Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

PMCID: PMC3505463The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/12/187. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Age difference between heterosexual partners in Britain: Implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis

Heterosexual partners often differ in age. Integrating realistic patterns of sexual mixing by age into dynamic transmission models has been challenging. The effects of these patterns on the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI) including Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia), the most common bacterial STI are not well understood. We describe age mixing between new heterosexual partners using age- and sex-specific data about sexual behavior reported by people aged 16-63 years in the 2000 and 2010 British National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. We incorporate mixing patterns into a compartmental transmission model fitted to age- and sex-specific, chlamydia positivity from the same surveys, to investigate C. trachomatis transmission. We show that distributions of ages of new sex partners reported by women and by men in Britain are not consistent with each other. After balancing these distributions, new heterosexual partnerships tend to involve men who are older than women (median age difference 2, IQR -1, 5 years). We identified the most likely age combinations of heterosexual partners where incident C. trachomatis infections are generated. The model results show that in >50% of chlamydia transmitting partnerships, at least one partner is ≥25 years old. This study illustrates how sexual behavior data can be used to reconstruct detailed sexual mixing patterns by age, and how these patterns can be integrated into dynamic transmission models. The proposed framework can be extended to study the effects of age-dependent transmission on incidence in any STI

Implications of CTL-Mediated Killing of HIV-Infected Cells during the Non-Productive Stage of Infection

Patients infected with HIV exhibit orders of magnitude differences in their set-point levels of the plasma viral load. As to what extent this variation is due to differences in the efficacy of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response in these patients is unclear. Several studies have shown that HIV-infected CD4+ T cells also present viral epitopes that are recognized by CTLs before the productive stage of infection, i.e., during the intracellular eclipse phase before the infected cell starts to produce new viral particles. Here, we use mathematical modeling to investigate the potential impact of early killing of HIV-infected cells on viral replication. We suggest that the majority of CTL-mediated killing could occur during the viral eclipse phase, and that the killing of virus-producing cells could be substantially lower at later stages due to MHC-I-down-regulation. Such a mechanism is in agreement with several experimental observations that include CD8+ T cell depletion and antiretroviral drug treatment. This indicates a potentially important role of CTL-mediated killing during the non-productive stage of HIV-infected cells

Evolutionary and pulsational properties of white dwarf stars

Abridged. White dwarf stars are the final evolutionary stage of the vast majority of stars, including our Sun. The study of white dwarfs has potential applications to different fields of astrophysics. In particular, they can be used as independent reliable cosmic clocks, and can also provide valuable information about the fundamental parameters of a wide variety of stellar populations, like our Galaxy and open and globular clusters. In addition, the high densities and temperatures characterizing white dwarfs allow to use these stars as cosmic laboratories for studying physical processes under extreme conditions that cannot be achieved in terrestrial laboratories. They can be used to constrain fundamental properties of elementary particles such as axions and neutrinos, and to study problems related to the variation of fundamental constants. In this work, we review the essentials of the physics of white dwarf stars. Special emphasis is placed on the physical processes that lead to the formation of white dwarfs as well as on the different energy sources and processes responsible for chemical abundance changes that occur along their evolution. Moreover, in the course of their lives, white dwarfs cross different pulsational instability strips. The existence of these instability strips provides astronomers with an unique opportunity to peer into their internal structure that would otherwise remain hidden from observers. We will show that this allows to measure with unprecedented precision the stellar masses and to infer their envelope thicknesses, to probe the core chemical stratification, and to detect rotation rates and magnetic fields. Consequently, in this work, we also review the pulsational properties of white dwarfs and the most recent applications of white dwarf asteroseismology.Comment: 85 pages, 28 figures. To be published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

How robust are the natural history parameters used in chlamydia transmission dynamic models? A systematic review

Transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses often form part of the decision making process when introducing new chlamydia screening interventions. Outputs from these transmission dynamic models can vary depending on the values of the parameters used to describe the infection. Therefore these values can have an important influence on policy and resource allocation. The risk of progression from infection to pelvic inflammatory disease has been extensively studied but the parameters which govern the transmission dynamics are frequently neglected. We conducted a systematic review of transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses of chlamydia screening interventions to critically assess the source and variability of the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic, the duration of infection and the transmission probability. We identified nine relevant studies in Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane database. We found that there is a wide variation in their natural history parameters, including an absolute difference in the proportion of asymptomatic infections of 25% in women and 75% in men, a six-fold difference in the duration of asymptomatic infection and a four-fold difference in the per act transmission probability. We consider that much of this variation can be explained by a lack of consensus in the literature. We found that a significant proportion of parameter values were referenced back to the early chlamydia literature, before the introduction of nucleic acid modes of diagnosis and the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals. In conclusion, authors should use high quality contemporary evidence to inform their parameter values, clearly document their assumptions and make appropriate use of sensitivity analysis. This will help to make models more transparent and increase their utility to policy makers

Recombination rate and selection strength in HIV intra-patient evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible, as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes is available.Comment: to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog

Fitness Ranking of Individual Mutants Drives Patterns of Epistatic Interactions in HIV-1

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Virus Replication Strategies and the Critical CTL Numbers Required for the Control of Infection

Vaccines that elicit protective cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) may improve on or augment those designed primarily to elicit antibody responses. However, we have little basis for estimating the numbers of CTL required for sterilising immunity at an infection site. To address this we begin with a theoretical estimate obtained from measurements of CTL surveillance rates and the growth rate of a virus. We show how this estimate needs to be modified to account for (i) the dynamics of CTL-infected cell conjugates, and (ii) features of the virus lifecycle in infected cells. We show that provided the inoculum size of the virus is low, the dynamics of CTL-infected cell conjugates can be ignored, but knowledge of virus life-histories is required for estimating critical thresholds of CTL densities. We show that accounting for virus replication strategies increases estimates of the minimum density of CTL required for immunity over those obtained with the canonical model of virus dynamics, and demonstrate that this modeling framework allows us to predict and compare the ability of CTL to control viruses with different life history strategies. As an example we predict that lytic viruses are more difficult to control than budding viruses when net reproduction rates and infected cell lifetimes are controlled for. Further, we use data from acute SIV infection in rhesus macaques to calculate a lower bound on the density of CTL that a vaccine must generate to control infection at the entry site. We propose that critical CTL densities can be better estimated either using quantitative models incorporating virus life histories or with in vivo assays using virus-infected cells rather than peptide-pulsed targets

Effects of thymic selection of the T cell repertoire on HLA-class I associated control of HIV infection

Without therapy, most people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) ultimately progress to AIDS. Rare individuals (‘elite controllers’) maintain very low levels of HIV RNA without therapy, thereby making disease progression and transmission unlikely. Certain HLA class I alleles are markedly enriched in elite controllers, with the highest association observed for HLA-B57 (ref. 1). Because HLA molecules present viral peptides that activate CD8+ T cells, an immune-mediated mechanism is probably responsible for superior control of HIV. Here we describe how the peptide-binding characteristics of HLA-B57 molecules affect thymic development such that, compared to other HLA-restricted T cells, a larger fraction of the naive repertoire of B57-restricted clones recognizes a viral epitope, and these T cells are more cross-reactive to mutants of targeted epitopes. Our calculations predict that such a T-cell repertoire imposes strong immune pressure on immunodominant HIV epitopes and emergent mutants, thereby promoting efficient control of the virus. Supporting these predictions, in a large cohort of HLA-typed individuals, our experiments show that the relative ability of HLA-B alleles to control HIV correlates with their peptide-binding characteristics that affect thymic development. Our results provide a conceptual framework that unifies diverse empirical observations, and have implications for vaccination strategies.Mark and Lisa Schwartz FoundationNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Director’s Pioneer award)Philip T. and Susan M. Ragon FoundationJane Coffin Childs Memorial Fund for Medical ResearchBill & Melinda Gates FoundationNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (contract no. HHSN261200800001E)National Institutes of Health (U.S.). Intramural Research ProgramNational Cancer Institute (U.S.)Center for Cancer Research (National Cancer Institute (U.S.)

A prototype telepresence robot for use in the investigation of ebola and lassa virus threatened villages in Nigeria

The article investigates the idea of low-cost, telepresence-based mobile robots for eventual use within villages and rural areas in Nigeria, where diseases such as the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) and Lassa Haemorrhagic Fever (LHF) are common, yet human intervention is constrained due to the great risk of transmission through bodily fluids. To illustrate the concept and practical issues arising, a systems design approach is taken to identify some of the engineering requirements; and, in the focus of this article, a prototype has been developed at Lancaster University. The robotic device is semi-humanoid in that the upper half features two 7-DOF manipulators, designed in part to resemble human operation, while the lower half consists of a four-wheeled base, prioritising ease of operation and reliability over the flexibility offered by a leg-based system