within our model, it has no direct correlation with precipitation rates. In our model, projected future increase in TCW is the primary explanation for increased rain rates. Finally, although colder cold pools are modeled in the future climate, we see no significant change in near-surface winds, highlighting avenues for future research on convection-permitting modeling of storm dynamics

    Search algorithms as a framework for the optimization of drug combinations

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    Combination therapies are often needed for effective clinical outcomes in the management of complex diseases, but presently they are generally based on empirical clinical experience. Here we suggest a novel application of search algorithms, originally developed for digital communication, modified to optimize combinations of therapeutic interventions. In biological experiments measuring the restoration of the decline with age in heart function and exercise capacity in Drosophila melanogaster, we found that search algorithms correctly identified optimal combinations of four drugs with only one third of the tests performed in a fully factorial search. In experiments identifying combinations of three doses of up to six drugs for selective killing of human cancer cells, search algorithms resulted in a highly significant enrichment of selective combinations compared with random searches. In simulations using a network model of cell death, we found that the search algorithms identified the optimal combinations of 6-9 interventions in 80-90% of tests, compared with 15-30% for an equivalent random search. These findings suggest that modified search algorithms from information theory have the potential to enhance the discovery of novel therapeutic drug combinations. This report also helps to frame a biomedical problem that will benefit from an interdisciplinary effort and suggests a general strategy for its solution.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figures, revised versio

    Congenic Strain Analysis Reveals Genes That Are Rapidly Evolving Components of a Prezygotic Isolation Mechanism Mediating Incipient Reinforcement

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    Two decades ago, we developed a congenic strain of Mus musculus, called b-congenic, by replacing the androgen-binding protein Abpa27a allele in the C3H/HeJ genome with the Abpa27b allele from DBA/2J. We and other researchers used this b-congenic strain and its C3H counterpart, the a-congenic strain, to test the hypothesis that, given the choice between signals from two strains with different a27 alleles on the same genetic background, test subjects would prefer the homosubspecific one. It was our purpose in undertaking this study to characterize the segment transferred from DBA to the C3H background in producing the b-congenic strain on which a role for ABPA27 in behavior has been predicated. We determined the size of the chromosome 7 segment transferred from DBA and the genes it contains that might influence preference. We found that the “functional" DBA segment is about 1% the size of the mouse haploid genome and contains at least 29 genes expressed in salivary glands, however, only three of these encode proteins identified in the mouse salivary proteome. At least two of the three genes Abpa27, Abpbg26 and Abpbg27 encoding the subunits of androgen-binding protein ABP dimers evolved under positive selection and the third one may have also. In the sense that they are subunits of the same two functional entities, the ABP dimers, we propose that their evolutionary histories might not be independent of each other

    A Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

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    This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordA convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes for African Climate (IMPALA) project, and its configuration, domain, and forcing data are described here in detail. The model [Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office UM (CP4-Africa)] uses a 4.5-km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parameterization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea surface, which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parameterizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface, and aerosol climatologies of CP4-Africa, has been run to aid in the understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parameterization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in CP4-Africa is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first five years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa, giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

    Development and validation of the Australian Aboriginal racial identity and self-esteem survey for 8-12 year old children (IRISE-C)

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    Introduction: In Australia, there is little empirical research of the racial identity of Indigenous children and youth as the majority of the current literature focuses on adults. Furthermore, there are no instruments developed with cultural appropriateness when exploring the identity and self-esteem of the Australian Aboriginal population, especially children. The IRISE-C (Racial Identity and Self-Esteem of children) inventory was developed to explore the elements of racial identity and self-esteem of urban, rural and regional Aboriginal children. This paper describes the development and validation of the IRISE-C instrument with over 250 Aboriginal children aged 8 to 12 years. Methods: A pilot of the IRISE C instrument was combined with individual interviews and was undertaken with 35 urban Aboriginal children aged 8-12 years. An exploratory factor analysis was performed to refine the survey and reduce redundant items in readiness for the main study. In the main study, the IRISE C was employed to 229 Aboriginal children aged 6-13 years across three sites (rural, regional and urban) in Western Australia. An exploratory factor analysis using Principal axis factoring was used to assess the fit of items and survey structure. A confirmatory factor analysis was then employed using LISREL (diagonally weighted least squares) to assess factor structures across domains. Internal consistency and reliability of subscales were assessed using Cronbach's co-efficient alpha. Results: The pilot testing identified two key concepts - children's knowledge of issues related to their racial identity, and the importance, or salience, that they attach to these issues. In the main study, factor analyses showed two clear factors relating to: Aboriginal culture and traditions; and a sense of belonging to an Aboriginal community. Principal Axis Factoring of the Knowledge items supported a 2-factor solution, which explained 38.7 % of variance. Factor One (Aboriginal culture) had a Cronbach's alpha of 0.835; Factor 2 (racial identity) had a Cronbach's alpha of 0.800, thus demonstrating high internal reliability of the scales. Conclusion: The IRISE-C has been shown to be a valid instrument useful of exploring the development of racial identity of Australian Aboriginal children across the 8-12 year old age range and across urban, rural and regional geographical locations

    The use of NDVI and its Derivatives for Monitoring Lake Victoria’s Water Level and Drought Conditions

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    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is a measure of vegetation vigour, and lake water levels respond variably to precipitation and its deficiency. For a given lake catchment, NDVI may have the ability to depict localized natural variability in water levels in response to weather patterns. This information may be used to decipher natural from unnatural variations of a given lake’s surface. This study evaluates the potential of using NDVI and its associated derivatives (VCI (vegetation condition index), SVI (standardised vegetation index), AINDVI (annually integrated NDVI), green vegetation function (F g ), and NDVIA (NDVI anomaly)) to depict Lake Victoria’s water levels. Thirty years of monthly mean water levels and a portion of the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) NDVI datasets were used. Their aggregate data structures and temporal co-variabilities were analysed using GIS/spatial analysis tools. Locally, NDVI was found to be more sensitive to drought (i.e., responded more strongly to reduced precipitation) than to water levels. It showed a good ability to depict water levels one-month in advance, especially in moderate to low precipitation years. SVI and SWL (standardized water levels) used in association with AINDVI and AMWLA (annual mean water levels anomaly) readily identified high precipitation years, which are also when NDVI has a low ability to depict water levels. NDVI also appears to be able to highlight unnatural variations in water levels. We propose an iterative approach for the better use of NDVI, which may be useful in developing an early warning mechanisms for the management of lake Victoria and other Lakes with similar characteristics

    Surface and Temporal Biosignatures

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    Recent discoveries of potentially habitable exoplanets have ignited the prospect of spectroscopic investigations of exoplanet surfaces and atmospheres for signs of life. This chapter provides an overview of potential surface and temporal exoplanet biosignatures, reviewing Earth analogues and proposed applications based on observations and models. The vegetation red-edge (VRE) remains the most well-studied surface biosignature. Extensions of the VRE, spectral "edges" produced in part by photosynthetic or nonphotosynthetic pigments, may likewise present potential evidence of life. Polarization signatures have the capacity to discriminate between biotic and abiotic "edge" features in the face of false positives from band-gap generating material. Temporal biosignatures -- modulations in measurable quantities such as gas abundances (e.g., CO2), surface features, or emission of light (e.g., fluorescence, bioluminescence) that can be directly linked to the actions of a biosphere -- are in general less well studied than surface or gaseous biosignatures. However, remote observations of Earth's biosphere nonetheless provide proofs of concept for these techniques and are reviewed here. Surface and temporal biosignatures provide complementary information to gaseous biosignatures, and while likely more challenging to observe, would contribute information inaccessible from study of the time-averaged atmospheric composition alone.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, review to appear in Handbook of Exoplanets. Fixed figure conversion error
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