Predicting cost of care using self-reported health status data

BACKGROUND: We examined whether self-reported employee health status data can improve the performance of administrative data-based models for predicting future high health costs, and develop a predictive model for predicting new high cost individuals. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from 8,917 Safeway employees self-insured by Safeway during 2008 and 2009. We created models using step-wise multivariable logistic regression starting with health services use data, then socio-demographic data, and finally adding the self-reported health status data to the model. RESULTS: Adding self-reported health data to the baseline model that included only administrative data (health services use and demographic variables; c-statistic = 0.63) increased the model” predictive power (c-statistic = 0.70). Risk factors associated with being a new high cost individual in 2009 were: 1) had one or more ED visits in 2008 (adjusted OR: 1.87, 95 % CI: 1.52, 2.30), 2) had one or more hospitalizations in 2008 (adjusted OR: 1.95, 95 % CI: 1.38, 2.77), 3) being female (adjusted OR: 1.34, 95 % CI: 1.16, 1.55), 4) increasing age (compared with age 18-35, adjusted OR for 36-49 years: 1.28; 95 % CI: 1.03, 1.60; adjusted OR for 50-64 years: 1.92, 95 % CI: 1.55, 2.39; adjusted OR for 65+ years: 3.75, 95 % CI: 2.67, 2.23), 5) the presence of self-reported depression (adjusted OR: 1.53, 95 % CI: 1.29, 1.81), 6) chronic pain (adjusted OR: 2.22, 95 % CI: 1.81, 2.72), 7) diabetes (adjusted OR: 1.73, 95 % CI: 1.35, 2.23), 8) high blood pressure (adjusted OR: 1.42, 95 % CI: 1.21, 1.67), and 9) above average BMI (adjusted OR: 1.20, 95 % CI: 1.04, 1.38). DISCUSSION: The comparison of the models between the full sample and the sample without theprevious high cost members indicated significant differences in the predictors. This has importantimplications for models using only the health service use (administrative data) given that the past high costis significantly correlated with future high cost and often drive the predictive models. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported health data improved the ability of our model to identify individuals at risk for being high cost beyond what was possible with administrative data alone

Protocol for The International Cohort on Lifestyle Determinants of Health Study: A Longitudinal Investigation of Complementary and Integrative Health Utilization in Postsecondary Education Students.

Objectives: The specific aims are: 1) To characterize the health, wellness, and lifestyle of graduate and undergraduate students, and how these characteristics change over time; 2) To evaluate associations between lifestyle factors and gut microbiota populations and diversity; and 3) To evaluate associations between stress and stress management practices with sleep habits, quality of life, and overall health. Design: The International Cohort on Lifestyle Determinants of Health (INCLD Health) longitudinal cohort study is designed to assess health behaviors and lifestyle practices amongst adults studying complementary and integrative health (CIH) and higher-education students more generally after at least one to six years of exposure to CIH education. INCLD Health will adhere to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines. Settings/Location: Colleges and universities with a CIH focus or interest with the flagship site being the National University of Natural Medicine. Participants: Adults currently enrolled in a college or university with a CIH focus or interest. Outcome Measures: Study visits will be conducted at baseline, 6 months, then every 12 months until the end of each participants' degree program. Measures include anthropometrics; serum and salivary biomarkers of cardiovascular risk, reproductive hormones, and cortisol; nutritional intake measured by a digital food frequency questionnaire; sequencing of fecal microbiota; plus validated questionnaires investigating mood, perceived stress, stress management practices, physical activity, sleep, and wellness. Conclusions: The INCLD Health Study, approved by the NUNM IRB in late 2018, will enroll a unique cohort of adults to characterize the use of CIH practices in relation to short- and long-term health. Our study design provides a breadth of information that could be implemented at multiple sites internationally allowing for comparisons across diverse student cohorts with relatively low cost and personnel

“Am I my genes?”: Questions of identity among individuals confronting genetic disease

Purpose: To explore many questions raised by genetics concerning personal identities that have not been fully investigated. Methods: We interviewed in depth, for 2 hours each, 64 individuals who had or were at risk for Huntington disease, breast cancer, or alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Results: These individuals struggled with several difficult issues of identity. They drew on a range of genotypes and phenotypes (e.g., family history alone; mutations, but no symptoms; or symptoms). They often felt that their predicament did not fit preexisting categories well (e.g., “sick,” “healthy,” “disabled,” “predisposed”), due in part to uncertainties involved (e.g., unclear prognoses, since mutations may not produce symptoms). Hence, individuals varied in how much genetics affected their identity, in what ways, and how negatively. Factors emerged related to disease, family history, and other sources of identity. These identities may, in turn, shape disclosure, coping, and other health decisions. Conclusions: Individuals struggle to construct a genetic identity. They view genetic information in highly subjective ways, varying widely in what aspects of genetic information they focus on and how. These data have important implications for education of providers (to assist patients with these issues), patients, and family members; and for research, to understand these issues more fully

Contribution of discourse and morphosyntax skills to reading comprehension in Chinese dyslexic and typically developing children

This study aimed at identifying important skills for reading comprehension in Chinese dyslexic children and their typically developing counterparts matched on age (CA controls) or reading level (RL controls). The children were assessed on Chinese reading comprehension, cognitive, and reading-related skills. Results showed that the dyslexic children performed significantly less well than the CA controls but similarly to RL controls in most measures. Results of multiple regression analyses showed that word-level reading-related skills like oral vocabulary and word semantics were found to be strong predictors of reading comprehension among typically developing junior graders and dyslexic readers of senior grades, whereas morphosyntax, a text-level skill, was most predictive for typically developing senior graders. It was concluded that discourse and morphosyntax skills are particularly important for reading comprehension in the non-inflectional and topic-prominent Chinese system

Thermodynamics of RNA structures by Wang–Landau sampling

Motivation: Thermodynamics-based dynamic programming RNA secondary structure algorithms have been of immense importance in molecular biology, where applications range from the detection of novel selenoproteins using expressed sequence tag (EST) data, to the determination of microRNA genes and their targets. Dynamic programming algorithms have been developed to compute the minimum free energy secondary structure and partition function of a given RNA sequence, the minimum free-energy and partition function for the hybridization of two RNA molecules, etc. However, the applicability of dynamic programming methods depends on disallowing certain types of interactions (pseudoknots, zig-zags, etc.), as their inclusion renders structure prediction an nondeterministic polynomial time (NP)-complete problem. Nevertheless, such interactions have been observed in X-ray structures

Focal Cerebral Magnetic Resonance Changes Associated with Partial Status Epilepticus

We report 2 patients with transient abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) associated with partial status epilepticus (SE). A man with a 4-month history of partial seizures had complex partial SE for 9 days, with left temporal maximum on ictal EEG. Left temporal lobe T 2 signal was increased on MRI during SE, but cerebral MRI was normal 9 weeks later. A woman with “cryptogenic” temporal lobe epilepsy for 16 years had complex partial SE for 1 week, with right temporal maximum on ictal EEG. T 2 Signal was increased over the entire right temporal lobe, extending into the insula, without mass effect, on MRI 1 month after SE ended. Repeat MRI 1 month later showed marked decrease in volume of increased T 2 intensity, without gadolinium enhancement, but with mild mass effect over the right anteroinferomesial temporal areas. A gemistocytic astrocytoma was resected. Focal cerebral MRI abnormalities consistent with cerebral edema may be due to partial SE but also may indicate underlying glioma, even in long-standing partial epilepsy. Focal structural imaging changes consistent with neoplasm should be followed to full resolution after partial SE.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65221/1/j.1528-1157.1994.tb02909.x.pd

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Genetic characterization of large parathyroid adenomas

In this study, we genetically characterized parathyroid adenomas with large glandular weights, for which independent observations suggest pronounced clinical manifestations. Large parathyroid adenomas (LPTAs) were defined as the 5% largest sporadic parathyroid adenomas identified among the 590 cases operated in our institution during 2005–2009. The LPTA group showed a higher relative number of male cases and significantly higher levels of total plasma and ionized serum calcium (P<0.001). Further analysis of 21 LPTAs revealed low MIB1 proliferation index (0.1–1.5%), MEN1 mutations in five cases, and one HRPT2 (CDC73) mutation. Total or partial loss of parafibromin expression was observed in ten tumors, two of which also showed loss of APC expression. Using array CGH, we demonstrated recurrent copy number alterations most frequently involving loss in 1p (29%), gain in 5 (38%), and loss in 11q (33%). Totally, 21 minimal overlapping regions were defined for losses in 1p, 7q, 9p, 11, and 15q and gains in 3q, 5, 7p, 8p, 16q, 17p, and 19q. In addition, 12 tumors showed gross alterations of entire or almost entire chromosomes most frequently gain of 5 and loss of chromosome 11. While gain of 5 was the most frequent alteration observed in LPTAs, it was only detected in a small proportion (4/58 cases, 7%) of parathyroid adenomas. A significant positive correlation was observed between parathyroid hormone level and total copy number gain (r=0.48, P=0.031). These results support that LPTAs represent a group of patients with pronounced parathyroid hyperfunction and associated with specific genomic features

Delayed Toxicity Associated with Soluble Anthrax Toxin Receptor Decoy-Ig Fusion Protein Treatment

Soluble receptor decoy inhibitors, including receptor-immunogloubulin (Ig) fusion proteins, have shown promise as candidate anthrax toxin therapeutics. These agents act by binding to the receptor-interaction site on the protective antigen (PA) toxin subunit, thereby blocking toxin binding to cell surface receptors. Here we have made the surprising observation that co-administration of receptor decoy-Ig fusion proteins significantly delayed, but did not protect, rats challenged with anthrax lethal toxin. The delayed toxicity was associated with the in vivo assembly of a long-lived complex comprised of anthrax lethal toxin and the receptor decoy-Ig inhibitor. Intoxication in this system presumably results from the slow dissociation of the toxin complex from the inhibitor following their prolonged circulation. We conclude that while receptor decoy-Ig proteins represent promising candidates for the early treatment of B. anthracis infection, they may not be suitable for therapeutic use at later stages when fatal levels of toxin have already accumulated in the bloodstream